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April 6-10th Severe Potential


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just wonder, but does anyone know what the day in late December was??? Especially over the plains; I don't remember a big tornado day in December ever in the plains...

 

That day actually appears to be in late November, which I would guess is November 27th, 2005.

 

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/2005/11/27/map

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It's late November, and I'm going to guess 11/27/05. Lots of reports across E KS but nothing too significant (bordering on a cold-core setup). There's no way that's in the top 13 days for Plains tornado reports for the past decade, but if Quincy meant the top day each individual year, I suppose it's possible that had more reports than any other day in 2005 (fairly quiet spring in the Plains).

oh okay thanks. Misread how the graph was setup as far as months go... Seems like it must've been a dead quiet year every where if late November had the most TOR reports
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The graph considers the single days with the most tornado reports. Used SPC's climo pages. 11/27 was the day with the most tornado reports in 2005 with 67. The #2 and #3 days were both in the fall, but centered along and east of the Mississippi.

It's a very simplistic look, as it doesn't consider days that may have had only a few tornadoes, but with one or more that were very photogenic.

I actually don't think any of the days from June 16-18, 2014 made the cut. Case in point.

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The 0z NAM is impressive for Thursday afternoon across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. CAPE is in excess of 2000j/kg coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, bulk shear of 60kt, and 0-3km SRH of 150-200m2/s2. Unidirectional shear isn't perfect, but it looks like it would be enough for a few big supercells.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46173-april-8-10-severe-threat/

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The graph considers the single days with the most tornado reports. Used SPC's climo pages. 11/27 was the day with the most tornado reports in 2005 with 67. The #2 and #3 days were both in the fall, but centered along and east of the Mississippi.

It's a very simplistic look, as it doesn't consider days that may have had only a few tornadoes, but with one or more that were very photogenic.

I actually don't think any of the days from June 16-18, 2014 made the cut. Case in point.

CAPE > shear.. if you have enough shear. ;) The most well known storm photogs are well placed to hit those days no one else is chasing but have beastly cells in the middle of bumblefook Dakotas or wherever. I mean, I guess all those days have people on them now but few hit them consistently. By mid/late May there's more consistent moisture in more places. I think you do start to trend noticeably downward by June when it comes to the big events many years, but you get little events more often or strings of days etc.  I've never chased early season in the Plains obviously but I've seen enough vid to think I'd still prefer later season. Of course outliers that anyone would want to chase like Mar 1990 or something. Someday I'll probably switch to spot chasing once or twice in a season assuming I never get out of here.. I imagine it will be tougher to decide when and when not to go at that point.

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The 06z NAM took a step forward and the 12z runs also look better. It's not as ideal as it was a couple days ago but I am a heck of a lot more hopeful than I was after yesterday's data.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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One issue I see is most guidance has initiation occurring in N. Oklahoma, S. Kansas as early as around noon, as forcing moves in early in the day.

 

On the other-hand, most of what shows that also initiates discrete convection north of ICT just prior between 22-0z.

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Hi-res model data seems to be indicating an increasing threat of some storms popping later today in SE KS. If they go they should be quite the hailers. 

 

Been watching that. The HRRR has been stalling a storm on the OK/KS border before pushing it slowwwwwly into Joplin overnight.

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Per SPC MCD, Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for NE OK, SE KS, and adjacent sections of SW MO. Thoughts on tornadic potential? Looks like mainly a large hail event to me...

Tornado Potential looks pretty low to me... Basing off of the wind fields... Veered surface flow, overlapped by a southwesterly LLJ, as well as SW'ly Mid-level flow... Along with weak'ish effective shear of 30-40kts, also helictites appear to be none existent. With all that said, anything is possible of course, very large hail is likely with any storms that do form.
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Solid write up on tomorrow from KTOP's AFD:

