Juliancolton Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Persistent funnel cloud a couple miles east of Potosi, MO per spotter reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'm shocked that thing isn't on the ground yet, that cell looks textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Tornado watch out for portions of OK, KS, and TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'm shocked that thing isn't on the ground yet, that cell looks textbook. TOG per chasers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 70/40 probs DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ACROSS WW AREATHROUGH LATE EVE AS CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FOCUS INVOF DEVELOPINGSRN KS SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT. MORE ISOLD STORMSEXPECTED TO FORM SSWWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE. TORNADO THREAT MAYINCREASE AFTER SUNSET AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTHDIURNAL CYCLE AND CONTINUE ENE MOVEMENT OF SWRN U.S. UPR LVL SPEEDMAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Tornado watch out for portions of OK, KS, and TX tornado watch.PNG Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (70%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (40%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (40%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (50%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Fwiw... Dr. Forbes increased the TOR:CON to a 6/10, which is considered "high".. Also seems like these storms right now are being held back by lack of instability over the areas they're in... once these storms in Western Oklahoma begin to make into central OK, and SC KS they'll explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Is TWC currently streaming live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Cells popping up off the boundary in KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Cells popping up off the boundary in KS If the HRRR is to be believed (insert grain of salt), this could get nasty very quickly: 2d variable Loop (updates hourly): http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 If the HRRR is to be believed (insert grain of salt), this could get nasty very quickly: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php Wow, that's a beautiful right mover... Looks like the HRRR drags it along the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 There's Friday locally, I may be coming down that way if things go right. Nice, let me know if you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Wow, that's a beautiful right mover... Looks like the HRRR drags it along the boundary Yep... staying relatively consistent too! The above loop was the 2000 UTC simulation, and the 2100 UTC simulation (below) has a similar discrete cell but now a county south. We'll see if its anywhere close to reality in the next couple of hours! HRRR Reflectivity URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_flt.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Yep... staying relatively consistent too! The above loop was the 2000 UTC simulation, and the 2100 UTC simulation (below) has a similar discrete cell but now a county south. We'll see if its anywhere close to reality in the next couple of hours! HRRR Reflectivity URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_flt.php FWIW, the HRRR is exploding the low-level shear/helicity near that retreating boundary as the low level jet ramps up during the next couple hours. If cells can manage to remain discrete, there could be a 2 hour window or so where we could see significant tornadoes drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Supercell south of Arnett, OK is looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 FWIW, the HRRR is exploding the low-level shear/helicity near that retreating boundary as the low level jet ramps up during the next couple hours. If cells can manage to remain discrete, there could be a 2 hour window or so where we could see significant tornadoes drop. Storm on the western edge of that line appears to be becoming dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Tor watch also coming for much of central and northern MO as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Existing tor watch has been expanded north a few counties in Kansas due to the warm front moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK555 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...* UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARMON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... CAMARGO AROUND 615 PM CDT. VICI AROUND 620 PM CDT. CESTOS AROUND 640 PM CDT. TALOGA AROUND 645 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 This thing is a monster, tops over 50,000, funnel reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The cell along the KS/OK border just went tornado and that is the same beast that HRRR right turns and tracks toward ICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Kelley Williamson has rope tornado on ground on that northern cell, just touched down a few seconds ago. https://tvnweather.com/live/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Brief tornado near Burlington, ok per TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Per Radarscope it's showing 60,000 feet now with that cell. Once that rotation tightens watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 SRH is incredibly high by both cells however LI's and CAPE are better off to the east. That may be whats putting lid on these storms from churning out twisters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Impressive lowering http://www.news9.com/category/267187/dynamic-popout-live-stream?webEncoder=http://kwtv-lh.akamaihd.net/z/KWTV_666@91154/manifest.f4m&mobileEncoder=http://kwtv-lh.akamaihd.net/i/KWTV_666@91154/master.m3u8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Still too a little much CIN for my liking We'll see if anything else can get going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Circulation tightening up on that cell near Medicine Lodge. BR presentation looking better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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