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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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Here's some METARs from Limon Colorado. 7:25 and 7:55AM, heavy snow, 1/4 mile visibility, wind 31 or 38kt gusting to 47 or 48kt. Now that's a blizzard.

 

KLIC 171425Z AUTO 34038G48KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV008 M04/M04 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 34048/1424 P0001 T10391044

 

KLIC 171455Z AUTO 34031G47KT 1/4SM FZFG VV006 M04/M04 A2964 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/1437 SNEMM SLP050 P0002 60007 T10391044 53009 PWINO FZRANO $

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We are getting some winds here. I don't think it has been this windy here since last winter or the winter before that. Everything is shaking around. Bunches of leaves are traveling down the street at 25mph. The weather station on the edge of town had a wind gust in the upper 60's mph. KFNL had a max of only 39kt (44mph). Wind gusts in Greeley are up there in the 50's mph range

 

KGXY 181735Z AUTO 30037G49KT 10SM CLR 12/M04 A2949 RMK AO1

 

 

 

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0" in Boulder. Barely got any flakes. I'm not too surprised given the model disagreement late into the event.

was a tough one, got nervous as I saw the Sr guidance roll in and as shown, we got nothing. 

 

hoping we get a few storms this winter, not fun missing out on the first two. 

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Yeah, the HRRR "bait and switch" around 8 PM on Monday was terrible. If it ends up being like last winter at all though (good analog), Boulder will have plenty to shovel before all is said and done, though may not be able to put the shovel away for good till Memorial Day. Next week's possibility is looking good for areas further north. Winds just need to come around to the E a little more and you'll be all set.

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Yeah, the HRRR "bait and switch" around 8 PM on Monday was terrible. If it ends up being like last winter at all though (good analog), Boulder will have plenty to shovel before all is said and done, though may not be able to put the shovel away for good till Memorial Day. Next week's possibility is looking good for areas further north. Winds just need to come around to the E a little more and you'll be all set.

 

Thanks man, appreciate it; unfortunately Ill be on the east coast for thanksgiving, which means we will no doubt get a storm here during that time frame - it's all good, there are still several months of winter yet, and despite an anticipated slow-start to december, I'll be hoping we can get one good storm before christmas. 

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It is feeling much more like a mid-winter afternoon in the Midwest now. After a high of 50 before the cold front, we are now at 33 with a few snow flurries and some breeze. It is 3:26 and it feels like sunset is coming soon-- but it's not quite that bad. Also 32-34 around the Denver metro.

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The 12z GFS is showing a little bit more snow that I expected for the Front Range corridor, about 6 to 8". I was expecting light snow and possibly freezing drizzle, up to 3" in the Front Range corridor.

 

--

NWS Boulder discussion this morning

--

AT THIS POINT BEST TO
BROAD BRUSH AREA WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS EXCEPT LIKELY SNOW
IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. STILL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH 1-3 INCHES OVER URBAN CORRIDOR WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
4-6 INCHES IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS AMOUNTS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH BY FRIDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 20S
THROUGH FRIDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS EVEN HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HANDLING THE GREAT BASIN
LOW.

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Looks like a somewhat surprisingly decent event heading the way of Denver again? Watching the local forecasts it seems like they were only expecting an inch or two leading up until about yesterday, all of a sudden things look like sticking around a little longer and some parts of the metro could be looking at 3-6". Some decent totals into Wyoming too. 

 

3 snow events in 3 weeks! Something we can only dream of back home!

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The NWS generally predicting 2-6" of snow for most of the cities for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, as well as over 8" for the high mountains. The light easterly wind upslope is very good for Fort Collins. Fort Collins gets less snow when the wind is too northerly. Without a deep-layer upslope I won't expect over 6" here, so this is reasonable. For many of the previous model runs, shallow-layer upslope snow looked likely. This is really no surprise that the NWS is forecasting 2"+ for many areas.

 

Cold temps may help the snow ratios to be greater than 10:1. There may be snow ratios of 15:1 for areas over 7000ft.

 

 

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Fort Collins had some freezing drizzle Wednesday night. My place got 6 to 7" total from Wednesday night to last night. It is packing down a little bit since the ground is warm. Temps are not yet in the upper 20's and we have had no sunshine since Tuesday or Wednesday. It is looking like a midwinter scene, since the snow didn't melt super quick.

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