LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 In the Midwest it was even worse. Chicago had 8 days over 80 that March in a 9 day period. Their March as a whole was 15.6 degrees above normal. It ended up being warmer than their average April.I think it was even crazier then that up in northern Michigan with warmer temps then a normal May. Personally I would like a normal spring but normal is not normal anymore. Feast or famine. Today is about as misserable a day as you can get. Raw drizzle low clouds and low 40s. I honestly do not see how anyone could possibly like today's weather. Even a hard core weather enthusiast like myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 40 degrees, off and on drizzle, raw NE winds... yuck Friday needs to come and fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 NYC looks to keep the no 70 day streak going. ...NEW YORK CITY...CENTRAL PARK, NY ...NEW YORK CITY...CENTRAL PARK, NYSHWRS SHWRS SHWRS PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY SHWRS/44 37/45 43/66 47/61 44/63 45/63 51/64/80 80/60 60/60 60/10 10/00 00/10 30/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 NYC looks to keep the no 70 day streak going. ...NEW YORK CITY... CENTRAL PARK, NY ...NEW YORK CITY... CENTRAL PARK, NY SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY SHWRS /44 37/45 43/66 47/61 44/63 45/63 51/64 /80 80/60 60/60 60/10 10/00 00/10 30/50 0z Euro has highs 72 for NYC and 76 for EWR on Friday. 80 around PHL. It's been bouncing back on temperatures though. Probably due to how it handles clouds and sea-breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 0z Euro has highs 72 for NYC and 76 for EWR on Friday. 80 around PHL. It's been bouncing back on temperatures though. Probably due to how it handles clouds and sea-breezes. The GFS MOS tops out at 67 in NYC. We could crack 70 in NYC if we get just a few breaks of sun since the 850's are so warm. But the GFS and NAM have been more pessimistic so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Chilly April morning. 40 degrees, but feels colder. Maybe Friday will be the first 70 on the thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 I wouldn't be expecting the warm front to make it much past Rt. 78. Friday still has a lot of clouds to deal with which will keep temps down and then the cold front crosses the area later in the day bringing one last chance of significant rain. Down in Philly, CNJ and SNJ is a different story. Think up here we struggle to get to 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The GFS MOS tops out at 67 in NYC. We could crack 70 in NYC if we get just a few breaks of sun since the 850's are so warm. But the GFS and NAM have been more pessimistic so far. The GFS and NAM are slower with surface warm front pushing northward Friday. It would keep NYC under more clouds and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 If the warm front can make it far enough North, a big if, then the LLJ arrives later in the day with the cold front and some SBCAPE. Could be our first somewhat interesting convective episode of the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The GFS MOS tops out at 67 in NYC. We could crack 70 in NYC if we get just a few breaks of sun since the 850's are so warm. But the GFS and NAM have been more pessimistic so far. I think many places around here will break out of the clouds, midday Friday--could even turn partly to mostly sunny for a time. I expect the models to bust on the low side temp-wise, excluding the immediate coast. As you said 850's are plenty warm, so just a little surface heating and temps skyrocket... My bet is NYC cracks 70, Friday, and will do it pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 That warm front is gonna stall just south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I think many places around here will break out of the clouds, midday Friday. I expect the models to bust on the low side temp-wise, excluding the immediate coast. As you said 850's are plenty warm, so just a little surface heating and temps skyrocket... My bet is NYC cracks 70, Friday, and will do it pretty easily. We'll see if the next few runs of the Euro follow through on the warmer 0Z guidance since the Tuesday 12z was cooler. But with the 850's so warm it wont take much even for NYC to make to 70 with just a short break of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 NYC looks to keep the no 70 day streak going. ...NEW YORK CITY... CENTRAL PARK, NY ...NEW YORK CITY... CENTRAL PARK, NY SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY SHWRS /44 37/45 43/66 47/61 44/63 45/63 51/64 /80 80/60 60/60 60/10 10/00 00/10 30/50 You will almost always bust way too low, following mos, behind strong warm fronts...It will also bust, the day of, meaning it will never catch up to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 If this warm front does end up passing thru NYC i would hope for some nice thunderstorm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 You will almost always bust way too low, following mos, behind strong warm fronts...It will also bust, the day of, meaning it will never catch up to reality. That always been the case, but the NWS likes to go more conservative with temperature forecasts past a few days so they usually just ride the MOS. The MOS underestimates strong CAA and strong WAA, but it's a good starting point until the finer details become better known under 48 hrs. The MOS is valuable in showing that clouds and surface flow will be important on Friday as you can see the spread between NYC and EWR coming in at 67/72 on the latest run. If the front makes it through, then add 3-5 degrees to those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The 0z UKMET also has 74 for EWR, 70 for NYC and LGA on Friday. 