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Modicum Mauler (II) - April 8, 2015


NorEastermass128

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Was always on board the rain train for my area.  April being April.

 

Ready to make the slow move towards the dreaded heat and humidity of summer.

 

You're pretty far down there... I think it was always a Mass Pike terminus for wintry expectations ...more N of course.  

 

It's a fascinating two day span of weather events.  I'm looking over the NAM and seeing a front end wet snow/sleet thing for the intior (some further tainted version farther E)..transition into a drizzly sort of cool pre-warm frontal boundary mire; then LI's drop to -1 regionally ...   LGA is over 20C in the 2-meter with a clear late spring sounding by Friday afternoon, and I suspect that the remainder of SNE E of EEN-HFD gets clipped by that air mass toward evening, at which time there could be a line of embedded thunder migrating through the area...   After all this mess, Saturday is seasonally (not obnoxiously anomalous cold like heretofore tendencies...) cool, and it's seemingly no turning back...

 

This next two days thus is analogous to going through the seasonal door.   Interesting...

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Modeling is certainly interesting. From about Ray's latitude on north there is a shot at a sloppy inch or two. I'm a bit further north of Ray which helps and I'm closer to the NH border here. I might end up with a sloppy 2-3" gun to head if it works out correctly. SE NH looks like they could see slightly more? I'm catching up a little, and unsure how modeling has presented this event in the days prior. Boston sees flakes but zero accums, pretty much all of direct coast won't do too well. A place like Newburyport might be fine though due to how far NE they are. Certainly looks to be strictly north of the pike event. Meso models like RAP/HRRR seem bullish right now.

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on a positive note you finished 70 inches above your expected 30

lol. True.  I remember that 30" call.  The horrors of December-mid January.

Pretty epic season in the end.

 

You're pretty far down there... I think it was always a Mass Pike terminus for wintry expectations ...more N of course.  

 

It's a fascinating two day span of weather events.  I'm looking over the NAM and seeing a front end wet snow/sleet thing for the intior (some further tainted version farther E)..transition into a drizzly sort of cool pre-warm frontal boundary mire; then LI's drop to -1 regionally ...   LGA is over 20C in the 2-meter with a clear late spring sounding by Friday afternoon, and I suspect that the remainder of SNE E of EEN-HFD gets clipped by that air mass toward evening, at which time there could be a line of embedded thunder migrating through the area...   After all this mess, Saturday is seasonally (not obnoxiously anomalous cold like heretofore tendencies...) cool, and it's seemingly no turning back...

 

This next two days thus is analogous to going through the seasonal door.   Interesting...

Yup.  It's hard not to at least acknowledge the hype sometimes regardless of guidance.  Getting truly, emotionally invested in weather is futile, and dumb, but still fun to ride the weenie waves of up and down's.  It's what makes the place fun for the common folk like myself.

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HRRR continues to hammer extreme NE Mass and SNH. Its got a whole lot of frozen SN/IP in that area, with a jack of around 5" just over the Mass border into SNE. LWM gets like 0.6" QPF of pellets.

It's going to be interesting how this plays out at work. I'm right along the Merrimack so I have latitude.

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Modeling is certainly interesting. From about Ray's latitude on north there is a shot at a sloppy inch or two. I'm a bit further north of Ray which helps and I'm closer to the NH border here. I might end up with a sloppy 2-3" gun to head if it works out correctly. SE NH looks like they could see slightly more? I'm catching up a little, and unsure how modeling has presented this event in the days prior. Boston sees flakes but zero accums, pretty much all of direct coast won't do too well. A place like Newburyport might be fine though due to how far NE they are. Certainly looks to be strictly north of the pike event. Meso models like RAP/HRRR seem bullish right now.

Where near the MA border are you? The NAM/GFS seem to save the best rates for NH, but I'm still optimistic of a sleet fest here for a time.

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Jay, you aren't getting 3" and prob. not 2" imo. We'll see.

That's the ceiling.

 

HRRR continues to hammer extreme NE Mass and SNH.  Its got a whole lot of frozen SN/IP in that area, with a jack of around 5" just over the Mass border into SNE.  LWM gets like 0.6" QPF of pellets. 

 

 

Where near the MA border are you? The NAM/GFS seem to save the best rates for NH, but I'm still optimistic of a sleet fest here for a time.

North Andover, MA. Close to intersection of Turnpike and Elm Streets.

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15z is a good period of snow near and north of LWM. Printing out 6" over my fanny on the wxbell weenie maps that everyone knows and loves. Scott goes pants to ankles for that type of algorithm. 

 

15z RAP is all around similar. Dynamically cools aloft nicely too. Between -5 to -10c actually at 850mb 2200 right over NE MA. Could see Rt 2 Hubby region doing well.

 

RAP and HRRR both have that cooling aloft tonight after dark. NAM has that cooling over Lake Winni. Lol.

 

12z WRF BTV is on the RAP HRRR train.

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Steady pingers now but not nearly as intense as radar looks.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

I gotta imagine radar is going to be looking more robust than reality all afternoon and evening with the bright banding and various p-types.  Those sleet showers are going to be showing up as like 30+ dbz areas of precip that are probably really like 15dbz if it were dry mid-winter snow.

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It's interesting how far south the RAP is with the heavy precip late this afternoon and early evening...and it basically has a marginal snow sounding north of the pike. That would probably puke aggregates for a while if that verified. But the confidence on heavy precip is low.

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