Chinook Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Here's a thought I had. Astronomical summer is June 21-Sep. 22, and astronomical fall is Sep. 23 to Dec. 22. We normally consider that meteorological summer is June 1 to Aug. 30, meteorological fall is Sep. 1 to Nov. 30. What if we defined seasons as such: meteorological Summer is June 5 to Sep. 4, meteorological fall is Sep. 5 to Dec. 4 met. winter is Dec. 5 to Mar. 4, met. spring is Mar. 5 to June 4. Then what is the half-way point of each meteorological season? July 20 is 45 days after June 5. Oct. 20 is 45 days after Sep. 5. Jan. 19 is 45 days after Dec. 5. Apr. 19 is 45 days after Mar. 5. This makes sense with most of the climate normals in the middle of the USA-- that is, July 20th is about the hottest day of the year, on average, and October 20th is about the mid-point of the decreasing temperatures of the fall. January 19 is about the coldest day of the year for areas in the Midwest and Northeast, and April 19 is about the mid-point of the increasing temperatures of the spring. (Note, the coldest day, on average, in Fort Collins is around December 21-25. Merry Christmas!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 P&C here for Wednesday night is 2"-4", which would be a good mood setter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 West Coast ski resorts are off and roaring. Pics are great out of Cali,Oregon, Wash ect. Here in the Northern Plains we'll just sit here and twiddle our thumbs as we wait for first flakes. Models suggest RA to SN for later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 P&C here for Wednesday night is 2"-4", which would be a good mood setter. Hoping for first flakes tomorrow night or Thursday morning; not expecting any accumulation at all in Boulder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 12Z NAM is quite a bit snowier for north-central Colorado than the 06Z and previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 The NWS is forecasting 15" for areas over 12000ft, some accumulations for areas over 7000ft. A trace of snow to 1" for Fort Collins, Boulder, and Denver. About 2"-4" around Cheyenne. This seems reasonable given the GFS/NAM runs over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 12Z NAM is quite a bit snowier for north-central Colorado than the 06Z and previous runs. you should do relatively well at your location; I'd be thrilled to even see a coating down here but model guidance has looked somewhat juicier for favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 The HRRR says 0.6-0.75" of rain for around here. That seems higher than the most of the models predicted. We are getting sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 18Z NAM is even snowier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Fort Collins had 5.0F above average in October; this ties the record warmest October (2003). Fort Collins had three record high temperatures in the 80's in October, and one record warm minimum. So that's two record warm months in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 We have gotten 0.42" of rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 We had a thunderstorm with hail about 1 AM, temp was 40. Dog went nuts. Don't think I've ever seen hail in November. After that melted we had between 0.5" and 1" of snow, first of the season. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Nothing in Boulder proper but higher elevations saw their first snow; went to chatauqua and the peaks were covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Nothing in Boulder proper but higher elevations saw their first snow; went to chatauqua and the peaks were covered. We got about 1" here in Estes, but it quickly melted away this morning and transient light showers ongoing today. Above the timberline in both RMNP and the Mummy Range appears to be filled in, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Looks like next shot is a week from now if the Euro is to believed; 3 consecutive runs with significant snowfalls, but still 7 days out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Looks like next shot is a week from now if the Euro is to believed; 3 consecutive runs with significant snowfalls, but still 7 days out, Good catch, BoulderWx. As of today, the Euro and the GFS showing some QPF (probably snow) around or south of Denver for Tue-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Good catch, BoulderWx. As of today, the Euro and the GFS showing some QPF (probably snow) around or south of Denver for Tue-Wed. Thanks, both models still struggling with just how widespread the event will be as well as potential moisture associated with it; par for the course 5 days out, but nice to see a more active pattern. Euro was also advertising something around the Friday/Saturday timeframe but seemed to back away from that idea with its 12z Run on Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newtownwx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 0z GFS & Euro appear to keep the pattern active through the next 10-14 days with a few solid cold shots. The Euro looks especially juicy for the system early-mid next week. Hopefully we can build that snow pack early and often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 0z GFS & Euro appear to keep the pattern active through the next 10-14 days with a few solid cold shots. The Euro looks especially juicy for the system early-mid next week. Hopefully we can build that snow pack early and often! Yeah, just reviewed the models from last night, for the Boulder area, they currently portray the following: GFS (06z): 1-3" CMC (0z): 1-2" Euro (0z): 3-5" NAM (6z): 0-1" (more to the west and to the east) I'd be happy with solid inch or two to get the season started; anything else will be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Latest Euro still supporting a 2-4" type snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Looks like a quick hitter snowstorm with some possibly some frontogenesis banding or sort-of-convective snowfall. If there is too much north wind, Fort Collins to Greeley might get too much dry air under the clouds. Certainly looks like a strong north wind. 700mb may be close to 0C at 00z Wednesday-- perhaps some areas will get a rain shower before snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Question for anyone with more knowledge than myself. I'm noticing on several of the models, there seems to be a lack of qpf output around the boulder/denver metro, with significantly more precip on either side. I recently moved from the east coast, and the only time I would see those relatively large gaps of qpf was in miller b situations, where storms would skip to the coast, leaving an area 'dry slotted'. It this something to do with the mountains, dry slotting the immediate areas to their east, or is it more of a function of the models depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Question for anyone with more knowledge