BoulderWX Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 If that happened in the Denver Metro area, there would be something like 5000 accidents and it would take us till noon to get to work, by which time it would be sunny and 45. Don't get me started on people who move here from places where it doesn't snow. Grrr..... enjoy, at least we have something to talk about! I hear you, I'm from the NYC area so people are generally smart enough to use mass transportation, walk, or if need be, stay home. 2" with 50 mph winds is a lot more dangerous than a 6-12" snowstorm with no winds in regards to travel. Looks like Boulder gets dry slotted a bit on this, but Denver metro may get in on some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS total QPF accumulation (pivotalweather.com) shows a minimum in the precip at I-25 from Fort Collins to Denver! It shows a maximum in Morgan County. I guess there may be enough dynamics for 2-3" to 4-6" in some of these areas as the NWS graphics claims. NWS weather story, with acuumulations http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=bou&embed=#.VkIrcb_55io Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 A lot of potential with next weeks cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 As of midnight (07z), snow is starting in the foothills, areas above 7000ft. Radar is picking up heavier snow from Larkspur to Monument, and there is possibly some snow in west Denver and Boulder. Easterly winds at 700mb exist from Wyoming down to about Fort Collins. There is only about 55-65% RH at 700mb to 500mb here. So, the system is just starting to develop the cold air and thick cloudcover near here. Not quite there yet. Grand Junction radar is seeing some areas of snow west of the Divide. That's decent. Areas from Laramie up to central Wyoming are getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Definitely snowing in Boulder after a quick bout of rain to start. We've got a coating on cars and grassy surfaces, but the paved surfaces are still too warm for anything to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Definitely snowing in Boulder after a quick bout of rain to start. We've got a coating on cars and grassy surfaces, but the paved surfaces are still too warm for anything to stick. yup, started as snow and at some point went back to rain here in the city; I thought lack of moisture would be the problem, but ended up with mod/hvy rain for the past 3 hours while everywhere else is reporting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Solid 4"+ of paste here at 6 AM, still snowing as of 7 and windier. Neighbor looks to have more like 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Ended at about 6" of cement here. An epic view this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Ended at about 6" of cement here. An epic view this morning. 20151111_072125_resized.jpg great picture! just under an 1" of paste here this morning as well; should be gone by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Ended at about 6" of cement here. An epic view this morning. Nice lawn decoration. Where'd you get that? Our total was 5", ended about 8:00. EXACTLY what the NWS called for with their map yesterday at my house. Interesting that you only got an inch in Boulder but a lot of rain? Musta been that downsloping thing. We do OK with N winds, the slight upslope south of town must do it and the precip rate was so high that there must have been a lot of vertical motion also. I was kind of surprised we didn't get thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 2.0" here. It is melting so fast, I can already see green grass at some spots. There was 0.28" to 0.44" liquid equivalent in Fort Collins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 CoCoRAHS snow totals as of 7AM today. (did the snow stop by 7AM in Denver?) Contours: black is 6", red is 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Finished with 5" in Castle Rock. A few miles west, my Uncle finished with 9". Things get really interesting next week. Depending on track this next low could wallop someone in the front range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Finished with 5" in Castle Rock. A few miles west, my Uncle finished with 9". Things get really interesting next week. Depending on track this next low could wallop someone in the front range. Agreed, currently I'm not going to go against the euro and the gfs agreeing with a W. KS jackpot, but it is 4-5 days out. Hoping it tracks a little further west and we can get in on some of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I had 6.3" yesterday. Since I'm going out of town this weekend, you guys are going to get demolished with the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 I had 6.3" yesterday. Since I'm going out of town this weekend, you guys are going to get demolished with the Tuesday storm. The 00z GFS of last night was a total weenie dream. It has 12 to 39" in northwestern Kansas and nearby areas of Colorado and Nebraska. I suppose it will be very interesting to see if the 500mb low stalls for a long time. I doubt that this kind of QPF will exist on the cold air side of the system. Maybe the mountains will get 6-12" from the system. I don't have much of a guess of the plains right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 So...let's play a game. On a score of 1-10, where 10 is perfectly similar and 1 is perfectly dissimilar, which El Nino years would you all rate as >=7 for sensible weather in the West, and/or global SST anomalies since October? I kind of like 40-41, 41-42, 57-58, 58-59, 72-73, 82-83, 86-87, 87-88, 91-92, 97-98, 06-07, 14-15. CIPS Analogs Guidance was recently showing the coming storm in the West as similar to quite a few that came in 1997, 1982, 1986, 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Is that 60" the 6z GFS is showing near FT Collins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Wowwww and from the NWS Forecast Discussion: THE GFS SHOWS A FIERCE PROLONGED WINDOWOF DEEP MOISTURE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAYEVENING. A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE. IF THE GFS WERE TO COMETRUE...WE WOULD CERTAINLY SEE A MAJOR...EVEN AN ALL TIME RECORD...SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEENTHE MODELS IS SEVERE. