Chinook Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 This is the new Mountain West thread, valid from now to November 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Bump, to boost relevance. Any speculation on whether this pattern change that for a month has always seemed 7-10 days away will result in any real moisture or anything? Crabapple trees blooming 2 weeks + earlier than I've ever seen them, except when I lived in NC in the late 80s. (Go Duke!...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 I could have posted the GFS snow plots from a few days ago (Wed-Thurs of last week) which had about 8" of snow for my area in this storm (tomorrow-Thursday). That isn't going to happen though, as the energy has shifted north, perhaps resulting in just 1-3" of snow for Wyoming. It has been quite dry. Fort Collins got 0.2" of liquid equivalent and about 0.5" of snow from last week. I am wondering if a dry spring will mean a dry summer. On the other hand, the CFSv2 is advertising some rains for this summer. CFSv2 monthlies show blue/green colors for precip anomalies in Colorado in each of the next 6 months. I doubt the rain will be that consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 If El Nino shows up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Lightning and thunder, light rain, and my dog wants to hide in the basement. Surprise! Miller moths can't be far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 New U.S. Drought Monitor: D0 (abnormally dry) for Larimer/Weld/Morgan/Northeast corner of Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 A couple of runs of the GFS have shown heavy snow accumulations for low elevations this week. There seems to be very little consistency in model runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 Even the ECMWF develops a 4-corners low, some 3-hr precip values are pretty high on Thursday. The 12z GFS was crazy. The GFS predicts the storm to stall over Denver for 3 days. It would be an epic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Yeah, and with apologies to Wayne's World, monkeys are going to fly out of my butt. Sorry, just don't buy it the way everything's been going. No science here. Will look again on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 Yeah, well clearly precip has been missing my back yard many many times. GFS has shown many storms that have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Wow 00z GFS is insane for Colorado!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 6z gfs shows about 100% less than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 From BOU: THE GFS IS THE GENERAL OUTLIER HERE KEEPING MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE DATA IT APPEARS THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN MAY HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF VERIFYING AND PROBABLY SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED IN THIS CYCLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2015 Author Share Posted April 14, 2015 the ECMWF drops the upper low a little west then south of the Four Corners, then to Gallup and Albuquerque. Perhaps this will be a bigger precip event for southern Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Interesting delema now, GFS doesn't show much significant snow, every other model does. I'm going to go with every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2015 Author Share Posted April 14, 2015 Model wars are on. The GFS has an elongated trough over Colorado with little snow for the mountains. The ECMWF has this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Would be a really interesting time to be a modelologist. I know it's all advanced physics and math that I haven't done since college, but knowing the "why" behind the differences would really help. I'm still gonna wait 24 hours more before getting excited or frustrated, and at this point I'm not even hoping for snow, just moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 OK, so some banter here to pass the time while models sort themselves out: What does "GFS" mean? - Global Forecast System - Goofy, fo' shizzle - Gosh, freaking schizophrenic - Good for s*** Others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 OK, so some banter here to pass the time while models sort themselves out: What does "GFS" mean? - Global Forecast System - Goofy, fo' shizzle - Gosh, freaking schizophrenic - Good for s*** Others? UKMET and EURO agree on the ULL track. CMC is further south but still yields a similar result. RGEM is similar to the CMC. Only the GFS is refusing to kill the lead energy and reform the low further south. We can stop worrying about the GFS, it's wrong. It will snow and we should be worrying about where the heaviest snow falls, anywhere between the NM border and the WY border is fair game. Tough forecast for Denver and CO Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 Finally the 00z GFS came around to the heavy-precip solution, with a closed 500mb farther north than the ECMWF. This run has 1.5-3" QPF for Fort Collins, Cheyenne, and Laramie, which would be huge. That's still quite a bit of difference from the New Mexico closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 06Z NAM didn't show all that much snow... 12Z NAM is coming out now and boy oh boy, it's going to snow a lot of this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 The official WPC 3-day QPF is up to 2"+ for Larimer County. I have no doubt that could be over 15" of snow for areas over 8000ft. I do think that the majority of this will be rain for my area, at about 5000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 12Z CAIC WRF showing up to 3 ft. in some areas near the divide with western portions of Boulder and Larmier Counties over 2 ft. My house is at 8,500' so I think we're going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 NWS calling for 1-2' with some areas up to 3'. Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO140 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015...SPRING STORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY THROUGHFRIDAY NIGHT....A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY ONTHURSDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVINGINTO COLORADO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASEACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WET HEAVY SNOW ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS ANDFOOTHILLS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THEEXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM HEAVY SNOW COULD LINGERINTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES ISEXPECTED WITH UP TO 36 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAINAND SNOW WITH MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME AREAS ALONG THEFRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SNOWWITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THEPALMER DIVIDE. IF TEMPERATURES END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COLDERTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WOULDINCREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.COZ033>036-160345-/O.UPG.KBOU.WS.A.0005.150417T0000Z-150418T1200Z//O.NEW.KBOU.WS.W.0008.150416T1800Z-150418T1200Z/SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEARCREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMERON PASS...LARAMIE AND MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS...RABBIT EARS RANGE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK...WILLOW CREEK PASS...BERTHOUD PASS...BRECKENRIDGE...EAST SLOPES MOSQUITO RANGE...EAST SLOPES SOUTHERN GORE RANGE...EISENHOWER TUNNEL...INDIAN PEAKS...KENOSHA MOUNTAINS...MOUNT EVANS...WILLIAMS FORK MOUNTAINS...WINTER PARK...ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...NEDERLAND...RED FEATHER LAKES...BAILEY...CENTRAL CITY...EVERGREEN...GEORGETOWN...IDAHO SPRINGS...WESTCREEK140 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM MDTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO6 AM MDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTEDTO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 FEET.* WIND/VISIBILITY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITHGUSTS TO 30 MPH. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW ONE QUARTER MILEAT TIMES DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SNOWPACKED THURSDAY NIGHTWITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL.HEAVY SNOWFALL ON POWER LINES MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OFSNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL INAN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 I am watching a thunderstorm here. I have seen the first few lightning bolts of the year. We also had soft hail fall . It was 1/2" hail that was like a soft snowball, perhaps you might say graupel. And it has been mainly sunny as the hail fell out of the anvil, or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 I am watching a thunderstorm here. I have seen the first few lightning bolts of the year. We also had soft hail fall . It was 1/2" hail that was like a soft snowball, perhaps you might say graupel. And it has been mainly sunny as the hail fell out of the anvil, or something like that. I'm jealous! I've been hoping to see the first lightning of the year for the past couple weeks, but still no dice down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 And it has been mainly sunny as the hail fell out of the anvil, or something like that. Potent updraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 12Z CAIC WRF showing up to 3 ft. in some areas near the divide with western portions of Boulder and Larmier Counties over 2 ft. My house is at 8,500' so I think we're going to get buried. Good luck, 8,500 feet is a good spot to live for these events! I was considering a possible chase to south Denver when the GFS showed the storm a few days back but clearly now Denver will be mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 Some runs of the 4km NAM show 24 and 30" for areas near RMNP (Larimer and Boulder counties), depending on the run. Looks like Cheyenne could be on the edge of a fairly big snow event for them. Even the NWS has 5-10" in the point&click for just outside of Cheyenne! Note: Goodland just had a severe thunderstorm 62mph wind gust at Johnstown CO 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.