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April Discussion


IsentropicLift

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the one thing we can hope for is that should the NAO drop negative as that chart shows, looks like a quick bounceback into positive territory.

 

The Euro ensemble freebie from WSI retrogrades the block back to north of Alaska day 11-15 with the trough staying 

put over the NE. This would be a gorgeous winter pattern that would get the snow geese honking.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/588278994832859136

 

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Light showers for Friday. 0.10-0.25" areawide, more North, less South.

 

Only other rain day on the Euro is Monday into Tuesday. Euro shows 1.50"+ for everyone with 1.75"+ SW of NYC.

 

We can do well with spring overunning warm frontal set ups north of the triple point low like the Euro is showing.

The neg tilt trough is something that has been missing with recent events that fizzled out.

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if that trough sets up shop, we're cool and maybe damp regardless of the NAO...at least we're a few weeks later and that probably means 50 instead of 40. Last week was brutal.

Damp and 50s is not what most people want to hear as we end April and enter May. I wonder if frost will become an issue. I don't see it on the OP runs yet.

The blocking looks legit this time. I assume the NAO doesn't work the same as it would mid winter but the EPO should be negative as well, which is probably why things will likely trend cooler than normal. Still don't think it'll be enough to make April below normal though.

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Damp and 50s is not what most people want to hear as we end April and enter May. I wonder if frost will become an issue. I don't see it on the OP runs yet.

The blocking looks legit this time. I assume the NAO doesn't work the same as it would mid winter but the EPO should be negative as well, which is probably why things will likely trend cooler than normal. Still don't think it'll be enough to make April below normal though.

only way we're going to see a big frost is with a big shot of cold air and clear skies...damp and maritime flow ain't going to do it.  

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only way we're going to see a big frost is with a big shot of cold air and clear skies...damp and maritime flow ain't going to do it.  

 

Spring frost is one of my favorite things.  But you're right, you need a really good radiator with some cold air in place to do the trick.

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Had a 14% reading on the vantagepro here this afternoon.

 

I can remember some of the crazy dry records out west during the 2011 record heat and drought.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/las-vegas-sets-himidity-record-but-its-a-dry-heat/51705

 

The National Weather Service in Las Vegas, Nevada issued a statement yesterday saying they had reached a record "dew point depression" of 129 degrees (or: low humidity of 1%) when their temperature was 107 with a dew point of -22 F.

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I can remember some of the crazy dry records out west during the 2011 record heat and drought.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/las-vegas-sets-himidity-record-but-its-a-dry-heat/51705

The National Weather Service in Las Vegas, Nevada issued a statement yesterday saying they had reached a record "dew point depression" of 129 degrees (or: low humidity of 1%) when their temperature was 107 with a dew point of -22 F.

That. Is. Awesome!!!!!!!!

I noticed my skin was dry and cranking today and I never ever concern myself with those sorts of things. I'll take the dry skin for perfect low 70s and the first sun dresses of the season on Broadway any day!!!

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I can remember some of the crazy dry records out west during the 2011 record heat and drought.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/las-vegas-sets-himidity-record-but-its-a-dry-heat/51705

 

The National Weather Service in Las Vegas, Nevada issued a statement yesterday saying they had reached a record "dew point depression" of 129 degrees (or: low humidity of 1%) when their temperature was 107 with a dew point of -22 F.

 

That is completely insane.

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Saturday looks like the warmest day of the month so far with a warm downslope flow.

We could see temps overshooting guidance again by several degrees which could

put NYC in the 75-77 degree range and close to the maxes for April 2014 and 2000.

April max temperatures in NYC since 2000:

15...72....so far

14...77...April temperature departure....-0.7

13...82

12...88

11...83

10...92

09...92

08...84

07...86

06...83

05...87

04...85

03...88

02...96

01...87

00...75.....April temperature departure...-1.5

I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 78-79. But a good bit cooler today than yesterday but it think we'll hit 65 today
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