IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 No extended warmth in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 Next chance of significant, widespread rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 We'll probably just have a few seasonably cool days. It could be a lot different if some coastal occurs but I'm not counting on that happening. If it doesn't then it'll be 5-10 degrees below for Thurs-Friday and it'll gradually rebound towards normal beyond that. We may see some frost pending on winds and clear skies especially far N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 the NAM is bullish but we've heard that before the gfs has an impressive wind profile with a fully mixed lower atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 The model forecasts are showing only the 4th year in the last 30 years that NYC could dip under 40 degrees from 4/24-4/30. NYC lows under 30 degrees 4/24-4/30 since 1980: 4/28/12...38 4/27/00...37 4/24/89...37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I'll bet the under IMBY..79 total IMBY, yet another under performer in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Amazing setup for a big storm next week on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 .79 total IMBY, yet another under performer in this neck of the woods. Most of the activity stayed South, West and then Southeast of the LHV yesterday morning however the convection that blew through just after midnight moved right over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Thunderstorm passing thru right now at LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Most of the activity stayed South, West and then Southeast of the LHV yesterday morning however the convection that blew through just after midnight moved right over the region. Good for you guys that got over an inch. Obviously it was still a decent soaking here but the trend of it being drier than modeled IMBY is still going strong from last year. Of course its all relative because folks in CA would love to have the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Good for you guys that got over an inch. Obviously it was still a decent soaking here but the trend of it being drier than modeled IMBY is still going strong from last year. Of course its all relative because folks in CA would love to have the rain. Just about every system this year has trended drier as we've gotten closer, however we're getting into a statistically more active and wet time period before the jet retreats North in about a month and chances of organized synoptic rainfall greatly diminish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Could be an unusually strong late April storm event around the 28th should the northern and southern streams phase along the lines of the Euro. All the pieces are there from strong blocking to an energized STJ cutting underneath. So it will be interesting to see what the Euro and ensembles do in later runs as we approach the 120 hr window for better accuracy. I believe the last major storm this late in the spring was May 11-13, 2008. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/05132008.html Only if we got an anomalous cold shot if this even happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Could be an unusually strong late April storm event around the 28th should the northern and southern streams phase along the lines of the Euro. All the pieces are there from strong blocking to an energized STJ cutting underneath. So it will be interesting to see what the Euro and ensembles do in later runs as we approach the 120 hr window for better accuracy. I believe the last major storm this late in the spring was May 11-13, 2008. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/05132008.html Where and when the energy closes off will be key as whether or not the system is a big rain maker further southwest or if we're able to cash in. The 00z GGEM had an anomalously deep trough over the east day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 For those that think the day 8 Euro storm is just a meh rainmaker, that model is showing 60k+ gusts on the south facing shores of LI, Queens and Brooklyn at 192 hrs and 50k+ gusts as far inland as NE PA. Not a bad analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Some of the individual euro ensemble members get the surface low down into the low 970's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 Day 8 00z GFS is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Crazy things happen during a blocking pattern so the gfs depiction doesn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Temperature departures have peaked for April around the region and will begin falling with the colder weather forecast for the remainder of the month. NYC....2.5 LGA....2.0 JFK.....2.3 EWR...2.6 ISP.....1.0 BDR...1.0 +1.7 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Every model has a big rainstorm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Touching 70....another positive departure day for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Not so sure we want all this rain upcoming. All it is going to do is skyrocket the soil moisture above normal even more and make the chances for a humid late spring and summer even greater. Nothing is worse than high dewpoints/humidity IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Not so sure we want all this rain upcoming. All it is going to do is skyrocket the soil moisture above normal even more and make the chances for a humid late spring and summer even greater. Nothing is worse than high dewpoints/humidity IMO You've been pining for summertime heat since the second week of February. Most of the region is relatively dry, and has been since at least last summer. Absolutely nothing wrong with rain in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The good thing about a late season block is that we'll still have nice days after today. The coolest it ever gets to for highs is the mid 50s and you could probably add on a couple degrees because of heating. That's not that far from normal and we rebound to normal by the weekend. There's nothing wrong with upper 50s to mid 60s this time of year, they are going to feel fantastic. Also it'll be dry for the most part until maybe a week from now so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 You've been pining for summertime heat since the second week of February. Most of the region is relatively dry, and has been since at least last summer. Absolutely nothing wrong with rain in April. summer heat? No warm weather? Yes. And I hate humidity more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 If we get the massive closed low over the TN Valley which most of the global runs have been showing, it will be a rather miserable 2-3 days with periods of heavy rain, overcast skies and temps well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 You've been pining for summertime heat since the second week of February. Most of the region is relatively dry, and has been since at least last summer. Absolutely nothing wrong with rain in April. Agreed. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 If we get the massive closed low over the TN Valley which most of the global runs have been showing, it will be a rather miserable 2-3 days with periods of heavy rain, overcast skies and temps well below normal. I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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