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April Discussion


IsentropicLift

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So much for no 70s or not hitting 80 this month. Basically unless the winds are easterly you should always add a few degrees on top of guidance temps.

We can do allot with this sun angle even on a NW wind. Unless it's an insanely cold air mass the sun angle an down sloping is gonna produce low 70s on completely sunny skies.

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We can do allot with this sun angle even on a NW wind. Unless it's an insanely cold air mass the sun angle an down sloping is gonna produce low 70s on completely sunny skies.

Wow, good job with the highs today. Parents said it was gorgeous in Long Beach and people were flocking to the boardwalk/beach. 

 

Here, golf ball (or bigger) sized hail is about 5 miles away and barreling in my direction. Should be a fun next half hour. Radar indicates 60-70mph wind gusts too. Very loud thunder and some big lightning flashes in the western sky.

 

Wow, wind really picking up now ahead of this, trees shaking. 

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Departures are well above normal this month (+2.5-4) and there's absolutely no way we'll even drop down to normal. We won't go below normal until Thursday most likely which will be the 23rd of April.

We would need a string of -10 or lower departures for nearly that entire last week for us to get normal/below normal for April. I'm looking at my forecast and they've been ticking highs upward each day.

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Departures are well above normal this month (+2.5-4) and there's absolutely no way we'll even drop down to normal. We won't go below normal until Wednesday most likely which will be the 23rd of April.

We would need a string of -10 or lower departures for nearly that entire last week for us to get normal/below normal for April. I'm looking at my forecast and they've been ticking highs upward each day.

 

 

Where are departures +4?  LGA's at +2.2, JFK +2.2, EWR and NYC are at +2.8

 

The provisional final departure for NYC based on current model output verbatim is +0.5. So assuming the magnitude of this cool period occurs as progged, most major stations will be finishing April fairly close to normal.

 

Both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles are indicating at least several days of potential -10 daily departures in the April 23rd-April 30th period. The pattern should break to a more prolonged warmer one in my view by early May, but the last week of April looks anomalously chilly, more like late March.

 

We'll see what happens, but I'll take the under on +1 at Central Park for this month, with the possibility they finish 0 to +0.5, and a lower chance of slightly below 0 if we get a rain maker to keep highs in the 40s for a day or two.

 

 

2bv987.png

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Warmer April readings have won out through the early part of this week as we saw the first

meaningful relaxation in the -EPO/+PNA pattern since December. But the change to cooler

temps later this week into next will be a result of the first significant NAO block since the fall

retrograding west across Greenland to Canada. It's interesting that the -EPO also relaxed

last April for a time. 

 

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Will likely have several nights w/ opportunities for freezes outside of NYC in the 23rd-30th period.

 

Looks like a chilly / dry pattern right now due to a suppressive vortex in Quebec. I think the best chance for a rain maker would be near the end of April as the pattern begins to break down.

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Will likely have several nights w/ opportunities for freezes outside of NYC in the 23rd-30th period.

 

Looks like a chilly / dry pattern right now due to a suppressive vortex in Quebec. I think the best chance for a rain maker would be near the end of April as the pattern begins to break down.

very similar to last year after a suppressive March as well.

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Beautiful -NAO looks to rule for the upcoming week. Now if we can get that ULL to close off a little further South we could be in for one of the wettest, unseasonably cool end of April in several years.

 

f120.gif

 

I feel like I remember the last day of April 2014 also being quite cold, stormy, and nasty.  Is my memory off?

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