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, LOOKS LIKE A COMPLEX FORECAST AND THE FINAL OUTCOME MAY  
NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL LATE THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LEAD H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NM  
ACROSS WEST TX INTO OK BY 18Z WED. THIS H5 TROUGH WILL PROVIDE  
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR WIDE SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE  
SURFACE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST KS. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS  
IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST  
MO AND NORTHWEST AR DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE  
STORMS MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY  
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS FROM THE LATE MORNING HOUR THROUGH 3 PM. THIS COMPLEX OF  
STORMS WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF OUTFLOW THAT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD  
ACROSS EASTERN KS, CASING THE ENVIRONMENT TO STABILIZE ACROSS THE  
CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST MODELS  
SHOW THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS  
AND NORTH CENTRAL OK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE  
TRIPLE POINT NEAR HUTCHINSON, KS, SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE  
INTO NORTHERN OK. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST  
AND MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. THERE STILL SOME  
QUESTIONS ON HOW SEVERE THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE HOURS  
AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY IF NORTHEAST KS DOESN'T RECOVER FROM THE  
OUTFLOW OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OUTFLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
KS. THOUGH THE NAM MODEL SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING ACROSS DICKINSON  
AND MORRIS COUNTIES TO NEAR 2,000 J/KG. MUCAPES ARE 2,000 TO 3,000  
J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 3Z THU. I SUPPOSE A  
SURFACE BASED STORM MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST  
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. ANY SURFACE BASED  
STORMS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ALONG WITH  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST  
LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS.  
 
IF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE  
COMPLEX DOES NOT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS, THEN  
THE WARM FRONT MAY MOVE NORTH OF I-70 AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND EXTENDING BACK  
SOUTHWEST TO THE SURFACE DRYLINE. IN THIS SCENARIO, SURFACE BASED  
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. SLIGHTLY  
VEERED 850MB WINDS MAY PREVENT STRONGER TORNADOES FROM DEVELOPING  
BUT ANY SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  
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997 
WFUS53 KICT 080202
TORICT
KSC133-205-080230-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0005.150408T0202Z-150408T0230Z/
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
902 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
 
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
    
* AT 902 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTOONA...OR NEAR NEODESHA...MOVING EAST
  AT 15 MPH.

 

 

 

 

Brief tornado observed 

 

ScreenHunter_169%20Apr.%2007%2022.11.png

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Looking at the 0z NAM...

 

A few concerns I have with tomorrow... Moisture depth, 850mb wind direction, surface wind direction, and early initiation. 

 

I'd actually argue that the potential is greater over N-C. Missouri into W. Illinois and the STL metro area if early initiation isn't an issue and there's enough forcing to overcome capping out that way.

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The trend with respect to H85 wind direction has generally been positive today, at least from what I've seen. The Euro has been rock solid insistent on near-southerly flow all along by 00z, and I expect something close to that to verify. However, the veering earlier in the day could definitely be problematic in terms of mixing down dry air.

 

On the plus side: model signals for convection down the dryline into W OK have really ramped up today and tonight. Of course, the triple point has also slid S to the point that it may end up in NW OK by the time all is said and done. (I hope all the "NAM is worthless beyond 12 h in all circumstances" folks take this one to heart, just like 17 April 2013.)

 

Hoping for at least two discrete cells to fire along the DL on the OK/TX border between 21z-23z to maximize this setup's potential. If that happens and we can at least maintain 62-64 F dew points by 30-40 E of the dryline (say, Clinton and Alva), I like the chances for the first "decent" Plains tornado(es) of the year aside from the Sand Springs deal. I'd like to see stronger backing of surface winds than the current consensus, for sure -- but that may well materialize, if only in a small spatiotemporal window.

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I'd like to see stronger backing of surface winds than the current consensus, for sure -- but that may well materialize, if only in a small spatiotemporal window.

 

00z GFS soundings look solid enough for tornadoes in N OK/S KS by 21z tomorrow, especially if you add a bit more surface backing than it is depicting (also has obvious convective initiation).

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Looking at the 0z NAM...

 

A few concerns I have with tomorrow... Moisture depth, 850mb wind direction, surface wind direction, and early initiation. 

 

I'd actually argue that the potential is greater over N-C. Missouri into W. Illinois and the STL metro area if early initiation isn't an issue and there's enough forcing to overcome capping out that way.

 

Warm front looks fairly solid tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's one of those days where everybody's watching the dryline and the warm front ends up being more prolific.

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