Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 It's going to be a really wet next several days, not wall to wall rain, but a constant threat of showers with periods of rain. Hopefully we can pick up a few inches of soaking rain. looks pretty hit or miss to me, I'd be surprised if anyone sees more than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Latest GFS only only gets the 70 degree readings on Friday as far north as Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Spring ? .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MID AND UPPERLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES. FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAYPERIOD...MID AND UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL TENDENCY REMAINSRELATIVELY CONSTANT.FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STAYSNORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...NOT A LOT OF STEERING FLOWLEADING TO AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF WEATHER FEATURES AT THESURFACE. ALSO ON THE LARGE SCALE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE BASED IN THESOUTHEAST WILL HAVE ITS AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAYAND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEPAN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THESTRUCTURE OF THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD...AN INVERTEDTROUGH IS SEEN WEST OF THE REGION WHERE THERE WILL BE OVERRUNNING INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDEARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FORSOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LONGISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I didn't realize how warm the 06z gfs was around mid month. We could easily see our first 80F or greater if it verifies. We'll probably pay for it later as early heat generally doesn't bode well later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Spring ? .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES. FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...MID AND UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL TENDENCY REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSTANT. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...NOT A LOT OF STEERING FLOW LEADING TO AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF WEATHER FEATURES AT THE SURFACE. ALSO ON THE LARGE SCALE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE BASED IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE ITS AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS SEEN WEST OF THE REGION WHERE THERE WILL BE OVERRUNNING INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LONG ISLAND. temp swings are normal this time of year. so yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Why isn't anyone discussing the super cold NAM/RGEM combo? Gets frozen into the CT river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Why isn't anyone discussing the super cold NAM/RGEM combo? Gets frozen into the CT river valley.No one cares about non accumulating sleet pellets mixing in with rain with temps in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 temp swings are normal this time of year. so yes Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Why isn't anyone discussing the super cold NAM/RGEM combo? Gets frozen into the CT river valley. because it affect no one in this subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 Why is it that every high end/long duration precipitation event the last several years has greatly fizzled out the last several years? It's been years here since we had a 3"+ rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yep Sunday at 6z? Overnight temps in the mid to upper 30's is no big deal; it's actually pretty close to seasonal. By 18z we're in the mid 50's.... There is nothing impressive about the airmass behind this, as I've already mentioned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 5 years ago today it was 92 degrees in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Sunday at 6z? Overnight temps in the mid to upper 30's is no big deal; it's actually pretty close to seasonal. By 18z we're in the mid 50's.... There is nothing impressive about the airmass behind this, as I've already mentioned... Mid to upper 30`s 36 hours after being close to 70 was the point . Seasonal swings were discussed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Mid to upper 30`s 36 hours after being close to 70 was the point . Seasonal wings were discussed . Not much of a swing in my book, when considering diurnal temperature variation... I'm just underscoring the point that we're not going from way above normal, to way below normal... It's simply from moderately above, to about average.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 5 years ago today it was 92 degrees in NYC. 040721.png that was a pre-cursor to the hot summer of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 5 years ago today it was 92 degrees in NYC. 040721.png Yeah I forgot about that...hit 92 here also, with a low of 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yeah I forgot about that...hit 92 here also, with a low of 52. The pattern flipped after the 2/25-2/26 snowstorm to produce our warmest spring and summer on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Down to 48F from 65F here. 40F at the NJ coast in Seaside Heights. Meanwhile 70 in SW NJ, over the span of 30 miles or so. Impressive BD front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 49F and amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 48 degrees down from 61 early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 Finally a decently soaking rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Moderate rain here in Dobbs Ferry. 46/44 with a nasty NE wind. Heat is back on.. Amazing how delayed the spring is here. Almost no buds on the maple and beech trees in the local woods. Nothing on the weeping cherry. Just a few crocus and daffodils out..I remember in 2010 when we were nearing full leaf out by April 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Moderate rain here in Dobbs Ferry. 46/44 with a nasty NE wind. Heat is back on.. Amazing how delayed the spring is here. Almost no buds on the maple and beech trees in the local woods. Nothing on the weeping cherry. Just a few crocus and daffodils out..I remember in 2010 when we were nearing full leaf out by April 15th. Crocus and daffodils are for March! We are right around last year. We should be seeing fruit trees blumming now and trees really budding up.A couple of sunny day in the 60s will get he fruit trees going. Super nasty out right now damp drizzle an 40s is only slightly better then damp drizzle and 30s in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Crocus and daffodils are for March! We are right around last year. We should be seeing fruit trees blumming now and trees really budding up. A couple of sunny day in the 60s will get he fruit trees going. Super nasty out right now damp drizzle an 40s is only slightly better then damp drizzle and 30s in winter The NYC average temperature in March 2010 was closer to the usual March average temperature for Richmond, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The NYC average temperature in March 2010 was closer to the usual March average temperature for Richmond, VA. That's serious thats like Bangor Maine switching with us. Meanwhile there is nothing but a couple crocus blooming on the upper west side. I have seen crocus bloom during the middle of the winter during a very warm period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 that was a pre-cursor to the hot summer of 2010 God forbid. Give me last summer every year. Highest temp was 92 and only 4 days above 90 the whole summer. And I believe as a whole June through August was right at normal. Uncle posted those stats a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 That's serious thats like Bangor Maine switching with us. Meanwhile there is nothing but a couple crocus blooming on the upper west side. I have seen crocus bloom during the middle of the winter during a very warm period In the Midwest it was even worse. Chicago had 8 days over 80 that March in a 9 day period. Their March as a whole was 15.6 degrees above normal. It ended up being warmer than their average April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 44 here right now 43 is my projected high for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The NYC average temperature in March 2010 was closer to the usual March average temperature for Richmond, VA. This statistic speaks volumes about how warm March 2012 really was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 This statistic speaks volumes about how warm March 2012 really was. Just goes to show how important the EPO and PDO are in determining our local temperatures. To get such a big swing from one extreme to the other within a 6 year period is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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