iowahawkeyedave Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Update just put out by DVN: .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015TODAYS FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH IMAPACT WEATHER...REGARDLESS OFWHETHER WE SEE SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF...AND LOWPASSAGE OVER THE CWA...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL RACE A WARMFRONT NORTHWARD TODAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINEDOUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION...NO FIRE WEATHERHIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TODAY...TO THELOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNCOUNTIES ALREADY. THUS...A SPRINGLIKE...STORMY...MOIST DAY IS FULLYEXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70SCENTRAL AND EAST...AS THE WARM SECTOR ARRIVES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ARETURN TO WINDY...AND SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER WILL OCCUROVERNIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AS LOWS RETURN TO THE LOWER30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN ABSENT OFCONFIDENCE. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED OUR SPECIFIC CWA CAPPING THUSFAR...AND WHILE VIRTUALLY ALL OVER AREAS OF THE MIDWEST HAVE SEENMULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS...WE HAVE NOT...AND MAY NOT. IBELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF STORM COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHEAST CWATODAY...AND THAT MAY INHIBIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WE MAYREMAIN MARGINALLY CAPPED...UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH LESS THANIDEAL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. SO...WE REMAIN POORLY CONFIDENT ONCONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT ANY VIRGOROUS STORM THAT DOES FOR WILLINTERACT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ANDSUFFICIENT CAPE...TO BE SEVERE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS TODAY CARRY ALARGE HAIL THREAT EASILY...AND ISOLATED PM STORMS...ESPECIALLY INILLINOIS WILL CARRY A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. STORMS WILL MOVEFAST...AND THAT ALONE IS A HAZARD TODAY. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THESETHREATS...BUT ALSO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURENCE OF THE EVENTIN GENERAL. IT IS A TOUGH MIXED MESSAGE TO COMMUNICATE...LOWEREDPOTENTIAL OF OCCURENCE...BUT MODERATE POTENTIAL THAT ISOLATED STORMSCOULD PRODUCE HAIL AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADOEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Update just put out by DVN: seems about right, confidence is certainly not abundant at this point and I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 still stuck in the low 40s with dense fog but think that should start to change rapidly within the next hour or so. Still not too high on the severe threat this far northeast but should still be a solid day. Liking JOT through PIA. Thinking we'll see another reduction in the enhanced risk on the northern/western edge with the next update. 6z NAM was a total swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Storm mode, initiation timing and location are a few things I'm curious about. Trench mode. Binoculars out. I will not be caught with my pants down seeing a stray as* supercell rolling toward mby, Mr general sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Storm mode, initiation timing and location are a few things I'm curious about. Trench mode. Binoculars out. I will not be caught with my pants down seeing a stray as* supercell rolling toward mby, Mr general sir! hope you're ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Storm mode, initiation timing and location are a few things I'm curious about. Trench mode. Binoculars out. I will not be caught with my pants down seeing a stray as* supercell rolling toward mby, Mr general sir! Same. Batten down, wait, and see. LOTS of residual rain and crapvection out and about this morning. Not optimal, but we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 latest models look lame for my area and the warm front is still well south near PIA but on the plus side, northern MO and W IL aren't actually that bad with partial clearing and weakening returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 hope you're ready born readylatest models look lame for my area and the warm front is still well south near PIA but on the plus side, northern MO and W IL aren't actually that bad with partial clearing and weakening returns. *tightens chin strap* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Thinking we'll see another reduction in the enhanced risk on the northern/western edge with the next update. 6z NAM was a total swing and a miss. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Cluster of storms in cntl/srn IL doesn't have an impressive T/Td (buoyancy) deficit with it. As synoptic kinematics increase, it shouldn't do much to retard warm frontal return northward across IL. Nice clearing between the front and that cluster right now, with TOP morning sounding still having 7.5 K/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. These lapse rates will be advected by the mean layer wind into NE MO/E IA/N IL/S WI/NW IN through the late morning and afternoon. HRRR model is impressive, with widespread STP of 5-7+ across the warm sector, reaching all the way to Lake Michigan by 23z. It depicts a broken string of pearls with some very high UH. No, none of them directly impacts the Chicago metro, but that may be random chance. The point is, this threat looks legit from N of MKE through ORD and CMI and points south (and of course W to ern IA and E into N-Cntl IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Cluster of storms in cntl/srn IL doesn't have an impressive T/Td (buoyancy) deficit with it. As synoptic kinematics increase, it shouldn't do much to retard warm frontal return northward across IL. Nice clearing between the front and that cluster right now, with TOP morning sounding still having 7.5 K/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. These lapse rates will be advected by the mean layer wind into NE MO/E IA/N IL/S WI/NW IN through the late morning and afternoon. HRRR model is impressive, with widespread STP of 5-7+ across the warm sector, reaching all the way to Lake Michigan by 23z. It depicts a broken string of pearls with some very high UH. No, none of them directly impacts the Chicago metro, but that may be random chance. The point is, this threat looks legit from N of MKE through ORD and CMI and points south (and of course W to ern IA and E into N-Cntl IN. SPC still going the other direction, pulled enhanced south of the WI border and dropped TOR probs to 2% for Chicago still stuck in the 40s with dense fog here in the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Strengthening SLP should provide...not overly concerned about lingering stuff... If this were 2 months later and a weaker SLP further north i would be more "concerned" about it...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 the HRRR develops a cluster over NE MO that keeps things in check over NE IL...that doesn't appear to be happening so it may be underplaying convection over the area later. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Nice to see they adjusted the risks west to include most of eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 early look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 the HRRR develops a cluster over NE MO that keeps things in check over NE IL...that doesn't appear to be happening so it may be underplaying convection over the area later. Something to watch. There's an MCV moving northeast across C. Missouri, so it's possible it kicks off additional activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 early lookNice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 There's an MCV moving northeast across C. Missouri, so it's possible it kicks off additional activity. partial clearing for now, so hopefully it can at least hold off while the warmfront makes some progress fog starting to lift downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Rain and storms inbound here in NWOH. Looking like they might lift more northward, hoping we get in the clear pocket to the south of this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 12z NAM back to a more ominous look with a nice period of clearing and discrete activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 12z NAM back to a more ominous look with a nice period of clearing and discrete activity Numerous pockets of 3000 CAPE on the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 SPC will likley increase probs and move/expand risk slightly more westard at least partly sunny skies in the warm sector over MO attm with the front still over eastern KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Just running a quick simulation in my head based on the current radar, I could see a window where a string of pearls buzz saws through Illinois after clearing and instability builds up. Springfield to joliet is an area I'll be paying a special attention to personally /2cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 SSEO with probably a worst case scenario for the Chicago metro. Big isolated updraft helicity track right through Kane/DuPage/Cook this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Just running a simulation in my head based on the current radar, I could see a window where a string of pearls buzz saws through Illinois after clearing and instability builds up. Springfield to joliet is an area I'll be paying a special attention to personally /2cents warm front sniffing the I80 corridor. with a nice pocket of clearing across much of MO edging into W IL. The airmass change is going to be pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 The storms over central MO may become surface based with the heating ahead of them for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Reed Timmer@reedtimmerTVN Initial target area this afternoon Springfield to Peoria, IL.. Also will be arc of supercells rolling out of eastern IA mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Filtered sun here with constant rumbles to my west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Filtered sun here with constant rumbles to my west.... elevated convection still going strong in the WAA regime over NE IL ahead of the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Sun beginning to filter through the clouds here. Might have a bit more rain coming, but it'll be momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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