Weathergun Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Just heard thunder here in Queens. Elevated instability, FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 1st thunderstorm of the spring in southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 I'm in the yonkers next to the bronx border and I didn't hear the thunder but I saw lightning and heavy rain with that embedded thunderstorm about 10 minutes ago. Got soaked while walking to the car. I love this type of weather though as long as it stays cool. I hate warmth! Bring on autumn already! Have a nice day everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Some spectacular spring weather starting tomorrow and lasting throufh most of next week...60's with shots at 70's a few days...awesome...everyone get out and enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 So much for your warm period. Maybe you crack 70F tomorrow, and it's going to come at the expense of lots of clouds, fog and some rain. Well I already hit 72 on Monday and mid 60s Tuesday...so two cold days and then spring like temps with some shot at 70...sounds like a warm period to me not the cold washout many were predicting for April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Waiting on the warm front today but a pretty stretch coming up. Surprised to hear thunder this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Classic April back door pattern so far where areas south of the Driscoll Bridge do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 dank and dreary here, 41. Doubt the front clears this far north and east, will have to wait til tomorrow for anything nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Cold front looking healthy on radar over Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Classic April back door pattern so far where areas south of the Driscoll Bridge do better. MonthTDeptNRCC.png More like south of PHL. -2.9 for April here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Cold front looking healthy on radar over Central PA better hope that warm front gets north or the activity is going to die out somewhat as it hits the stubborn/stable maritime airmass in place. Front is still well south of PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Cold front looking healthy on radar over Central PA That has no chance with the airmass over us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 More like south of PHL. -2.9 for April here so far. You are a little too far east as TTN is at +1.9 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 You are a little too far east as TTN is at +1.9 so far.the metro stations are right around 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Well I already hit 72 on Monday and mid 60s Tuesday...so two cold days and then spring like temps with some shot at 70...sounds like a warm period to me not the cold washout many were predicting for April The forecast for NYC shows low 60s (if we get there) today, 60 tomorrow, and low to mid 60s most of the next week. Late next week could be another backdoor set-up. Looks like a near normal pattern to me. If I want hyperbole, I can go to the media. Let's try to be objective here. This has not been a warmer than normal pattern for the Northeast. Temp departures April so far: NYC: 0.1 LGA: -0.2 JFK: -0.4 Islip: -1.8 Bridgeport: -2.2 Newark: 0.3 New Jersey northeastward has been normal to cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 that map is behind a paywall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 You are a little too far east as TTN is at +1.9 so far. Yeah, and sometimes the differences due to radiational cooling become significant as well. Impressive SW-NE gradient so far this month as one goes from DCA northeastward to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Another case of meteorology > modelology. A strong sfc high near Newfoundland is one that argues for a slower than progged warm frontal progression. The Euro at one point had me in the upper 70s for today, and now my latest point and click is 62F. We're up into the low 50s as winds have gone light southerly, but I don't see any sun breaking through this afternoon. We could still make 60F here. Will be tougher NYC northeastward. Most will be warmer behind the cold front for this weekend. Still looks like a beautiful stretch of weather coming up for Sat-Mon at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Another case of meteorology > modelology. A strong sfc high near Newfoundland is one that argues for a slower than progged warm frontal progression. The Euro at one point had me in the upper 70s for today, and now my latest point and click is 62F. We're up into the low 50s as winds have gone light southerly, but I don't see any sun breaking through this afternoon. We could still make 60F here. Will be tougher NYC northeastward. Most will be warmer behind the cold front for this weekend. Still looks like a beautiful stretch of weather coming up for Sat-Mon at least. Any model showing a warm front blasting northward after a backdoor is entrenched (this time of year) is liable to bust. 45 here with drizzle and the line of showers with the main front is falling apart faster than the Yankees season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Yet my forecast still shows us getting to 68F which I highly doubt. It's barely 50F right now and the only 60's I see in NJ is extreme S NJ. I mean sure temps could spike but usually there are tell-tale signs of that happening, which right now there aren't any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 What hyperbole...I never said it was a warm spring...I said the upcoming pattern will have springlike weather. There were alot of doom and gloom cold forecasts.Some of us will hit 70 Sunday and monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Yet my forecast still shows us getting to 68F which I highly doubt. It's barely 50F right now and the only 60's I see in NJ is extreme S NJ. I mean sure temps could spike but usually there are tell-tale signs of that happening, which right now there aren't any. looking at the visible cloud shot, there's no breaks until you get to DE, so that's another thing against us. Some spots may see a late day spike/high, but for most of this forum, today's forecast is going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 What hyperbole...I never said it was a warm spring...I said the upcoming pattern will have springlike weather. There were alot of doom and gloom cold forecasts.Some of us will hit 70 Sunday and monday springlike weather in mid April? Bold call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 just had a convective-like rain shower come through. Was hoping to start yardwork in earnest today but 45 and wet isn't cutting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 To be fair, there are pro mets on this forum who totally blew the forecast for today and should acknowledge that, cough, cough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 To be fair, there are pro mets on this forum who totally blew the forecast for today and should acknowledge that, cough, cough. I know Forky was pretty gung-ho on the warm front tearing through. The verdict is still out on how warm it gets but you could forget 70F+ readings right now. I'm really wondering how long NYC continues this no 70F streak because there's a chance it extends for another 7+ days pending on how warm Monday gets. My warmest forecast high is 71F for Monday but NYC always tends to run a bit cooler than central NJ, after that it's mostly mid to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Sun was just out here on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Cold front has a very broken up look on radar. Marine air doing it's work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 The Euro is continuing with the idea of a decent amplification and attendant storm potential about 8 days out. We'll see if the model follows through here with this idea as we get closer. ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png That looks delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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