Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Modicum Mauler (II) - April 8, 2015


NorEastermass128

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 918
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah, Will -- I was mentioning the 6z and it's interesting this 12z run kept up that trend.  

 

That's a warning event at night anyway... But, if it comes down hard enough, as we know it doesn't matter.  

 

The boundary layer cold is pretty amazing.

 

Even after the heavie rprecip ends on the NAM...and the mid-levels warm, the soundings at like ORH shows like 27F and freezing drizzle all night and early Thursday morning.

 

 

 

The key to any real accumulation is heavy precip. Some of the guidance never gives us any. The NAM, RGEM, and Euro have been a bit more enthusiastic about a nice slug of precip coming in. GFS has insisted on almost nothing for tomorrow. Just some steady light precip moving in pre-dawn Thursday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The boundary layer cold is pretty amazing.

 

Even after the heavie rprecip ends on the NAM...and the mid-levels warm, the soundings at like ORH shows like 27F and freezing drizzle all night and early Thursday morning.

 

 

 

The key to any real accumulation is heavy precip. Some of the guidance never gives us any. The NAM, RGEM, and Euro have been a bit more enthusiastic about a nice slug of precip coming in. GFS has insisted on almost nothing for tomorrow. Just some steady light precip moving in pre-dawn Thursday morning.

 

 

Funny I was just going to say ... that looks like near warning sleet and snow, but mainly snow, going to sleet .. then, advisory level glazing ...  It can ice in April, but as you intimated, ...it takes a pretty anomalous llv cold loader, which that high up there seems a slam dunk.

 

Yes, would like other models to join in -- the great duper model strikes again? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We plow and shovel one last time .. And then suddenly ... It's summer

 

I'd be surprised at anything plowable south of the pike...and probably even south of Rt 2.

 

Sleet and even some glazing could get down into the northern half of CT though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well not too surprising. It was talked about for a few days now while some were engaging in sping.

 

In fairness, there's nothing wrong in engaging in spring, ...in spring.  There's that, and no one (that I'm aware) denied a cold wintry sort of appeal mid-week, this week, either.  Much of the spring engaging discussion was supposed to be from Friday on...

 

Which, is still well in the cards. The overall tone of the teles is in lock-step with the bevy of operational runs that are showing a massive scaled thermal shift, the likes of which suggest a very different (warmer) sensible appeal sets up pretty quickly once we get this week out of the way.  

 

Buuut, if anyone was claiming warm awards during today through Thurs, that definitely would have been pretty silly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In fairness, there's nothing wrong in engaging in spring, ...in spring. There's that, and no one (that I'm aware) denied a cold wintry sort of appeal mid-week, this week, either. Much of the spring engaging discussion was supposed to be from Friday on...

Which, is still well in the cards. The overall tone of the teles is in lock-step with the bevy of operational runs that are showing a massive scaled thermal shift, the likes of which suggest a very different (warmer) sensible appeal sets up pretty quickly once we get this week out of the way.

Buuut, if anyone was claiming warm awards during today through Thurs, that definitely would have been pretty silly.

I think back on the 3rd when I mentioned the interesting look( obviously can't go into details that far out, just possibility) it was amid people talking about disappointing finishes to winter and 1" of snow being worthless. The point was, it's a pig high running into overrunning warmth aloft. Pretty good signal on the models that far out despite time of year. Maybe it's not a big deal for many, but any wintry weather after 1st week of April is noteworthy .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think back on the 3rd when I mentioned the interesting look( obviously can't go into details that far out, just possibility) it was amid people talking about disappointing finishes to winter and 1" of snow being worthless. The point was, it's a pig high running into overrunning warmth aloft. Pretty good signal on the models that far out despite time of year. Maybe it's not a big deal for many, but any wintry weather after 1st week of April is noteworthy .

 

Well...we're never going to keep all the people happy all the time.. :)   The users (you know this...) obviously range from perfectly objective and sane to completely suspect of harboring azzclown craziness with regard to their preferred weather.. or their perception of events. Particularly when it comes off as 'owed' on some level?  

 

Anway ... at the end of the day, I don't think top 5 or top 1 snow year justifies any bullsh!t at all... There is no disappointing anything, if so ... one's expectations are not worth discussing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd be surprised at anything plowable south of the pike...and probably even south of Rt 2.

 

Sleet and even some glazing could get down into the northern half of CT though.

An inch or 2 of pingers you gotta plow. You can't have that amount of ice on the roads..plus that stuff doesn't just melt away in 30 minutes.. And I believe that's what we are looking at in Ct..while you guys gets 2-4 + of snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, RGEM is pretty impressive north of the pike...it looks like at least advisory snows for ORH up to like Ray and even some accumulation for BOS too. It transitions to a pellet-fest around 5-7pm in the pike corridor to perhaps Rt 2...but north of that keeps ripping moderate to heavy snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, RGEM is pretty impressive north of the pike...it looks like at least advisory snows for ORH up to like Ray and even some accumulation for BOS too. It transitions to a pellet-fest around 5-7pm in the pike corridor to perhaps Rt 2...but north of that keeps ripping moderate to heavy snow.

cue a Hunchie meh post
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, RGEM is pretty impressive north of the pike...it looks like at least advisory snows for ORH up to like Ray and even some accumulation for BOS too. It transitions to a pellet-fest around 5-7pm in the pike corridor to perhaps Rt 2...but north of that keeps ripping moderate to heavy snow.

 

Yeah that's pretty cold lol. That's like 4-6 for Ray practically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't say I've ever had warning level sleet in April before, but if a consensus of guidance is correct, that's exactly what we're going to be seeing here tomorrow. Crazy...

 

RGEM is especially impressive, 5" of snow and then 2" of sleet on top on April 8th? That would definitely bump this winter up from A to A+ and make up for the dismal start/last few weeks.

post-8652-0-57616000-1428420115_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...