1900hurricane Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 just wonder, but does anyone know what the day in late December was??? Especially over the plains; I don't remember a big tornado day in December ever in the plains... That day actually appears to be in late November, which I would guess is November 27th, 2005. http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/2005/11/27/map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 It's late November, and I'm going to guess 11/27/05. Lots of reports across E KS but nothing too significant (bordering on a cold-core setup). There's no way that's in the top 13 days for Plains tornado reports for the past decade, but if Quincy meant the top day each individual year, I suppose it's possible that had more reports than any other day in 2005 (fairly quiet spring in the Plains). oh okay thanks. Misread how the graph was setup as far as months go... Seems like it must've been a dead quiet year every where if late November had the most TOR reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The graph considers the single days with the most tornado reports. Used SPC's climo pages. 11/27 was the day with the most tornado reports in 2005 with 67. The #2 and #3 days were both in the fall, but centered along and east of the Mississippi. It's a very simplistic look, as it doesn't consider days that may have had only a few tornadoes, but with one or more that were very photogenic. I actually don't think any of the days from June 16-18, 2014 made the cut. Case in point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The 0z NAM is impressive for Thursday afternoon across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. CAPE is in excess of 2000j/kg coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, bulk shear of 60kt, and 0-3km SRH of 150-200m2/s2. Unidirectional shear isn't perfect, but it looks like it would be enough for a few big supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The 0z NAM is impressive for Thursday afternoon across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. CAPE is in excess of 2000j/kg coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, bulk shear of 60kt, and 0-3km SRH of 150-200m2/s2. Unidirectional shear isn't perfect, but it looks like it would be enough for a few big supercells. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46173-april-8-10-severe-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The graph considers the single days with the most tornado reports. Used SPC's climo pages. 11/27 was the day with the most tornado reports in 2005 with 67. The #2 and #3 days were both in the fall, but centered along and east of the Mississippi. It's a very simplistic look, as it doesn't consider days that may have had only a few tornadoes, but with one or more that were very photogenic. I actually don't think any of the days from June 16-18, 2014 made the cut. Case in point. CAPE > shear.. if you have enough shear. The most well known storm photogs are well placed to hit those days no one else is chasing but have beastly cells in the middle of bumblefook Dakotas or wherever. I mean, I guess all those days have people on them now but few hit them consistently. By mid/late May there's more consistent moisture in more places. I think you do start to trend noticeably downward by June when it comes to the big events many years, but you get little events more often or strings of days etc. I've never chased early season in the Plains obviously but I've seen enough vid to think I'd still prefer later season. Of course outliers that anyone would want to chase like Mar 1990 or something. Someday I'll probably switch to spot chasing once or twice in a season assuming I never get out of here.. I imagine it will be tougher to decide when and when not to go at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 12z NAM sounding for Wichita at 0z 4/9/15.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The 06z NAM took a step forward and the 12z runs also look better. It's not as ideal as it was a couple days ago but I am a heck of a lot more hopeful than I was after yesterday's data. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 SPC upgraded tomorrow to enhanced, 30% hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 One issue I see is most guidance has initiation occurring in N. Oklahoma, S. Kansas as early as around noon, as forcing moves in early in the day. On the other-hand, most of what shows that also initiates discrete convection north of ICT just prior between 22-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinbente Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Models seem to upping tomorrow's potential again. Seems to be a trend. Hope it stays this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Hi-res model data seems to be indicating an increasing threat of some storms popping later today in SE KS. If they go they should be quite the hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 FWIW, 12z fire wx NAM takes a cell to town that crosses over Kay-Osage counties early tomorrow evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Hi-res model data seems to be indicating an increasing threat of some storms popping later today in SE KS. If they go they should be quite the hailers. Been watching that. The HRRR has been stalling a storm on the OK/KS border before pushing it slowwwwwly into Joplin overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Per SPC MCD, Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for NE OK, SE KS, and adjacent sections of SW MO. Thoughts on tornadic potential? Looks like mainly a large hail event to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Per SPC MCD, Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for NE OK, SE KS, and adjacent sections of SW MO. Thoughts on tornadic potential? Looks like mainly a large hail event to me... Tornado Potential looks pretty low to me... Basing off of the wind fields... Veered surface flow, overlapped by a southwesterly LLJ, as well as SW'ly Mid-level flow... Along with weak'ish effective shear of 30-40kts, also helictites appear to be none existent. With all that said, anything is possible of course, very large hail is likely with any storms that do form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Solid write up on tomorrow from KTOP's AFD: WEDNESDAY, LOOKS LIKE A COMPLEX FORECAST AND THE FINAL OUTCOME MAY NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL LATE THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LEAD H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NM ACROSS WEST TX INTO OK BY 18Z WED. THIS H5 TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR WIDE SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE LATE MORNING HOUR THROUGH 3 PM. