Chinook Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 More on the warm September. Note, Cheyenne also had a record warm September with an average temp of 64.9 and 0.14" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Now that we're in a strong El Nino, going towards winter, how does that affect the global jet streams? Check these annotated pictures with 250mb height anomalies for mod/strong El Ninos and mod/strong La Ninas. The global response of jet streams is almost opposite, comparing the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Torch coming back this weekend after a 3-4 day respite. My kids are wondering why the pools are not still open. My lawn is out of dormancy and asking for water. Fearing that my first snowfall prediction, though still a ways off, will go up in smoke (literally). El Nino, no, el fuego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Fort Collins was 5.4 degrees F above average in September, and it was the record warmest September (no surprise there.) Fort Collins got 0.20" of rain. My house got about 0.27" of rain in September. The last 90 degree day here was September 27th. That is only one day off from the record latest 90 degree day of September 28th. My house got about 0.48" of rain since October 1st. It was a nice little cool and wet period there; it seemed quite dreary on 10/2, 10/4, and 10/6. Those days were a huge contrast to September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2015 Author Share Posted October 11, 2015 Broken Bow Nebraska got to 97 today with a dew point of 43. That's an incredible temperature for October 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 Southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota also in the 90's today. That's really unusual, like 30-40 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Broken Bow NE hit 98, and Fargo ND hit 97 (!!). The 97 in Fargo was 38 degrees above normal. It set a new monthly record by 4 degrees, and a new daily record by 12 degrees. Back to reality this morning - currently 49 and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Fort Collins broke a record high on Sunday with a high of 86. On Monday, it was cooler with high in the 70's, which was still above normal. Today, it was 82. At this rate, maybe the whole winter will be like Phoenix's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 We should start taking bets on October temps. At this point I'm guessing DEN will be about +7 DFN for the month. Record is +9, amazingly enough. I have not seen the view of the Front Range mountains snowless anywhere close to this late since we moved here (though that has only been 6 falls), and that includes the two big fire years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Temperature anomaly images for the surface, 850mb, and 700mb, for the unusual month of September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 The GFS and ECMWF are starting to come into some agreement with regards to a storm system at mid-week. Some rain/snow showers will affect Colorado on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a 500mb low near Phoenix will kick northeastward and help precipitation move across Colorado and New Mexico. Southern and SE Colorado, including Denver, should get some areas of heavier rain/snow, depending on elevation. Eastern New Mexico may get rains of 1-2". Perhaps there is some chance for precipitation on Fri/Sat (Oct 23/24). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Wednesday: Rain. High near 48. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Verbatim from the NWS. I don't think I've seen this forecast in a long, long time. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 some rain and thunder in downtown Denver (for the first time in ?) crazy warm October so far. These are the temp anomalies from Oct 1 to 19 How warm was October 6-19 relative to normal? Almost a record warm 2-week period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 If the weather could only repeat this storm today with 32 degrees or less, we would have an upslope snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 If the weather could only repeat this storm today with 32 degrees or less, we would have an upslope snowstorm. I was thinking the same thing. If the temperatures had merely been normal this time of year, Denver could have gotten a foot of snow, mountains 2 ft+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 48-hour storm total (October 20-22) was about 1.50" near my house, 1.40" at CSU weather station. That 2(or 3) day storm total at my house was more than each of the three preceding months and nearly as much as June. June: 1.85" July: 1.46" August: 0.89" September: 0.27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 7-day total southwestern region precipitation--some of it was in the form of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 9-day GFS forecast suggests first snow possible around Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Decent chance of snow here next Tues-Wed. Certainly cold enough, just a matter of moisture. GFS shows wraparound for SLC with lake effect snow following. ECMWF is largely dry. Canadian is similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Decent chance of snow here next Tues-Wed. Certainly cold enough, just a matter of moisture. GFS shows wraparound for SLC with lake effect snow following. ECMWF is largely dry. Canadian is similar to the GFS. The last 3 runs of the GFS (12z, 18z, 00z) have shown heavy snow for eastern Colorado around Nov. 6. That's something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 The last 3 runs of the GFS (12z, 18z, 00z) have shown heavy snow for eastern Colorado around Nov. 6. That's something! Today's 6Z pulled away from the idea a bit, but still showing some snow; I just moved to Boulder and am anxiously awaiting the first snow; I know I don't get nearly as much here as say 10 miles west, but hoping to get some before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Today's 6Z pulled away from the idea a bit, but still showing some snow; I just moved to Boulder and am anxiously awaiting the first snow; I know I don't get nearly as much here as say 10 miles west, but hoping to get some before Thanksgiving. Welcome! I just moved here in September (to Estes Park) from NW Indiana. Already had a couple of good quality snows up in RMNP, and a one incher in town a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Good to see some interest in the Mountain West Discussion thread. The weather really has been -boring- and very frequently warmer than normal from late July to the present day. At least we got some sizeable rainfall last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Good to see some interest in the Mountain West Discussion thread. The weather really has been -boring- and very frequently warmer than normal from late July to the present day. At least we got some sizeable rainfall last week. Will definitely be in here over the winter; the mid-atlantic and NE threads were a lot more active, understandably so based on the population. Today's 12Z euro depicted a chance of snow in the 7-9 day range, but still some time away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Now that the winter is rolling in the mountainous areas: Mt. Rainier, Washington will be expecting 87-108 inches this week, as per NWS point&click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Will definitely be in here over the winter; the mid-atlantic and NE threads were a lot more active, understandably so based on the population. Today's 12Z euro depicted a chance of snow in the 7-9 day range, but still some time away. Euro still hinting at the possibility of two snow chances for much of CO next Thursday and Saturday. Has some support from the CMC (I know), on the Saturday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 FWIW, the GFS is trending way down on snowfall for next week. Areas under 7000ft have about zero snow as of today's 12z GFS run. Maybe the GFS will trend back up some time. My house got about 1.98" of rain this month, with no snow. The averages are 1.15" total precip and 3.6" snow. Temp departure at Salt Lake City is 7.5 degrees F above normal this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 FWIW, the GFS is trending way down on snowfall for next week. Areas under 7000ft have about zero snow as of today's 12z GFS run. Maybe the GFS will trend back up some time. My house got about 1.98" of rain this month, with no snow. The averages are 1.15" total precip and 3.6" snow. Temp departure at Salt Lake City is 7.5 degrees F above normal this month. yeah, and now 12Z EURO scaling way back as well; models have trouble handling cut off lows but not encouraging to see the model trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 FWIW, the GFS is trending way down on snowfall for next week. Areas under 7000ft have about zero snow as of today's 12z GFS run. Maybe the GFS will trend back up some time. My house got about 1.98" of rain this month, with no snow. The averages are 1.15" total precip and 3.6" snow. Temp departure at Salt Lake City is 7.5 degrees F above normal this month. yeah, and now 12Z EURO scaling way back as well; models have trouble handling cut off lows but not encouraging to see the model trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 For all of you who are new to the Mountain Time Zone-- as of tomorrow, 18z will be 11:00AM, 00z will be 5:00PM and 06z will be 11:00PM. It's always tough to figure out that 7 hr difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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