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April Discussion


IsentropicLift

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I'm in the yonkers next to the bronx border and I didn't hear the thunder but I saw lightning and heavy rain with that embedded thunderstorm about 10 minutes ago. Got soaked while walking to the car. I love this type of weather though as long as it stays cool. I hate warmth! Bring on autumn already! Have a nice day everyone!

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So much for your warm period. Maybe you crack 70F tomorrow, and it's going to come at the expense of lots of clouds, fog and some rain.

Well I already hit 72 on Monday and mid 60s Tuesday...so two cold days and then spring like temps with some shot at 70...sounds like a warm period to me not the cold washout many were predicting for April

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Well I already hit 72 on Monday and mid 60s Tuesday...so two cold days and then spring like temps with some shot at 70...sounds like a warm period to me not the cold washout many were predicting for April

 

 

 

The forecast for NYC shows low 60s (if we get there) today, 60 tomorrow, and low to mid 60s most of the next week. Late next week could be another backdoor set-up. Looks like a near normal pattern to me. If I want hyperbole, I can go to the media. Let's try to be objective here. This has not been a warmer than normal pattern for the Northeast.

 

Temp departures April so far:

 

NYC: 0.1

LGA: -0.2

JFK: -0.4

Islip: -1.8

Bridgeport: -2.2

Newark: 0.3

 

 

New Jersey northeastward has been normal to cooler than normal.

 

 

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png

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Another case of meteorology > modelology. A strong sfc high near Newfoundland is one that argues for a slower than progged warm frontal progression. The Euro at one point had me in the upper 70s for today, and now my latest point and click is 62F. We're up into the low 50s as winds have gone light southerly, but I don't see any sun breaking through this afternoon. We could still make 60F here. Will be tougher NYC northeastward.

 

Most will be warmer behind the cold front for this weekend. Still looks like a beautiful stretch of weather coming up for Sat-Mon at least.

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Another case of meteorology > modelology. A strong sfc high near Newfoundland is one that argues for a slower than progged warm frontal progression. The Euro at one point had me in the upper 70s for today, and now my latest point and click is 62F. We're up into the low 50s as winds have gone light southerly, but I don't see any sun breaking through this afternoon. We could still make 60F here. Will be tougher NYC northeastward.

 

Most will be warmer behind the cold front for this weekend. Still looks like a beautiful stretch of weather coming up for Sat-Mon at least.

Any model showing a warm front blasting northward after a backdoor is entrenched (this time of year) is liable to bust.   45 here with drizzle and the line of showers with the main front is falling apart faster than the Yankees season.

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Yet my forecast still shows us getting to 68F which I highly doubt. It's barely 50F right now and the only 60's I see in NJ is extreme S NJ. I mean sure temps could spike but usually there are tell-tale signs of that happening, which right now there aren't any. 

looking at the visible cloud shot, there's no breaks until you get to DE, so that's another thing against us.   Some spots may see a late day spike/high, but for most of this forum, today's forecast is going to bust.

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To be fair, there are pro mets on this forum who totally blew the forecast for today and should acknowledge that, cough, cough.

I know Forky was pretty gung-ho on the warm front tearing through. The verdict is still out on how warm it gets but you could forget 70F+ readings right now.

I'm really wondering how long NYC continues this no 70F streak because there's a chance it extends for another 7+ days pending on how warm Monday gets.

My warmest forecast high is 71F for Monday but NYC always tends to run a bit cooler than central NJ, after that it's mostly mid to upper 60s.

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