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH "CHANCE"S FOR SNOWFROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL DECREASEEVERYTHING. THERE IS COLD AIR WITH THIS STORM...BUT NOTHINGSIGNIFICANT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Wowwww and from the NWS Forecast Discussion: would like to see the euro hop on board before I get too excited... 12Z gfs certainly held serve though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 would like to see the euro hop on board before I get too excited... 12Z gfs certainly held serve though I agree. Anxiously awaiting the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 The GFS has a huge storm. The 00z GFS has over 2.2" of QPF (possibly 22" of snow) and winds above 25kt around DIA and eastward along I-70 on the plains. At least those 25kt winds remind you that blizzard conditions might be possible there. The 06z GFS has 2" to 4" of QPF from the Palmer Divide to Fort Collins!!!! Obviously the GFS predicts that the 500mb low stalls in the perfect location for this type of event. The 00z ECMWF has various areas of snow south of I-70 on the plains, and also in the mountains. The 500mb low does not move so slowly, and it eventually tracks through the OK panhandle. Some heavier areas of snow seem to be from Denver to Raton, NM Most recent discussion from the NWS. --- FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGHWITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BOTTOM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY00Z MONDAY LATE. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OFCOLORADO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA AT 18ZTUESDAY MID AFTERNOON. THE GFS STALLS IT THERE THROUGH 12ZWEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS MOVE IT ALONG TO THE EAST ANDNORTHEAST. AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS STILL HAS NEAR USCENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF HAS PRETTY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THAT TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I had 6.3" yesterday. Since I'm going out of town this weekend, you guys are going to get demolished with the Tuesday storm. Right, but I'll be here. We should measure how many of us have to be out of town in order to get a giant storm. If we all went to a conference somewhere else at the same time, it would be snowmageddon for the Front Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GFS doubled down with the record snowfall. 12z Euro was a swing and a miss for almost all of Eastern Colorado. Which one blinks? GFS I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GFS doubled down with the record snowfall. 12z Euro was a swing and a miss for almost all of Eastern Colorado. Which one blinks? GFS I'm sure. without a doubt the GFS blinks by this time tomorrow if not sooner (i say sooner)... Euro/CMC/Navgem (granted of the three i only pay attention to Euro), all are in line with a much more modest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I just went and bought new snow boots... so yeah, Euro is going to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 12z GFS doubled down with the record snowfall. 12z Euro was a swing and a miss for almost all of Eastern Colorado. Which one blinks? GFS I'm sure. Yes the 12z Euro is certainly more progressive. The QPF is moving out east of the state by 15z Tuesday. The Euro has 0.2" to 0.5" central and southern Colorado, which would be 2-5" with a normal 10:1 ratio and 4-10" with a 20:1 snow ratio in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Shucks, looks like another 3"-6" event. Still time for models to flip though, should have a better handle later tonight 18z/0z runs once some surface data is ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Someone on Weather5280 posted an observation that I think is great... during progressive times of year (Spring/Fall, especially now) it's really hard to get storms that tend to stall, regardless of what the models say. Boy was I hoping though. I was also told by a friend long ago never to look at models, because they are unattainable. But that was a different kind of models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 My web site links to the weather web sites I use most often http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Numerical_Weather_Prediction.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/New_Weather_Links.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Precipitation.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/NWS_Links.html some other weather web pages I have been using often http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ http://aviationweather.gov/metar http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/ http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/usfntsfcwbg.gif my page on Front Range snowstorms of the past http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Heavy_snow_events_Colorado.html http://www.fortcollins.salsite.com/FortCollinsBlizzard.html http://www.fortcollins.salsite.com/FortCollinsSnowstorms.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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