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April/May Pattern Discussion

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

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So for tomorrow morning the hi-res NAM has a surface temp of 37, dew point of 27, and wind at 5 mph here.  NWS is mentioning possible patchy frost.  RAP has the dew points in the teens today.  Do y'all think frost is likely given that setup?  Unless something changes by this evening, I guess I'm going to try to cover tomatoes and basil up.  What a pain that will be.

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

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So for tomorrow morning the hi-res NAM has a surface temp of 37, dew point of 27, and wind at 5 mph here.  NWS is mentioning possible patchy frost.  RAP has the dew points in the teens today.  Do y'all think frost is likely given that setup?  Unless something changes by this evening, I guess I'm going to try to cover tomatoes and basil up.  What a pain that will be.

While I think you will be okay...you might want to take the better safe than sorry approach.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Looks like another frost threat for Friday night.  Maybe even sooner.  :cry:

Maybe the end of the cold after that.Looks like a ridge building in temps going close to climo.Even showing some lows in the 60's next week.Looks boring though the next several days for us in the Valley

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

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The GFS has been consistent with showing mid to low 30s for tonight all week.  The NAM is at 41.  NWS seems to be going with MOS at 47.  The GFS has been like this all spring for the central valley, as much as 10 degrees too cold right up to the last minute.  As a gardener this has been giving me fits.  Next season I'm keeping my plants in a hoop house until May. 

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JayCee

JayCee

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This is been a rough April as far as cool weather goes.  My folks in southeast KY have had frosts every week, up until a few days ago.  Some of the trees have been nipped.


 


Third spring in a row with pretty chilly temps in March and April. 


 


Starting this weekend, we'll see a complete shift in the pattern with a ridge developing over the Southeast, keeping the stormy weather in the Plains next week.  Much warmer is welcome--but a bit boring with no storms.  No more boring than April has been, I reckon.  At the very least, we'll finally have some 80's. 


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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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This is been a rough April as far as cool weather goes.  My folks in southeast KY have had frosts every week, up until a few days ago.  Some of the trees have been nipped.

 

Third spring in a row with pretty chilly temps in March and April. 

 

Starting this weekend, we'll see a complete shift in the pattern with a ridge developing over the Southeast, keeping the stormy weather in the Plains next week.  Much warmer is welcome--but a bit boring with no storms.  No more boring than April has been, I reckon.  At the very least, we'll finally have some 80's. 

 

yup,weather pattern looks boring.Finally see some MUCape return next weekend,no shear.Like you stated, the severe threat should be in the plains 

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JayCee

JayCee

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yup,weather pattern looks boring.Finally see some MUCape return next weekend,no shear.Like you stated, the severe threat should be in the plains 

Hopefully, it's a temporary lull as the pattern changes from cool to warm.  It appears toward next weekend, and the week afterward, the storminess might shift eastward into our neck of the woods.  After a week of dry weather, we'll need some rain by then.

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

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Early next week is still the next decent chance of rain. Hopefully keep Mother's Day nice, with a chance of storms Monday. Mid South could see some strong storms Monday if 12Z runs today indicate a shift in trend. Better mid-level energy is shown with a punch into the Mid Mississippi Valley at 500/700 mb. However the low level jet is more up in Illinois and the upper level jet stream is past, kind of like the previous enhanced risk of a bust (Apr 25 Tenn side). Veer-back is noted too above 500 mb. That's all day 8 models though at least something to talk about, lol!

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  • 2 weeks later...
jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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West troughs keep tear dropping in the Plains. Makes for great upslope chase days, and a dry Southeast US. SER may stick around another couple weeks. Will be my first watering of the lawn since 2012.

Weeklies show a change in the pattern anyways.Finally kicks out the ridge in a couple weeks like you said

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JayCee

JayCee

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I finally got a good soaking here northeast of Sevierville, TN.  Yesterday, at about 6 p.m. the sky opened up big time, and 1.3" fell in just about an hour.  A much needed downpour.  However, from what I saw on radar, it was pretty isolated.  We really need a big change in the overall pattern for everyone to start seeing some significant rains. 

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