chase_stormz Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Decided not to head down for today. First round of initiation already occurring, from Elk City, OK down to near San Angelo, TX. According to the 13z HRRR, look out I70 from Columbia to North of St. Louis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Some mixed signals on storm mode and coverage, but the high-res models seem to be fairly consistent with pegging the area on either side of a Ponca City to Arkansas City line. A bit more unclear how western OK pans out, but could be good if the environment does not get contaminated and chaser convergence won't be much of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 And we have our first moderate of the year. 15% tor for OK, KS, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 And we have our first moderate of the year. 15% tor for OK, KS, MO. Second, March 25th was a mdt as well and verified as such too. This is the first mdt based on tornado potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Second, March 25th was a mdt as well and verified as such too. This is the first mdt based on tornado potential though.Nevermind, lol. Brain fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxradar 30623 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1230 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015VALID 091200Z - 101200Z...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOWER OHIOVALLEY...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISKAREA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWARDINTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE EDWARDSPLATEAU AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSSSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLEMISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THISWILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACOUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE....SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITWESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...IS FORECAST TOCONTINUE AN EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OUT OF THE GREAT BASINDURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRALHIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAYNIGHT...WHERE/WHEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY INCREASINGLY PHASEWITH A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...MORESUBSTANTIVE DEEPENING OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...EMERGINGFROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED ACROSS AND EASTNORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTAS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD LAKE MICHIGANDURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEASTMODERATELY STRONG WITH LOWEST PRESSURES AT OR BELOW 1000 MB. ATRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARDTHROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARKPLATEAU AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE AWELL-DEFINED DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW APPEARS LIKELYTO ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE COLD AIRREMAINS DAMMED TO THE EAST OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRALAPPALACHIANS.AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THEWARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICALMOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMACTIVITY...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTOTHE APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO THE EAST OFTHE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELYSTRONG...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANUMBER OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITYSEEMS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACEBOUNDARIES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD SURGINGFRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS BYTHURSDAY EVENING....GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DEEPER/RICHER BOUNDARY LAYERMOISTENING MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR INADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AND CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAYBE ONGOING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPIAND OHIO VALLEYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. BY 12Z THURSDAY...ITALSO APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION OF THEBROAD AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW PRESENT ACROSS THEPLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS...AMONGOTHERS...MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS TO A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIVESEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THIS PERIOD.STILL...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYERFLOW/SHEAR...INCLUDING A RATHER BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KT SOUTHSOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DURING THE DAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDINGSUPERCELLS. AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD YIELDSCATTERED AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OFPRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THESE AREAS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE WARMFRONT...IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OFNORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER COULD DEVELOP NEARTHE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKPLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS CONCERNING COVERAGEAND AREA TO SUPPORT 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHERPROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Thats a giant day 2 oh sh-t! area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I agree Mapgirl, our first real tornado outbreak of the spring for today and tomorrow, wish I could be chasing! Damn work lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 So does accuwx cable channel do real time severe? recently lost twc, and thought that was one of their remaining strengths. I hate to watch the bozos on cnn as a default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Honestly, I think anywhere OK and south is nuked by the crapvection over TX right now. Gotta look towards the triple point and warm front for any tornado play today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Thats a giant day 2 oh sh-t! areaThere's Friday locally, I may be coming down that way if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 TCU's going up in SE Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 CU field has quickly developed across the TX panhandle, with initiation occurring just south of AMA. Elevated convection moving across C. Oklahoma looks to be becoming surface based SE of Arkansas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 ICT-SV-28: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT * AT 156 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HARDY...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...PING PONG SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SEDAN...CEDAR VALE...PERU...HALE AND MAPLE CITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Storm SW of St. Louis is starting to get the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Storm SW of St. Louis is starting to get the look In an area of enhanced low level shear as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 In an area of enhanced low level shear as well. And trained weather spotters have reported up to baseball sized hail with that storm. EDIT: Hail to 4" in diameter on that storm near Sullivan, MO. Holy cow! Meanwhile, 80 mph winds by a spotter on the Sedan, KS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Chaser convergence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Sullivan MO, 3-4 inch hail reported 30 minutes ago. Getting an even bigger hail core now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Anybody know why a severe watch just went out for the 15% tor area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Anybody know why a severe watch just went out for the 15% tor area?? It only runs until 7pm CDT. I imagine they'll issue a new Tornado Watch and overlap it with the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Anybody know why a severe watch just went out for the 15% tor area?? It only runs until 7pm CDT. I imagine they'll issue a new Tornado Watch and overlap it with the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch at that time. DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER NE OK/S CNTRL KS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE...NE-MOVING UPR IMPULSE. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS THE UPR FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD AND STORM COLD POOLS ENLARGE/MERGE. 19Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE WELL-SAMPLED THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...WHERE ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LVL BUOYANCY. 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. VEERED LOW-LVL WINDS AND EXPECTED FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL STORM OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT BROKEN LINES/CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ /REF SWODY1/. THIS MAY REQUIRE THAT PARTS OF THE WW BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO BEFORE THAT TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Ah ok, thanks. Driving, couldn't look at it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Storm south of St. Louis is Tornado warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 That TW storm near Farmington is starting to wrap up, couplet forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Live stream: http://www.ksdk.com/videos/news/local/2015/01/29/3144211/ Circulation over Latty right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 That TW storm near Farmington is starting to wrap up, couplet forming. Starting to look classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Congested/TCU in Western OK and TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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