Gilbertfly Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 RAP goes out to noon tomorrow now, and already has well over 2000j/kg cape bulging into central IA. 00Z stayed fairly clean as well...had CAPE's hitting 3k in NE Mizzu at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Looks like the 00z 4 km NAM shot up with the parameters over N IL/S WI again after a bit of a layoff with the 18z run. Discrete mode, as IWXwx mentioned, continues to be dominant on the sim reflectivity/precip products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 4km NAM ignites convection as far west as Waterloo down to Ottumwa shortly after noon. With large cape already in place (conditionally of course) we may have to play the Iowa side and take our chances with the bridges. Storm motions tomorrow are gonna be a challenge, so dealing with bridges should really make it interesting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 4km NAM ignites convection as far west as Waterloo down to Ottumwa shortly after noon. With large cape already in place (conditionally of course) we may have to play the Iowa side and take our chances with the bridges. Storm motions tomorrow are gonna be a challenge, so dealing with bridges should really make it interesting lol. Do you mean Ottowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Do you mean Ottowa? Ottumwa, Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Ottumwa, Iowa. ahhh sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Latest story from LOT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 As long as morning convection doesn't muddle things up too much, and short term models continue with ongoing trends I think we're going to target somewhere in the Iowa City/Waterloo/Ottumwa triangle. May just play the triple point if it isn't too muddled up. I think these sups will have the potential to tor within an hour after developing, so I want to be up close to where the boundary is by early afternoon. Anything that fires ahead of the main band of storms over towards IL could go tornadic, and could be the best storms overall if enough cape can build after whatever happens in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 The timing appears to be interesting on the 4k NAM, having them impact around 01z, or 8pm.. Not quite the rush-hour strike the 18z showed, now comes the waiting for the 12Z models and what those will bring. Someone in the Illinois area will definitely be looking at a bad day tomorrow. Oh, I will also have to sneak in weather monitoring both in and inbetween classes throughout the day. I wish everybody a delightful evening and safe chasing tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Update from LOT about a half hour ago: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL955 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015.UPDATE...945 PM...IMPROVED NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING I AMA BIT HESITANT TO DROP THE ONGOING FOG ADVISORY...AS CONDITIONSCOULD FAVOR IT TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ASTHE WARM FRONT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARDINTO THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT THAT FOGCOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...I WILL LEAVE THEADVISORY IN PLACE.IT STILL APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING WIDELY SCATTEREDCELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOISASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. THE 00 UTC SOUNDINGSOUT OF KDVN AND KILX INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WASLACKING A ABOVE THE INVERSION...LIMITING THE ELEVATED CAPE. THISSEEMS TO BE WHY THE ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARMFRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTEDTO CONTINUE SETTING UP...MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN ARAPID MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB BENEATH THESE STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES...LIKELY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATWITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS AND HAIL.KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Wonder if the clouds tomorrow will shift anything. I think it's going to be party cloudy. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Huge area of steep mid-level lapse rates upstream over the Plains, just waiting to advect east-northeast over the instability axis tomorrow. Relative lack of convection tonight over the Plains is only gonna help maintain these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Radar over northeast Illinois is lighting up in the last half hour. Pretty good rumblers interwoven throughout much of the LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Very nice Storm here a little while ago in LaGrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Severe warned storm bee lining it for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Severe warned storm bee lining it for mbyMaxed out DVIL and very low correlation coefficient in the core. Definitely putting down some decent hail. Also nice supercell structure and good rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 A hook and some spin starting to develop on that storm. Bears watching ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Nothing doing here at the moment, pour rain. Surprised that cell in n dekalb county is not warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 A low rumbling with some rain here now. Don't see any lightning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 A low rumbling with some rain here now. Don't see any lightning though. Lots of lightning, small hail, and downpours down here. Sounds like spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Small pea size hail. Based in radar, anything larger is just to my NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Really nice elevated supercell the past half hour in southern Dekalb county with a consistent appendage and tight ref gradient along the fwd flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 The warning for the cell moving into McHenry County. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC007-037-089-111-090515-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0004.150409T0435Z-150409T0515Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1135 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...NORTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWESTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT* AT 1134 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGSTON...OR NEAR GENOA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...MARENGO...GENOA...LAKE IN THE HILLS...HUNTLEY...HAMPSHIRE...LAKEWOOD...KIRKLAND...KINGSTON AND UNION.INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Hail swaths over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Visiting a buddy in Fort Wayne, Ind. this weekend. Curious to see how things play out for us in terms of severe. Biggest issue is how much convection will we get in the morning and will it hamper our chances tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Coming down quite nicely. Can hear small stones hitting skylights mixing in with the torrential rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Half awake as this thing keeps cracking and I'll be just as good as a soothsayer but 'upstream' radar doesn't really look all that foreboding at this early hour once current cells move on out. Clear-out come morning or a grungy start still in the cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT THU APR 09 2015 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE TX FAR SE OK...NRN LA...AR...NW MS...WRN TN...KY...SE MO...IL...FAR SRN WI...IND AND WRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...OZARKS...OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...OZARKS...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE. ..OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/CNTRL APPALACHIANS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS TODAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WHICH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH OTHER CELLS INITIATING EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE OH VALLEY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OR A SEMI-CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE MAY OCCUR FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/FRIDAY FROM ST LOUIS NEWD TO INDIANAPOLIS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN ORGANIZE IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED COULD DEVELOP AN ENHANCED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PREFERRED STORM MODE. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WOULD BE IN CNTRL AND NRN IL WHERE THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO COUPLE JUST AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS COULD BE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE CELLS MAY TEND TO BE DISCRETE AND MODELS FORECAST A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN ORGANIZE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. A STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION BUT THIS SHOULD DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FACTORS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LOCATION...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS WITH SEWD EXTEND DUE TO WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 A Broyles outlook that didn't go all out? No way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.