bluewave Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 1970 had the most 90 degrees days with 22...The rest had 10 days or less...March's with late snowfalls between the 16th and 22nd usually had a cool summer...1958 and 2004 are two analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Well I bet a few of our hot weather fanatics won't be happy to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 How are we looking precip wise? Will an El Niño be present this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 analogs heading toward a second el nino or plus weak enso look like this... ................................................................................................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Interesting that none of the years on your list were +ENSO / oncoming El Nino's, which tend to produce a cooler signal across the East. We'll have to wait and see how the pattern evolves over the next couple months, as I'm not sold on a classic +ENSO / cool summer at this point. Could easily see how we're hot to perhaps very hot. Teleconnection indices such as the NAO aren't as effective in terms of predicting the upstream pattern in the warm season; in fact, strong -NAO's have often been part and parcel of blowtorch summers in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Interesting that none of the years on your list were +ENSO / oncoming El Nino's, which tend to produce a cooler signal across the East. We'll have to wait and see how the pattern evolves over the next couple months, as I'm not sold on a classic +ENSO / cool summer at this point. Could easily see how we're hot to perhaps very hot. Teleconnection indices such as the NAO aren't as effective in terms of predicting the upstream pattern in the warm season; in fact, strong -NAO's have often been part and parcel of blowtorch summers in the Northeast.+PNA doesn't have the same effect during the warm season either, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Cpc outlook was for above normal June-august thats at odds with the map you posted Anyhow I don't think anyone can say with any confidence how the summer will turn out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 +PNA doesn't have the same effect during the warm season either, correct? No . NW flow is cooler ( relative to averages ) for the area as long as there is no ridging on the EC . That is like saying a SE ridge should not produce warmer than normal temps in the winter months . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 No . NW flow is cooler ( relative to averages ) for the area as long as there is no ridging on the EC . That is like saying a SE ridge should not produce warmer than normal temps in the winter months . The funny thing is it will have the reverse effect along the coast in May once insulational heating overcomes the cooler air comming down from Canada. To clarify an offshore NW wind will produce highs in the 60s in May with sunny skies. With the flow off water that will still be in the 40s temps would be at least ten degrees cooler right on the coast with an onshore flow. So in the end it could wind up being warmer then it other wise would have been. Also remove the marine layer and it's clouds and it would actually help the water to warm up faster. So it's a big positive feed back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The funny thing is it will have the reverse effect along the coast in May once insulational heating overcomes the cooler air comming down from Canada. To clarify an offshore NW wind will produce highs in the 60s in May with sunny skies. With the flow off water that will still be in the 40s temps would be at least ten degrees cooler right on the coast with an onshore flow. So in the end it could wind up being warmer then it other wise would have been. Also remove the marine layer and it's clouds and it would actually help the water to warm up faster. So it's a big positive feed back You're awesome, keep posting. I'd advise against making early calls based on the March profile. Considering the unusual nature in which the record March was achieved. We will more than likely not have anything colder than a slightly above average summer. Mabye something like summer 2013. April 2013 had a mini-heatwave. I could see that happening for someone down the road. Like LBSurf said, southerly flow is no good this time of the year, and more often than not precludes hideous backdoor cold fronts like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Most summers have been above average in recent years, of course 2004 and 2009 are the exceptions so it seems that 1 degree higher than the 1981-2010 norms is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Most summers have been above average in recent years, of course 2004 and 2009 are the exceptions so it seems that 1 degree higher than the 1981-2010 norms is the new normal. This past summer only had 8 days of above 90 degrees at KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 This past summer only had 8 days of above 90 degrees at KNYC. LGA 90 degrees days...most and least since 1950... 