HoarfrostHubb Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Still looks like some pellets in there too down to the pike. Dam cold at 925.NH and VT look ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 NH and VT look ok Yeah srn NH and VT into ME looked pretty good from the beginning. Just a question how far south it gets...Pike to the border is the wild card. Either way, that's a wintry look for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Euro ensembles looked fairly similar to OP run. I'll be anxious to see what the 18z RGEM says. The NAM is certainly prone to having huge swings...but the idea of less precip in the morning is supported by the Euro and GFS....GFS is just the extreme outlier in how little QPF falls. Euro is more 18z to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Gotta toss this run. ESP with Eurosnd Ens bitter cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Euro ensembles looked fairly similar to OP run. I'll be anxious to see what the 18z RGEM says. The NAM is certainly prone to having huge swings...but the idea of less precip in the morning is supported by the Euro and GFS....GFS is just the extreme outlier in how little QPF falls. Euro is more 18z to 06z. Sort of a catch 22 because warmer air begins to move in aloft later at night, but obviously you lose daytime insolation too. 900 and below will be pretty darn cold. Also, the WAA drives the precip so hopefully the cold establishes prior to any real WAA push. Obviously better the further north you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 that NAM run was atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Sort of a catch 22 because warmer air begins to move in aloft later at night, but obviously you lose daytime insolation too. 900 and below will be pretty darn cold. Also, the WAA drives the precip so hopefully the cold establishes prior to any real WAA push. Obviously better the further north you are. That could make for a period of glazing in ORH hills if the precip is more delayed....versus more pellets/snow if the precip comes in more during the afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 that NAM run was atrocious. I know! It needs to come north about 15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 RGEM way north thru 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 18Z rgem also north. Most snow near rt 2 especially up by MA/NH border on north. Still looks like plenty of pellets mix in and perhaps glazing for ORH. The initial burst tomorrow aftn is up into NH and then a slug of precip moves in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Only have the meteograms for now, but looks like RGEM jumped north as well. Only looking at BOS, but it cut the sleet in half and took away the snow entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 It wouldn't shock me if convection is messing around with the models as well. These WAA precip shields sometimes can come in quickly if the moisture transport is unabated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 You guys invested? Oh boy.....wake me up...when September ends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 You guys invested? Oh boy.....wake me up...when September ends.... Discussion equals investment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Discussion equals investment? Lots of sleet bouncing off that grape of his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 RGEM still has big QPF though unlike NAM which shifted most of it north...thats a big difference. RGEM warmed a bit in mid-levels, but it has like 3" of pellets for ORH. Also some glaze too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 18z NAM weenie map...congrat's Eek's greenhouse. and 18z NAM accumulate by p-type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Discussion equals investment?Just busting them, but spring will pull the football out from underneath if it hasn't already. Haven't paid one bit of attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Big zr problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I know! It needs to come north about 15 miles. Yeah... can't believe you got over 5" yesterday and last night, haha. Profitable week for you if you end up tacking on another 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 RGEM still has big QPF though unlike NAM which shifted most of it north...thats a big difference. RGEM warmed a bit in mid-levels, but it has like 3" of pellets for ORH. Also some glaze too. I've seen those big sleet ideas work out twice that I can remember. VD Day 2007 and one event recently...can't remember which. It will either be more rain or snow...prob the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I've seen those big sleet ideas work out twice that I can remember. VD Day 2007 and one event recently...can't remember which. It will either be more rain or snow...prob the former. pretty hefty sleet snow combo event last April 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS shifted south to with the QPF from 12z, but it's more in line with the other guidance. Still heaviest in srn NH up to the lakes region, but some pellets and/or glaze into MA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 thinking pretty meh in CT, best coldest ORH North and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS shifted south to with the QPF from 12z, but it's more in line with the other guidance. Still heaviest in srn NH up to the lakes region, but some pellets and/or glaze into MA as well. Looks like the heaviest is in central/southern VT... Killington area probably jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Those who looked at this objectively for days aren't too surprised.About what? A trace to half inch of sleet/snow north of the pike? I don't think.anyone is surprised.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 thinking pretty meh in CT, best coldest ORH North and eastPlenty of ice in Nw and Ne hills. .75+ Qpf and temps near 30 = problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 About what? A trace to half inch of sleet/snow north of the pike? I don't think.anyone is surprised.... No, from there up into SNH. Your area was and still is a wild card, but this was modeled well despite some hoping for long romantic walks along the Shawsheen river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS shifted south to with the QPF from 12z, but it's more in line with the other guidance. Still heaviest in srn NH up to the lakes region, but some pellets and/or glaze into MA as well. Looked a bit colder too tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GFS is pretty snowy up through AFN-PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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