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April 8-10 Severe threat


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Temp up to 55° from 48° in the last half hour here...

I definitely think the SPC will trim the ENH to just south of the MI/IN/OH line. We're not going to make It (instability wise) up here. Just too much low cloud cover and now more WAA rains knocking on the back door.

Northern Illinois looks to be in a perfect spot... Very ominous in those parts. Everyone stay safe and aware, this could be a dangerous afternoon/evening.

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Outflow boundary OFB noted by SPC is easier to see on visible in Northern Illinois. Surface just shows warm front WF, but the OFB is easily noted just south of the WF on visible. Appears new storms are on the OFB from Galesburg to Peoria (1pm Central time). Hi-res models have that, and still erupt the main line after, so no problem there.

 

Looks like the main line goes on the cold front CF later. That 10% would look even better if storms were going on a pre-frontal trough. Anyway I'd target the first or second cell from the CF on the OFB late this afternoon. Storm right on the CF OFB intersection would be good if nothing else close. Risk on cold front is dry air ingestion. If a close second storm from the CF is on the OFB I would chase it. Good luck and be safe!

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Tornado Watch about to go out for entire LOT CWA

Sent from my SM-G900V

 

291   

WWUS30 KWNS 091845  

SAW1    

SPC AWW 091845  

WW 41 TORNADO IL IN WI LM 091850Z - 100400Z  

AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..  

15NW MKE/MILWAUKEE WI/ - 25SW DEC/DECATUR IL/  

..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /8E BAE - 19WSW AXC/  

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.  

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.  

 

LAT...LON 43098651 39568769 39569069 43098969  

 

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A  

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS  

FOR WOU1.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   150 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
     FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
     FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
     LAKE MICHIGAN

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
     1100 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR ILLINOIS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

 
   DISCUSSION...TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED WITH
   INITIAL STORMS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS DEVELOPING E/NE AND ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH AREAS WILL HAVE STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR SUPPORTING RISKS FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ...GRAMS/CORFIDI

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