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April 8-10 Severe threat


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
226 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
 
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT  
 
* AT 222 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SULLIVAN...  
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
 
HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.  
EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...  
SIDING AND VEHICLES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ANTHONIES MILL...RICHWOODS...OLD MINES...FLETCHER...MORSE MILL AND  
CADET.  

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Wow, wasn't expecting to get put in the enhanced area for this event. Looking at the massive size of that, I don't know if I've ever seen such a widespread ENH outlook, or 45% area back in the old slight-mod-high days.

Shaping up to be an exciting and possibly concerning day for a large part of the midwest.

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GRR's thoughts for tomorrow:

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DEEPENING SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH TOWARD SRN LWR MI. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE
SRN HALF OF LWR MI... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF I-96.

THE MAIN FACTOR TO WATCH FOR SEVERE STORM INITIATION WILL BE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BECAUSE FROM A PURE SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT WE
UNDOUBTEDLY END UP IN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AFTER 5
PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

IN FACT TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS TIME OF YEAR
TYPICALLY FEATURES A SFC LOW TRACKING BY JUST TO OUR WEST WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SRN LWR MI...WHICH IS WHAT THE
WEATHER MAP IS PROJECTED TO LOOK LIKE AT 8 PM THURSDAY EVENING.

HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD BACK ON GENERATING ANY
APPRECIABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY...
CREEPING IN AFTER 2 PM FROM THE SOUTH...MAXING OUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
SOUTH OF I-96 BETWEEN 8-11 PM... THEN FADING.

THE PRIME AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY ROTATING SUPERCELLS AT
8 PM THURSDAY PER 0-3KM EHI PROGS FROM THE NAM APPEARS TO BE OVER NE
IL WITH AN EASTERN EXTENSION TOWARD THE SW CORNER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.  THIS AREA PEAKS NEAR 3-4 AROUND CHICAGO AT 8 PM THEN
VALUES GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE AREA NUDGES E/NE WITH TIME DURING
THE EVENING. HOWEVER EVEN AT 11 PM VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 1 IN SW
MI.

OUTSIDE OF THE ROTATING SUPERCELL THREAT NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT...
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WILL BE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
WHICH SHOULD SWEEP EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SRN LWR
MI AND INDIANA AFTER 8 PM.

AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND IN THE SPC OUTLOOKS SHEAR
VALUES ARE MORE THAT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BUT FOR
SRN LWR MI IT ALL HINGES ON AVAILABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

410 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

  EAST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

 

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

 

* AT 408 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING

  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

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Watching this system very closely, for it is a rather interesting one indeed. Many people in the area doubt we will get anything at all, such is the nature of Chicago severe thunderstorms and even weathermen in general. Should we get a tornado outbreak/signif. thunderstorm event, I doubt many will be prepared. That being said, I am going to hold my tongue and follow what is discussed here to ensure personal and family safety throughout the day as I am at school..

 

I would not be surprised if the system goes either way, bringing us a tornado in the heart of downtown Chicago or the Metro in general, or gives us rainshowers. Given some of the content posted and "lack of confidence" in certain atmospheric conditions, I am not going to say anything further on our Facebook page until the dust settles tomorrow morning and we can see clearly. 

 

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