natecast Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Thought it was appropriate to add a new thread about the threat tonight. SPC has added a 10% tornado risk contour and is mentioning the risk for a strong tornado in their latest update this afternoon: ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Looks like the HRRR has Joplin under the gun tonight. - Even more noteworthy is the cell it has popping up by Tulsa, sigtor readings are through the roof for Tulsa at 02Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Didn't seem like there was a huge tornado threat today. Been outta the loop, what changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 Didn't seem like there was a huge tornado threat today. Been outta the loop, what changed? There had previously been capping concerns and timing of the cold front, but progression of the front has slowed. Now, with a boundary in the area, and SBCAPE of 2,000-2,500 on current SPC mesoanalysis, and shorter term models firing convection, seems to be a bigger threat. SPC pulled the trigger on an Enhanced Risk with the first D1 outlook this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 SPC still thinking primarily unidirectional winds but we do have a tor warning near Lebanon MO till 4:30 CDT and now a 10% prob of tors in sw MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Starting to get that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I want winter back. So nervous about this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 I want winter back. So nervous about this evening. Stay safe tonight JoMo. I know you'll be on top of it and will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Deep layer shear and MLCAPE values in the 1200-1800 J/kg range willinitially be supportive of supercells...especially across southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma where Bunkers right- moving vectors will have a stronger cross-component to the surface boundary. Any supercells will then tend to move east into southern Missouri this evening. Given the presence of steeper mid-level lapse rates and increasing deep layer shear with an approaching speed max, we will be increasing our maximum potential hail size to tennis balls. We will also be increasing the tornado threat to elevated across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri as short term models have increased low level helicities into the overnight period. This is due to a rather veered low level jet and the potential for some localized backing of winds due to terrain effects across southern Missouri. Additionally, storms that develop along the front across the Missouri Ozarks may also have a tendency to track along this feature and ingest low level vorticity. Here is part of the SGF discussion of note related to the backing of the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I want winter back. So nervous about this evening. You'll be alright, man; you guys are as prepared as they come. Stay busy and keep your mind off of it the best you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 79/59 at Joplin now. I'm hoping that dewpoint spread will mitigate the tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0447 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / SWRN MO / EXTREME NWRN AR / NERN OKCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 022147Z - 022315ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN KS ANDSTORM INITIATION IS PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE STORMDEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELDACROSS SERN KS EWD INTO SWRN MO ALONG AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONTALZONE. A LEAD MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDORTOWARDS EARLY EVENING.STRONG HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ISACTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO1500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE. THE MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLEDWITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTWILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ANDISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE EARLY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITYBEFORE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE TOWARDS EVENING IN PARTIALRESPONSE TO THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. LOWERING LCL/S ANDSTRONG SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONESAND AN ATTENDANT SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK...SMITH/MEAD.. 04/02/2015ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LAT...LON 37039743 37519744 37719698 37879456 37719325 3709929136069355 36229536 37039743 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milkman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Once the Low-Level Jet kicks up around sundown the Tornado risk will increase significantly. RAP forecast hodographs are supportive or strong tornadoes in far NE OK / Joplin area. The surface low is currently centered just east of the Stillwater area with a quasi-warm front extending NEward into SE KS. Watch out along that front NE of the low center. Line of tornadic supercells possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Cap is still holding firm so far. One little shower has popped up NW of Joplin within the last couple scans however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 SPC took down the MD for the TW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The MD simply expired and we'll see a tornado watch issued soon. The 0Z sounding up in springfield shows backing low level winds and only a 5 J/Kg CIN remaining. Slight moistening and increased instability also noted compared to the 20Z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The MD simply expired and we'll see a tornado watch issued soon. The 0Z sounding up in springfield shows backing low level winds and only a 5 J/Kg CIN remaining. Slight moistening and increased instability also noted compared to the 20Z sounding. Lots of convection attempting to get going in SE KS as well... Should fire soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 As others have said we'll really see a ramp up in convective intensity after dark as the low level jet increases. The HRRR has been fairly constant in showing a substantial severe weather risk tonight in NE OK, SE KS, and SW MO. Hopefully we can keep the tornado threat out in the rural areas but I do believe we're going to have problems. LCLs will also lower after dark. A dangerous situation for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Longggg time lurker, first time poster, decided to join in on the fun this year. If I was chasing today I would be watching the developing shower/cell near cherryvale. Very near the intersection of the wf and a boundary visible on radar that runs roughly west of Tulsa to near Independence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Initiation appears imminent from far southeastern Kansas to the area just north of Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The MD simply expired and we'll see a tornado watch issued soon. The 0Z sounding up in springfield shows backing low level winds and only a 5 J/Kg CIN remaining. Slight moistening and increased instability also noted compared to the 20Z sounding. Gotcha, typically I feel like they go up pretty quick after the MD is gone. Appreciate the clarification; any predictions in regards to probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Tornado watch should be out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 What's taking the watch so long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Watch just got issued till 2am local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 What's taking the watch so long? SPC is probably waiting for confirmation that the cap has eroded before putting a formal watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 What's taking the watch so long? That's what threw me off, it's been 20-30 since the meso has disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I would really watch the storm north of Coffeyvile, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 50/20 tornado probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 705 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EVOLVE WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. A TRANSITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MIXED WITH SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 We'll likely see a slow uptick in intensity with those storms in Southeast Kansas through 8 PM CT. Right now we have multiple updrafts fighting for space and energy. Once we see one main updraft take hold that's when things get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Tornado warning is out... Looks to be heading this way eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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