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April 8-10 Severe threat


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Looking like a fun one for tonight.. Around 6AM I was calling bust. Guess not. 

 

On April 28 2014, there was tons of convective garbage just everywhere over MS and a bit for AL and I thought there is no way anything decent will come of an airmass that worked over. It did this until noon EST or just after and then a cluster of ongoing convection just suddenly exploded and morphed into turbo-charged supercells that dropped violent twisters. Not only surprised by that, but a whole array of tornadic storms formed and continued all into the overnight (in AL). Of course I prefer clear skies letting the atmo. destabilize to the max possible but almost everything remains on the table in these situations. Similar to April 28 of last year, we had that piece of ongoing convection drop a rope tornado but it looks to be toast.

 

Is there a particular reason the shear side of the parameters hasn't been mentioned at all here?

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S53 KLSX 092113  
TORLSX  
MOC007-092145-  
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0010.150409T2113Z-150409T2145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
413 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
 

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LOT update...

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
400 PM CDT

INITIAL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS HAVE
LARGELY DIMINISHED AND BECOME MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...HOWEVER
NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS INCLUDES A LOW-TOPPED SUPER CELL
TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER SOUTHWEST WINNEBAGO COUNTY AS
OF 4 PM CDT...WHICH IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED GROWTH.
THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING BEHIND THE MCV ACROSS CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE MID 70S
WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY.
EFFECTIVE SRH HAS ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADO.

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