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF OUTFLOW THAT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS, CASING THE ENVIRONMENT TO STABILIZE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST MODELS SHOW THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR HUTCHINSON, KS, SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE INTO NORTHERN OK. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. THERE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW SEVERE THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE HOURS AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY IF NORTHEAST KS DOESN'T RECOVER FROM THE OUTFLOW OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OUTFLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THOUGH THE NAM MODEL SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING ACROSS DICKINSON AND MORRIS COUNTIES TO NEAR 2,000 J/KG. MUCAPES ARE 2,000 TO 3,000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 3Z THU. I SUPPOSE A SURFACE BASED STORM MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DOES NOT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS, THEN THE WARM FRONT MAY MOVE NORTH OF I-70 AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND EXTENDING BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE SURFACE DRYLINE. IN THIS SCENARIO, SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. SLIGHTLY VEERED 850MB WINDS MAY PREVENT STRONGER TORNADOES FROM DEVELOPING BUT ANY SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 18z fire wx NAM at it again near the eastern OK/KS border. Showing an isolated, intense supercell near Arkansas City around 00z THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Cap held yesterday, and has done the same today through sunset. Starting to get some initiation in SE. Kansas now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Cap held yesterday, and has done the same today through sunset. Starting to get some initiation in SE. Kansas now though. Somewhat weaker forcing for ascent though compared to tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Somewhat weaker forcing for ascent though compared to tomorrow. No doubt. I'm actually not really concerned about capping tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 997 WFUS53 KICT 080202 TORICT KSC133-205-080230- /O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0005.150408T0202Z-150408T0230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 902 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT * AT 902 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTOONA...OR NEAR NEODESHA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. Brief tornado observed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Tornado near Neodsha/Altoona KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Another nice supercell in MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Looking at the 0z NAM... A few concerns I have with tomorrow... Moisture depth, 850mb wind direction, surface wind direction, and early initiation. I'd actually argue that the potential is greater over N-C. Missouri into W. Illinois and the STL metro area if early initiation isn't an issue and there's enough forcing to overcome capping out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The trend with respect to H85 wind direction has generally been positive today, at least from what I've seen. The Euro has been rock solid insistent on near-southerly flow all along by 00z, and I expect something close to that to verify. However, the veering earlier in the day could definitely be problematic in terms of mixing down dry air. On the plus side: model signals for convection down the dryline into W OK have really ramped up today and tonight. Of course, the triple point has also slid S to the point that it may end up in NW OK by the time all is said and done. (I hope all the "NAM is worthless beyond 12 h in all circumstances" folks take this one to heart, just like 17 April 2013.) Hoping for at least two discrete cells to fire along the DL on the OK/TX border between 21z-23z to maximize this setup's potential. If that happens and we can at least maintain 62-64 F dew points by 30-40 E of the dryline (say, Clinton and Alva), I like the chances for the first "decent" Plains tornado(es) of the year aside from the Sand Springs deal. I'd like to see stronger backing of surface winds than the current consensus, for sure -- but that may well materialize, if only in a small spatiotemporal window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'd like to see stronger backing of surface winds than the current consensus, for sure -- but that may well materialize, if only in a small spatiotemporal window. 00z GFS soundings look solid enough for tornadoes in N OK/S KS by 21z tomorrow, especially if you add a bit more surface backing than it is depicting (also has obvious convective initiation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Looking at the 0z NAM... A few concerns I have with tomorrow... Moisture depth, 850mb wind direction, surface wind direction, and early initiation. I'd actually argue that the potential is greater over N-C. Missouri into W. Illinois and the STL metro area if early initiation isn't an issue and there's enough forcing to overcome capping out that way. Warm front looks fairly solid tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's one of those days where everybody's watching the dryline and the warm front ends up being more prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Wow, that's a pretty huge area of 10% hatched, looks like they may go mod later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Decided not to head down for today. First round of initiation already occurring, from Elk City, OK down to near San Angelo, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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