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April 6-10th Severe Potential


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70/40 probs

 

 

 

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ACROSS WW AREA
THROUGH LATE EVE AS CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FOCUS INVOF DEVELOPING
SRN KS SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT. MORE ISOLD STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM SSWWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE. TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH
DIURNAL CYCLE AND CONTINUE ENE MOVEMENT OF SWRN U.S. UPR LVL SPEED
MAX.
 
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Tornado watch out for portions of OK, KS, and TX

 

attachicon.giftornado watch.PNG

 

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (40%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

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Fwiw... Dr. Forbes increased the TOR:CON to a 6/10, which is considered "high".. Also seems like these storms right now are being held back by lack of instability over the areas they're in... once these storms in Western Oklahoma begin to make into central OK, and SC KS they'll explode.

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Wow, that's a beautiful right mover...

 

Looks like the HRRR drags it along the boundary 

95cbcb860543e2d982ef799e17da5b0a.gif

 

Yep... staying relatively consistent too! The above loop was the 2000 UTC simulation, and the 2100 UTC simulation (below) has a similar discrete cell but now a county south. We'll see if its anywhere close to reality in the next couple of hours!

 

HRRR Reflectivity URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_flt.php

 

rONIkZs.png

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Yep... staying relatively consistent too! The above loop was the 2000 UTC simulation, and the 2100 UTC simulation (below) has a similar discrete cell but now a county south. We'll see if its anywhere close to reality in the next couple of hours!

 

HRRR Reflectivity URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_flt.php

 

FWIW, the HRRR is exploding the low-level shear/helicity near that retreating boundary as the low level jet ramps up during the next couple hours.  If cells can manage to remain discrete, there could be a 2 hour window or so where we could see significant tornadoes drop.

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FWIW, the HRRR is exploding the low-level shear/helicity near that retreating boundary as the low level jet ramps up during the next couple hours.  If cells can manage to remain discrete, there could be a 2 hour window or so where we could see significant tornadoes drop.

 

Storm on the western edge of that line appears to be becoming dominant.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
    
* AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARMON...MOVING EAST AT
  35 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMARGO AROUND 615 PM CDT.
  VICI AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  CESTOS AROUND 640 PM CDT.
  TALOGA AROUND 645 PM CDT.
 

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