850mb temps look around +14C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The 0z UKMET also has 74 for EWR, 70 for NYC and LGA on Friday. 850mb temps look around +14C. If the next few runs follow suit than it will be our first 70 since the 12z Tuesday guidance was cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 850mb temperatures are very warm, so if we can get any mixing with some breaks in cloud cover, 70s are doable. DC/BWI will likely surge into the 80s. However, I'm not yet sure if there will be any breaks in cloud cover Friday, particularly close to the coast. Friday morning looks slow to clear, and the front will be approaching from the west during the afternoon. So there may be a brief window for some breaks, but right now I'd err toward upper 60s in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 It would only be my 2nd 70F+ day since January 1, which is very uncommon as we often see well more than a handful just from March 15 onward. Also deja vu on the gfs for next week. Warm early week turns to a cool onshore flow for 2-3 days followed by a warm frontal passage and cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 That always been the case, but the NWS likes to go more conservative with temperature forecasts past a few days so they usually just ride the MOS. The MOS underestimates strong CAA and strong WAA, but it's a good starting point until the finer details become better known under 48 hrs. The MOS is valuable in showing that clouds and surface flow will be important on Friday as you can see the spread between NYC and EWR coming in at 67/72 on the latest run. If the front makes it through, then add 3-5 degrees to those numbers. Yes. Mos has a signficant climatological component, which smooths out extremes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 so much for upton last night tossing the dry GFS for today-looks spot on and they have now cut way back on precip for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 so much for upton last night tossing the dry GFS for today-looks spot on and they have now cut way back on precip for today There is a line of showers with some heavier embedded cells over E PA slowly approaching the area. Should be in here by mid-afternoon. They may look to be weakening a bit, but it's probably because they are near the edge of the State College and Mt. Holly radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 There is a line of showers with some heavier embedded cells over E PA slowly approaching the area. Should be in here by mid-afternoon. They may look to be weakening a bit, but it's probably because they are near the edge of the State College and Mt. Holly radars. Rgem has nothing but light rain and scattered showers. Mostly south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Rgem has nothing but light rain and scattered showers. Mostly south of NYC. Dry air being invected here from the NE, so doubt much gets in here outside of some sprinkles, light showers like the RGEM shows...what looked to be a rainy week is turning into a .25-.50 grand total. (which is fine by me-need to dry things out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Rgem has nothing but light rain and scattered showers. Mostly south of NYC. Nobody said anything about an organized area of strati-form rain, but the radar looks good for scattered shower activity with embedded moderate to heavy downpours, I'll take it. If it's going to be cloudy and cool for days then we might as well get some decent rains out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Nobody said anything about an organized area of strati-form rain, but the radar looks good for scattered shower activity with embedded moderate to heavy downpours, I'll take it. If it's going to be cloudy and cool for days then we might as well get some decent rains out of it. That's running into a wall of dry air though, you'll be lucky to see .10 today...the organized rains are moving well north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Dry air being invected here from the NE, so doubt much gets in here outside of some sprinkles, light showers like the RGEM shows...what looked to be a rainy week is turning into a .25-.50 grand total. (which is fine by me-need to dry things out) I'm already over that amount here. It's not going to be the widespread 2"+ event that I was hoping for but it's not going to be as dry as you're making it out to be. If we get some semi organized convection on Friday, someone could easily pick up a quick inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 That's running into a wall of dry air though, you'll be lucky to see .10 today...the organized rains are moving well north of us. We shall see, keeping my fingers crossed that the activity holds together. I'm well West of you so I have a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 We shall see, keeping my fingers crossed that the activity holds together. I'm well West of you so I have a better chance. True. Dews have been dropped all morning here...decent winds out of the northeast pulling in the dry air. About as nasty a day here in the spring time....44/28 with wind chills in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 warmer and warmer as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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