Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 NWS' AFD doesn't really insinuate too much that they are considering colder soundings ... interesting. They're talking raw and wet, with ZR and sleet issues in the interior... I suppose that much is a slam dunk... but, that NAM being sided with the RGEM inside of 36 hours might be more telling here. I think they may scramble to advise the band between the Pike and Rt 2, and perhaps consider warning in a band just N...or heavily worded advisory. This is happening at night ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 One of the few times where I may actually look forward to being at work for a 2-10pm shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 NWS' AFD doesn't really insinuate too much that it's considering colder soundings ... interesting. They're talking raw and wet, with ZR and sleet issues in the interior... I suppose that much is a slam dunk... but, that NAM being sided with the RGEM inside of 36 hours might be more telling here. I think they may scramble to advise the band between the Pike and Rt 2, and perhaps consider warning in a band just N...or heavily worded advisory. This is happening at night ... Well it goes into night, but it starts pretty early...like morning hours. I think most snow south of Rt 2 would occur during the day...but of course, the sleet/ZR issue would be particularly problematic at night after sundown. The BL is so cold in that 900-950mb region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 RGEM would have Kevin slitting while Ray who previously checked out and wants no more snow near warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 RGEM would have Kevin slitting while Ray who previously checked out and wants no more snow near warning criteria My vision of Will's LL Bean photoshoot at Wawa FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Fook you Spring...just fook you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Pretty impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Well it goes into night, but it starts pretty early...like morning hours. I think most snow south of Rt 2 would occur during the day...but of course, the sleet/ZR issue would be particularly problematic at night after sundown. The BL is so cold in that 900-950mb region Oh right. I screwed up my time intervals... jesus. Anyway, yeah, ...I'm not sure that really matters anyway? Even if so, it would only add; in this case the BL is so cold that any elevated marginal column combined with heavier fall rates... I have seen snow/noodles on May 22nd in a Noreaster before... if it can do that, that late, THIS can do more than people think - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Oh right. I screwed up my time intervals... jesus. Anyway, yeah, ...I'm not sure that really matters anyway? Even if so, it would only add; in this case the BL is so cold that any elevated marginal column combined with heavier fall rates... I have seen snow/noodles on May 22nd in a Noreaster before... if it can do that, that late, THIS can do more than people think - Yeah this is the common denominator on these solutions...they are frigid in the 900-950mb layer, we're talking like -7C to -9C. It's going to be frozen whatever comes down...the big question is can we get the QPF? The RGEM/NAM say yes we can. We'll see if the GFS comes on board finally in a few minutes. It's been stubbornly dry...almost no precip at all until almost Thursday morning, and even then, it's quite light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 RGEM would have Kevin slitting while Ray who previously checked out and wants no more snow near warning criteria Rgem is a full fledged sleet then zr/ice storm for me complete with trees and lines down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 FWIW even the RPM is on board for a 2-4 N of Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Rgem is a full fledged sleet then zr/ice storm for me complete with trees and lines down you get .5 total precip, pretty weak trees and powerlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yeah this is the common denominator on these solutions...they are frigid in the 900-950mb layer, we're talking like -7C to -9C. It's going to be frozen whatever comes down...the big question is can we get the QPF? The RGEM/NAM say yes we can. We'll see if the GFS comes on board finally in a few minutes. It's been stubbornly dry...almost no precip at all until almost Thursday morning, and even then, it's quite light. If it were just the NAM... but the RGEM is usually a pretty good performer inside of 40 hours... I dunno - Look I remember in like 1987... there was a forecast for a gloppy inch or two where I was in Acton, in early April, N of a warm boundary, and it was 10" when we woke up ... not even plowed either it was so off charted. Not saying the same here ... but, ya gotta be careful with "fresh" wedged polar air mass and nearly upright isentropic lift running up over the top -- particularly as you you say, with -7 ... I knew it was cold but holy moses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 FWIW even the RPM is on board for a 2-4 N of Pike. Yeah RPM drops an inch here with much more over the border.. Wonder if Ray gets emotionally invested. he said he had checked out and would not post anymore about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 you get .3 total precip, pretty weak trees and powerlines Look deeper..bigger picture..picture it continuing the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 almost wonder if we get two snow growth levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Look deeper..bigger picture..picture it continuing the south trend either we are discussing the RGEM output or we are speculating on what will happen, in this case we were discussing the RGEM output which you said was a devastating ice storm for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Usually even in coastal areas, that flow is pretty dam good to get cold in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS still has no measurable tomorrow for SNE...includng the evening (well at leas through 00z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS gets QPF in here after 00z, but thrust of it is north with better WAA. LOL. big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS gets QPF in here after 00z, but thrust of it is north with better WAA. LOL. big difference. GFS is a total non-event for SNE while the NAM/RGEM are pretty big impacts along/north of the pike. Should be interesting. The 00z Euro favored more the RGEM/NAM solution, but not fully on board. 12z will be an important run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The 6z BTV was sort of like the other mesos, basically best forcing Norh of CEF-GHG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS is a total non-event for SNE while the NAM/RGEM are pretty big impacts along/north of the pike. Should be interesting. The 00z Euro favored more the RGEM/NAM solution, but not fully on board. 12z will be an important run. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The RGEM and NAM looks amazing for Boston. Would be nice if we got some prolonged sleet all the way down to the south coast, but that might be pushing it. Good luck further north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 ? Really that's not as impressive as it looks...a few hours of light QPF that may produce a few pellets or a mild glaze. Maybe "non-event" was the wrong word...but certainly minimal impact vs the other two model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS is a total non-event for SNE while the NAM/RGEM are pretty big impacts along/north of the pike. Should be interesting. The 00z Euro favored more the RGEM/NAM solution, but not fully on board. 12z will be an important run. That's quite the difference for sensible wx...especially for me since I'll be handling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I should know this ... but I don't... heh. If Logan gets like 1.5" of sleet, does that count toward the total ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Really that's not as impressive as it looks...a few hours of light QPF that may produce a few pellets or a mild glaze. Maybe "non-event" was the wrong word...but certainly minimal impact vs the other two model runs. I thought the .65 total qpf and the soundings looked much better than before and the trend towards a NAM RGEM scenario important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I should know this ... but I don't... heh. If Logan gets like 1.5" of sleet, does that count toward the total ? Yes, sleet/ice pellets count toward snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 ...Really that's not as impressive as it looksw hours of light QPF that may produce a few pellets or a mild glaze. Maybe "non-event" was the wrong word...but certainly minimal impact vs the other two model runs. Yeah but those are pretty easter egg colors ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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