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Modicum Mauler (II) - April 8, 2015


NorEastermass128

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I thought the .65 qpf and the soundings looked much better than before and the trend towards a NAM RGEM scenario important

 

 

I see more like 0.20-0.25" of QPF during the critical periods where the atmosphere supports frozen...and it's marginal ice mostly, with perhaps 3-4 hours of pellets south of the NH border. You have to subtract the stuff that falls today from the total through 48 hours.

 

I do agree it trended a bit toward the NAM/RGEM but it is still extremely different at the moment.

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I'm intrigued by the Thursday morning commute impact with possible sleet and freezing rain in my location. Marginal temps around 32 here but could be more like 29 or 30 in the outlying high terrain .

The setup is very similar to the ORH ice storm of 2008..with constant cold and lower Dewpoint air funneling in on stiff NE winds..If we can get most of this to fall after dark..it might be a very fun night

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The setup is very similar to the ORH ice storm of 2008..with constant cold and lower Dewpoint air funneling in on stiff NE winds..If we can get most of this to fall after dark..it might be a very fun night

That is the only similarity. Funneling of lower dews.

 

The rest of the setup is nothing like that storm. Nobody is getting 1-2 inches of ice, that's for sure. :lol:

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The setup is very similar to the ORH ice storm of 2008..with constant cold and lower Dewpoint air funneling in on stiff NE winds..If we can get most of this to fall after dark..it might be a very fun night

:huh: You mean the Dec ice storm? Very similar? Good luck and stay safe.

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Weenie maps...

RGEM...

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

GGEM...

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

 

RGEM is probably a little too enthusiastic, lol...but I could see a GGEM solution with advisory snows verify roughly pike-northward.

 

The one notable thing about the RGEM is that all of it is inside of 36 hours pretty much, which is where it performs well, so I'll keep a close eye on the 18z and 00z runs...if it holds firm, then we may have a pretty wild situation on our hands.

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There were not many that did though, I kind of been watching off and on, But getting snow in april just to be gone in a day or two does nothing for myself, But that's just me

 

Only if it's like 1996 or 2007, or better yet 1982, does April snow have real meaning.  Not in the cards for this month.

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EC is a little snowier for RT 2 to the Mondads it seems. Maybe slightly cooler near pike? Could be just noise at this point, but looks rather snowy Rt 2 area for sure.

 

 

A bit north with the best slug of precip vs RGEM/NAM...and a bit later on timing...more like 18z-06z versus anything in the morning. But that could be a pretty nice burst of snow around 00z-03z in the Rt 2 corridor.

 

It's damned cold too in the BL.

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A bit north with the best slug of precip vs RGEM/NAM...and a bit later on timing...more like 18z-06z versus anything in the morning. But that could be a pretty nice burst of snow around 00z-03z in the Rt 2 corridor.

 

It's damned cold too in the BL.

 

Yeah it was juicier into SW Nh compared to 00z and also a little more robust with QPF after 18z tomorrow as compared to the 00z run.

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Yeah it was juicier into SW Nh compared to 00z and also a little more robust with QPF after 18z tomorrow as compared to the 00z run.

 

Given the EC rarely likes to make big jumps in one run, that was about as good as a trend as you could expect for juicier QPF. 18z and 00z runs should be interesting. First time I've really looked forward to another model cycle in a couple weeks.

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Given the EC rarely likes to make big jumps in one run, that was about as good as a trend as you could expect for juicier QPF. 18z and 00z runs should be interesting. First time I've really looked forward to another model cycle in a couple weeks.

 

Yep. I know some checked out of winter and brushed it off the table when we spoke about how some of the models were interesting last week and over the weekend...but here we are. Sometimes mother nature does not care about time of year, nor have emotions.

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