Chinook Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 monster HP-type supercell curling around Potosi MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 http://fox2now.com/on-air/live-streaming/ Trees and power lines down in Potosi... they had personnel live into the core of the storm but he has dissapeared. Can I ask what a 'HP' style thunderstorm is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Alfordsville may be in trouble here shortly with this HP supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 http://fox2now.com/on-air/live-streaming/ Trees and power lines down in Potosi... they had personnel live into the core of the storm but he has dissapeared. Can I ask what a 'HP' style thunderstorm is? High Precip as compared to a LP (Low Precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 High Precip as compared to a LP (Low Precip) Thanks - makes sense. Still in my 'baby' learning stage here... but getting used to some of the US 'lingo' is one of the harder parts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 COD's model page is glitchy. Can't load the 4km NAM, and the GFS is slow to load too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Thanks - makes sense. Still in my 'baby' learning stage here... but getting used to some of the US 'lingo' is one of the harder parts! welcome. and you picked a good day to learn, and some of the better teachers on the net on this board. hopefully you have a radar source to follow along (GR2 or GR3, Stormlab, radarscope, py3kl, or something similar). the next 48 hours will be quite the learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 welcome. and you picked a good day to learn, and some of the better teachers on the net on this board. hopefully you have a radar source to follow along (GR2 or GR3, Stormlab, radarscope, py3kl, or something similar). the next 48 hours will be quite the learning experience. Thanks. I don't have any radar as such. I'm just using the TVN weather radar, following chasers and then google searching 'live weather stream' to a local or big city in relation to a warned storm. Can you push me towards anything that you think may help me or bring me closer to the action? I have been actively following storms over the last few seasons, but just at the beginning of this season in particular I have been starting to look at charts, following daily forecasts for locations such as Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St Louis, Birmingham, Joplin etc as actually seeing forecasts makes things much easier for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 btw, on the storm near Farmington/Weingarten... is it just me wishcasting, or so we maybe have 2 funnels down there right now? one near farmington, and the other 6mi north of town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Huge hail core in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Thanks. I don't have any radar as such. I'm just using the TVN weather radar, following chasers and then google searching 'live weather stream' to a local or big city in relation to a warned storm. Can you push me towards anything that you think may help me or bring me closer to the action? I have been actively following storms over the last few seasons, but just at the beginning of this season in particular I have been starting to look at charts, following daily forecasts for locations such as Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St Louis, Birmingham, Joplin etc as actually seeing forecasts makes things much easier for me. well, for starters, until you can get a more specific radar app like i mentioned, you should head over to places like the "weather underground (www.wunderground.com) and hit the link for the local radars. that way you could get a better look, on a cell by cell basis on what you're looking at. as for the weather charts, the guys and gals in here will post them as they see something significant. in other parts of the chatboard, I think there's a thread showing all the links to the weather data we look at. i won't go into all of them here, given the severe nature of the event. but when it calms down, i'm sure everyone here could take you through the process better. best thing to do is follow along for now, and hopefully when there is time, everyone in here could give a bit more of a detailed description of what they're seeing, for educational purposes. but it'll be an interesting ride for sure. btw, do you have any meteorological training there in the UK (college/university level, or even pilot's level), or not too much? that way it'll help to know what starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Cell S of St Louis looks like a textbook HP tornado maker on the BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Just a monster core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 well, for starters, until you can get a more specific radar app like i mentioned, you should head over to places like the "weather underground (www.wunderground.com) and hit the link for the local radars. that way you could get a better look, on a cell by cell basis on what you're looking at. as for the weather charts, the guys and gals in here will post them as they see something significant. in other parts of the chatboard, I think there's a thread showing all the links to the weather data we look at. i won't go into all of them here, given the severe nature of the event. but when it calms down, i'm sure everyone here could take you through the process better. best thing to do is follow along for now, and hopefully when there is time, everyone in here could give a bit more of a detailed description of what they're seeing, for educational purposes. but it'll be an interesting ride for sure. btw, do you have any meteorological training there in the UK (college/university level, or even pilot's level), or not too much? that way it'll help to know what starting point. I have used Wunderground before.. perhaps, if you wouldn't mind, when the weather calms down stateside on Friday, I could send you a private PM/message and give you a little bit more insight as to where I am, a little bit more about my situation and interests? That would be fantastic, I will be sure to take a look around all the data. I just had a little check around some of your radar suggestions. I'll look more in depth at some of those. Sadly for me, the time differences are quite tough. It's 10.47pm here...I have work each morning, so I tend to drift offline in around an hour and 15 minutes, normally just as things are starting to get very interesting! Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I have used Wunderground before.. perhaps, if you wouldn't mind, when the weather calms down stateside on Friday, I could send you a private PM/message and give you a little bit more insight as to where I am, a little bit more about my situation and interests? That would be fantastic, I will be sure to take a look around all the data. I just had a little check around some of your radar suggestions. I'll look more in depth at some of those. Sadly for me, the time differences are quite tough. It's 10.47pm here...I have work each morning, so I tend to drift offline in around an hour and 15 minutes, normally just as things are starting to get very interesting! Thanks again. no problem. and as for the time difference, think of it this way, you're actual time is what we use to "synchronize the watches" on the weather data here stateside across the continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 no problem. and as for the time difference, think of it this way, you're actual time is what we use to "synchronize the watches" on the weather data here stateside across the continent. Thanks Jim! Will contact you over the weekend. Enjoy the weather, hope everyone stays safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Hail from that Storm. Dang, that is an awesome hailstone. 18z 4km NAM looks rough for Chicago nam4kmCGP_prec_radar_027.gifnam4kmCGP_con_uphly_027.gif Nasty looking signature right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 looks like the weingarten cell is going linear on the south side of it. wouldn't be surprised with wind-driven hail at this point, given the 2-2.75" hail already falling out of that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Perhaps a circulation forming around Libertyville MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Perhaps a circulation forming around Libertyville MO maybe. but circulation for what? tornado or hail enhancement? 65-70dBz echo at 0.5 about to slam them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Garden variety t storm here just ne of Indpls. but am somewhat concerned about training and rainfall after the 2 inch an hour rain we had this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 COD's model page is glitchy. Can't load the 4km NAM, and the GFS is slow to load too.... Same here. Its been like that for me else where too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 It would appear from the NAM models, throughout the day tomorrow from about 9PM this evening to about 10am tomorrow morning, we will see different episodes of thunderstorms moving through the area, until the big one around 4 or 5pm. Could these earlier storms in anyway impede the progressing storm line as it comes into N. IL, or would it "help" further develop the thunderstorms as they enter the KLOT CWA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 If it is sunny tomorrow a.m. you have a much greater chance of significant svr. If cloudy with convection chances are somewhat lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 upper 30s and fog, classic pre-outbreak weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 upper 30s and fog, classic pre-outbreak weather Gotta love these awesome temp gradient extremes over northern IL this time of year. Something that should help you guys tomorrow will be winds should eventually become near due southerly shortly before main convective line/band or whatever makes it there early evening. You could easily jump up 20+ degrees as that shallow marine layer mixes out. All gonna depend on how far north the synoptic warm front is allowed to get in regards to morning/early afternoon convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 It is interesting that the models simulated reflectivities continues to depict a string of pearls, never really going linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 It is interesting that the models simulated reflectivities continues to depict a string of pearls, never really going linear. Interesting and rather concerning. I am worried that the warm front that's been hanging over central IL/IN the past several days may not blast that far north on Thursday as expected and really ramp up the svr chances down here. We have three precip clusters this Wed evening in Ohio, near St. Louis, and in south central KS basically along the front and a 994 mb low in se CO. as a surface reflection of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 RAP goes out to noon tomorrow now, and already has well over 2000j/kg cape bulging into central IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 It is interesting that the models simulated reflectivities continues to depict a string of pearls, never really going linear. Several runs in a row of that has me concerned about tomorrow for around here. I can confidently say this is the 2nd most impressive synoptic severe setup after 11/17/13 for the region since I moved out here in July 2010. I honestly have a bit of an uneasy feeling about tomorrow's potential. A good way to think of tomorrow is we'll have cool season dynamics and shear but late spring to early summer instability, also aided by very steep lapse rates. If it doesn't produce widespread severe weather and a few to several tornadoes within the LOT CWA, it'll be because mesoscale factors that have yet to be ironed out came together to make it less conducive, but the synoptic setup is often as good as they come around here. I suspect even if it's not bad here, somewhere in the subforum will have a rough day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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