A-L-E-K Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 so muddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for SW Ohio and N KY. Nice forward-propagating MCS emerging out of Indiana heading SE. Appears to be strengthening a bit as it heads toward areas along the Ohio River. Northern edge just missed me. Did have rain and thunder though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Looks like Champaign/Indy and Columbus all got a nice hit out of this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 LOT and the posters i respect all sound bullish but this one sure smells like a warm front bust for NE Illinois, especially Chicago proper on north towards Geos. But what do i know and we'll find out soon enough, everything looks dope if things can come together. 12z 4km NAM suggesting the warm front doesn't pass Kenosha. Showing a nice line starting near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 12z 4km NAM suggesting the warm front doesn't pass Kenosha. Showing a nice line starting near you. Those cells in Michigan on the wf tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Those cells in Michigan on the wf tho You might be in a better spot to see severe as the storm dynamics come together. A decent amount of "juice" riding northward into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Wow the line in Southern Ohio has an RIJ with it and is shaping up nicely. Might be turning into a full fledged derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Yeah, based on the NAM 4km I'm beginning to wonder if both Illinois and Indiana will come into play for enhanced svr risk Thursday. Be interesting to see the updated day 2 outlook in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I easily had 60mph winds earlier when it came through. I thought I was going to die out, but as it got to the OH/IN border it started ramping up, and has kept on going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Wow the line in Southern Ohio has an RIJ with it and is shaping up nicely. Might be turning into a full fledged derecho I'm downstream from it and I've been keeping my eye on that MCS this morning in Ohio. That thing has turned into a pretty potent line and continues to strengthen as it pushes into more unstable atmosphere. SPC seems to think it'll continue to strengthen through the afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Here is a little something to excite the Indiana and Michigan posters as you wake up this morning. Discreet convection still ongoing at 03Z on the 06Z 4km NAM. nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_15.png Nice, but nocturnal events worry me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 12z 4km NAM suggesting the warm front doesn't pass Kenosha. Showing a nice line starting near you. How about that one single discrete cell over top of my house though. Way out ahead of everything. Like IWXwx said, the nocturnal event that the NAM has is concerning, to say the least. I would guess a decent chunk of IN will go under enhanced during the 1730z run of the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The D1was 15 mins late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The D1was 15 mins late.So? They upgraded to moderate, that's probably why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Here is a little something to excite the Indiana and Michigan posters as you wake up this morning. Discreet convection still ongoing at 03Z on the 06Z 4km NAM. nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_15.png Both NAMs keep that stuff on the cold front discrete into Michigan after dark. That is very concerning especially since the instability gets drawn north and doesn't wane until Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 So? They upgraded to moderate, that's probably why. That was what I was getting at, I posted it right after it came out, but the site wasn't updated. I should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I easily had 60mph winds earlier when it came through. I thought I was going to die out, but as it got to the OH/IN border it started ramping up, and has kept on going.Nice it looked pretty nasty when it was entering OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 We're slowly running out of time for things to go haywire at the synoptic scale to throw a wrench into this event. I think the synoptic ingredients are now well more than likely to be there for a tornado outbreak across IL/wrn IN/far srn WI tomorrow afternoon and evening. The mesoscale details, however, are far from settled. I know there's some concerns about morning convection, and that's valid, but I think the advection of lapse rates into the area will likely lead to rapid and better-than-sufficient destabilization, even if the convection takes awhile to clear out in the morning. What that convection might aid in doing, however, is leaving the sfc winds backed and low-level veering enhanced by limited boundary layer mixing to a shorter window of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 IZZI update... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1140 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015.UPDATE...1140 AM CDTLOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILING THE TIMING OF BETTER CONVECTIVECHANCES THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST PERIODIC BOUTS OFSTRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY. STRONGQUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM JUST EAST OF QUINCYTO NEAR LAFAYETTE LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME TENDENCY FORTHE FRONT TO INCH NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA TO THE EAST OF AWEAK SFC LOW BETWEEN SPI/PIA. A WEAKENING/LOOSELY ORGANIZEDSTRATIFORM LEADING MCS OVER MISSOURI HAS BEEN SLOWLY PROPAGATINGEASTWARD TOWARD ILLINOIS WITH ITS DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ALSOSPREADING EAST AND LIKELY TO SLOW HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONGTHE WARM FRONT. MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT OBS JUST TO THESOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS CINH IS WEAKENING...THOUGH MOSTLIKELY SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INHIBITIONTO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON ALONG THE WARM FRONT THISAFTERNOON...IF IT DOES DEVELOP SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE VERY REALGIVEN THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY. MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FORMO/IA MCS TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTOILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITHSTRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGERSTORMS TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ORGANIZED COLDPOOL DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN THEUNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS THOUGH DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRYCONDITIONS NOT PLANNING ANY SORT OF HYDRO HEADLINES.CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTOTOMORROW MORNING WHICH LENDS ITSELF TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THEMAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOONAND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE WOULD SUSPECT THE WARM FRONTWILL BE ABLE TO BLAST NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PLACING MOST OF THECWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ASSUMING THE PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATESARRIVE AS FORECAST AND ARE NOT DISTURBANCE BY EARLY DAYCONVECTION AND THAT CONVECTION OR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOESNTCONTAMINATE THE WARM SECTOR...THEN KINEMATIC FIELDS WOULD BE VERYFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLSPOTENTIALLY WITH TORNADO THREAT. STILL MANY CONVECTIVE ANDMESOSCALE DETAILS TO WORK OUT BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TOLOOK FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIAL HIGHER END SEVERE EVENT IN THEREGION LATE THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Both NAMs keep that stuff on the cold front discrete into Michigan after dark. That is very concerning especially since the instability gets drawn north and doesn't wane until Midnight. And that's in the wake of plenty of strong morning convection too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Just looking more deeply at the 4km NAM for tomorrow, I really do believe if there are storms on the warm front in Michigan they have a very good potential to be tornadic. 0-1km helicity of 300m^2/s^2 with 0-3km helicity of 450m^2/s^2 combine that with over 1500 J/kg SBCAPE along and south of the warm front feeding into the area. It really sets up for a volatile atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 And that's in the wake of plenty of strong morning convection too... Which will lay out plenty of outflow boundaries to help locally enhance helicity too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 We're slowly running out of time for things to go haywire at the synoptic scale to throw a wrench into this event. I think the synoptic ingredients are now well more than likely to be there for a tornado outbreak across IL/wrn IN/far srn WI tomorrow afternoon and evening. The mesoscale details, however, are far from settled. I know there's some concerns about morning convection, and that's valid, but I think the advection of lapse rates into the area will likely lead to rapid and better-than-sufficient destabilization, even if the convection takes awhile to clear out in the morning. What that convection might aid in doing, however, is leaving the sfc winds backed and low-level veering enhanced by limited boundary layer mixing to a shorter window of the day. thanks for dropping by the old 'hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 HUGE enhanced area on day 2 45% probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 HUGE enhanced area on day 2That has to be the biggest enhanced/mod I've ever seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Well they removed the hatched area, but they expanded that enhanced and added a 45% area for large portion of it. I would expect this to be upgraded tomorrow once the mesoscale details are figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I bolded their reasoning for taking out the hatched area: ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS... MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DEEPER/RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AND CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. BY 12Z THURSDAY...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS...AMONG OTHERS...MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS TO A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THIS PERIOD. STILL...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR...INCLUDING A RATHER BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DURING THE DAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD YIELD SCATTERED AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THESE AREAS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT...IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA... DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS CONCERNING COVERAGE AND AREA TO SUPPORT 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. Basically what I am gathering is they think there is potential for higher end severe they are just unsure on location at this time. Once the mesoscale details are resolved tomorrow, I think the hatching will be reintroduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I bolded their reasoning for taking out the hatched area: Basically what I am gathering is they think there is potential for higher end severe they are just unsure on location at this time. Once the mesoscale details are resolved tomorrow, I think the hatching will be reintroduced. Hatching would have made it a moderate risk, so it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Big day tomorrow. Definitely gassing up the truck for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Hatching would have made it a moderate risk, so it makes sense. Yeah, I do fully expect a moderate risk tomorrow as things are evolving in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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