than myself. I'm noticing on several of the models, there seems to be a lack of qpf output around the boulder/denver metro, with significantly more precip on either side. I recently moved from the east coast, and the only time I would see those relatively large gaps of qpf was in miller b situations, where storms would skip to the coast, leaving an area 'dry slotted'. It this something to do with the mountains, dry slotting the immediate areas to their east, or is it more of a function of the models depiction? Don't know if I have more knowledge but I have now 5+ years experience here, after moving from the East Coast myself. Unfortunately, we don't get the kind of excitement they do on the East Coast nearly as often, due to less moisture, less thermodynamics with the ocean and Gulf Stream, etc. We see the effect you mention a lot, both in modeling and in reality, though my general sense from reviewing, say, COCORaHS data is that the effect in reality is slightly less than with the models (i.e. we don't get shafted quite as much as models would indicate). I do think that downsloping/shadowing plus lower elevations both contribute to this effect. I live in the south metro area, near Centennial airport and about 400 feet higher than downtown, and we frequently get just a tad more than much of the metro area. Boulder tends to be a winner in snow situations recently, though.... proximity to upslope is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Don't know if I have more knowledge but I have now 5+ years experience here, after moving from the East Coast myself. Unfortunately, we don't get the kind of excitement they do on the East Coast nearly as often, due to less moisture, less thermodynamics with the ocean and Gulf Stream, etc. We see the effect you mention a lot, both in modeling and in reality, though my general sense from reviewing, say, COCORaHS data is that the effect in reality is slightly less than with the models (i.e. we don't get shafted quite as much as models would indicate). I do think that downsloping/shadowing plus lower elevations both contribute to this effect. I live in the south metro area, near Centennial airport and about 400 feet higher than downtown, and we frequently get just a tad more than much of the metro area. Boulder tends to be a winner in snow situations recently, though.... proximity to upslope is better. really appreciate you sharing the insights; something I'll be interested in observing throughout the winter. also, I've heard what you described quite a bit; average slightly more snow, but comes more gradually opposed to the major storms we usually get back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Boulder, as of the NOWDATA web page on the NWS Denver/Boulder web page, gets 88.3" of snow per year. Denver/Stapleton is 53.8". Fort Collins, 55.8", Greeley, 40.8". The Denver metro area is known for getting 50" to 70" of snow per year, depending on the proximity to the foothills or the Palmer Divide. In my estimation, the Palmer Divide gets about 80" per year. Our snow season lasts from October 1st to about May 10th. Boulder gets pounded with heavy snow at various times, over the course of these 222 days. The length of the snow season is long compared to the East Coast. Boulder gets the most snow in the months of November, December, and March. The nearby Flatiron Range, and the proximity to the Continental Divide (12000ft) makes Boulder a good location for extreme upslope lift. Boulder is also a location of extreme downslope Chinook winds and warm temperatures from 60 to 70 on some days in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 NWS just issued a Blizzard Watch for much of NE Colorado. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO305 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015...A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAYMORNING....A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILLBE MOVING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND UNDERGOING RAPIDINTENSIFICATION. RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING WILLCHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSOINCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSEBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAYMORNING. VISIBILITIES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE RESTRICTED BY THEBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS COULDBECOME DANGEROUS DUE TO THE WINTRY MIX OF WEATHER.COZ035-038-100615-/O.NEW.KBOU.BZ.A.0001.151111T0700Z-151111T1600Z/LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...NEDERLAND...RED FEATHER LAKES...FORT COLLINS...HEREFORD...LOVELAND...NUNN305 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* TIMING...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONGWINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLYWEDNESDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 6500FEET...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITHGUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUETHROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCEVISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS.* IMPACTS...NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS WAYS WILL BE ESPECIALLYSUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG CROSS WINDS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILLALSO PRODUCE SNOWPACKED AND SLICK ROADWAYS...A SEVERELY RESTRICTVISIBILITIES IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS. HIGHWAY 287 FROM FORTCOLLINS TO THE WYOMING STATELINE WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/ORBLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERYDANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 NWS just issued a Blizzard Watch for much of NE Colorado. yeah it should be fun up your way, im jealous!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 yeah it should be fun up your way, im jealous!! If that happened in the Denver Metro area, there would be something like 5000 accidents and it would take us till noon to get to work, by which time it would be sunny and 45. Don't get me started on people who move here from places where it doesn't snow. Grrr..... enjoy, at least we have something to talk about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 I truly do not know if heavy snow will coincide with strong winds here. Typically we have a areas of 1-2" of snow and then the north winds get going, sometimes more like 20mph here. So blizzard conditions are not typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newtownwx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Excellent example of lee cyclogenesis. Looks like a nice, quick hit for all locations, but I would think north of 70 will do best. The location of the 700 MB low is nearly identical between the NAM, GFS, and Euro @ 12Z on Wednesday. Can't wait to take some turns this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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