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April Discussion


IsentropicLift

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We'll probably just have a few seasonably cool days. It could be a lot different if some coastal occurs but I'm not counting on that happening. 

 

If it doesn't then it'll be 5-10 degrees below  for Thurs-Friday and it'll gradually rebound towards normal beyond that. We may see some frost pending on winds and clear skies especially far N&W.

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Most of the activity stayed South, West and then Southeast of the LHV yesterday morning however the convection that blew through just after midnight moved right over the region. 

Good for you guys that got over an inch.  Obviously it was still a decent soaking here but the trend of it being drier than modeled IMBY is still going strong from last year.  Of course its all relative because folks in CA would love to have the rain.

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Good for you guys that got over an inch.  Obviously it was still a decent soaking here but the trend of it being drier than modeled IMBY is still going strong from last year.  Of course its all relative because folks in CA would love to have the rain.

Just about every system this year has trended drier as we've gotten closer, however we're getting into a statistically more active and wet time period before the jet retreats North in about a month and chances of organized synoptic rainfall greatly diminish. 

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Could be an unusually strong late April storm event around the 28th should the

northern and southern streams phase along the lines of the Euro. All the pieces

are there from strong blocking to an energized STJ cutting underneath. So

it will be interesting to see what the Euro and ensembles do in later runs

as we approach the 120 hr window for better accuracy. I believe the

last major storm this late in the spring was May 11-13, 2008.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/05132008.html

Only if we got an anomalous cold shot if this even happens

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Could be an unusually strong late April storm event around the 28th should the 

northern and southern streams phase along the lines of the Euro. All the pieces

are there from strong blocking to an energized  STJ cutting underneath. So

it will be interesting to see what the Euro and ensembles do in later runs

as we approach the 120 hr window for better accuracy. I believe the

last major storm this late in the spring was May 11-13, 2008.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/05132008.html

Where and when the energy closes off will be key as whether or not the system is a big rain maker further southwest or if we're able to cash in. The 00z GGEM had an anomalously deep trough over the east day 8.

 

 f192.gif

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Not so sure we want all this rain upcoming. All it is going to do is skyrocket the soil moisture above normal even more and make the chances for a humid late spring and summer even greater. Nothing is worse than high dewpoints/humidity IMO

You've been pining for summertime heat since the second week of February.

 

Most of the region is relatively dry, and has been since at least last summer. Absolutely nothing wrong with rain in April.

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The good thing about a late season block is that we'll still have nice days after today. The coolest it ever gets to for highs is the mid 50s and you could probably add on a couple degrees because of heating. That's not that far from normal and we rebound to normal by the weekend. There's nothing wrong with upper 50s to mid 60s this time of year, they are going to feel fantastic. 

 

Also it'll be dry for the most part until maybe a week from now so no worries.

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You've been pining for summertime heat since the second week of February.

Most of the region is relatively dry, and has been since at least last summer. Absolutely nothing wrong with rain in April.

summer heat? No warm weather? Yes. And I hate humidity more than anything
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