48 in 2010...4 in 1972 34 in 1991...4 in 1978 33 in 2002...6 in 1967 31 in 1983...6 in 1982 30 in 1953...6 in 1996 30 in 2005...6 in 2014 29 in 1955...7 in 1960 28 in 2012...7 in 1975 27 in 1959...7 in 2004 26 in 1988...8 in 1950 26 in 1993...8 in 1985 26 in 1999...8 in 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Wow was 2010 hot. For me summer can go two ways, either we smash heat records or let the summer be relatively cool. I hate being stuck in the middle because conditions are still unpleasant but fall short of records. It's like in sports, either you're a top seed or all the way on the bottom scoring high draft picks. The middle is the dead zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 This past summer only had 8 days of above 90 degrees at KNYC. Yes I know but it averaged around the 30 year normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Yes I know but it averaged around the 30 year normal. High daily minimums played a huge role in that. We don't cool at night like we did before due to Urban Heat Island and AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The warm summer trend is more apparent at KPHL and KDCA, too lazy to run the numbers tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The 15 year average from 2000-2014 is +0.5 at NYC and +1.4 at LGA. 2000-2014 summer JJA temperature departures for NYC and LGA ............NYC..LGA 2000...-1.9....-0.8 2001...+0.3...+2.1 2002...+1.8...+2.0 2003....-0.6...+0.1 2004....-0.9...-0.2 2005...+2.9...+3.2 2006...+0.7...+2.6 2007...-0.8...+1.5 2008..+1.1...+2.1 2009...-2.3...-1.3 2010...+3.6..+4.3 2011...+1.7...+1.5 2012...+1.1...+2.1 2013...+1.3...+1.7 2014.....0.0....-0.4 Last year there were only 4 days over 90 degrees in NYC and 2 occured in meterological fall, September. The highest was 92 reached only once. I found it surprising that summer in NYC was right on norm average temperature wise, I had always assumed last summer was at the very least slightly below average. Give me last summer every year and I'm fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 last years first 90+ day was July 2nd...only eight for the season...the warmest 30 days was 76.6...2013 warmest 30 days was 81.7...The max temp was 92 on Sept. 2nd... total 90+ and 100+ days and annual max....year...90+...100+....max...warmest 30 days1930...17......1......102.....78.61931...21......0.......99......78.71932...15......0.......96......77.51933...21......2......102.....77.51934...15......1......101.....77.91935...10......0.......95......78.01936...26......2......106.....77.61937...22......2......100.....77.91938...15......0.......96......79.51939...24......0.......96......79.91940...17......0.......98......78.61941...29......0.......98......76.51942...12......0.......97......76.71943...27......0.......99......79.21944...37......3......102.....80.31945...18......0.......97......75.51946.....9......0.......94......76.31947.....9......0.......95......76.91948...13......3......103.....77.21949...29......2......102.....79.81950.....6......0.......95......75.01951.....7......0.......94......77.01952...24......1......100.....80.71953...32......4......102.....78.81954...17......2......100.....76.91955...25......3......100.....81.61956...11......0.......99......75.11957...21......2......101.....78.61958.....6......0.......93......76.41959...27......0.......97......79.81960.....5......0.......91......75.01961...29......0.......97......78.21962...18......0.......99......75.61963...16......0.......98......76.51964...23......0.......99......76.41965...15......0.......95......75.71966...35......4......103.....81.01967.....9......0.......96......76.31968...17......0.......98......77.81969...16......0.......97......77.51970...22......0.......94......78.91971...18......0.......96......78.01972...15......0.......94......77.51973...18......0.......98......78.51974...17......0.......95......77.31975.....8......0.......98......77.21976...15......0.......96......75.81977...23......3......104.....80.21978...11......0.......95......76.71979...18......0.......95......78.31980...32......2......102.....82.51981...16......0.......96......79.21982...11......0.......98......79.51983...36......0.......99......80.91984...10......0.......96......76.71985.....9......0.......95......76.51986...11......0.......98......76.31987...22......0.......97......78.41988...32......0.......99......81.11989...16......0.......96......75.81990...13......0.......95......78.11991...39......2......102.....79.01992.....9......0.......93......74.41993...39......3......102.....81.21994...19......0.......98......79.71995...29......1......102.....81.11996.....3......0.......96......74.91997...12......0.......97......77.81998.....8......0.......93......78.31999...27......2......101.....81.92000.....7......0.......93......72.72001...15......1......103.....78.72002...32......0.......98......80.32003.....8......0.......94......77.02004.....2......0.......91......74.82005...23......0.......99......81.82006.....8......0.......97......80.12007...10......0.......92......75.92008...12......0.......96......78.82009.....7......0.......92......76.82010...37......2......103.....81.82011...20......2......104.....81.02012...19......1......100.....79.5 2013...17......0........98.....81.7 2014.....8......0........92.....76.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 last years first 90+ day was July 2nd...only eight for the season...the warmest 30 days was 76.6...2013 warmest 30 days was 81.7...The max temp was 92 on Sept. 2nd... total 90+ and 100+ days and annual max.... year...90+...100+....max...warmest 30 days 1930...17......1......102.....78.6 1931...21......0.......99......78.7 1932...15......0.......96......77.5 1933...21......2......102.....77.5 1934...15......1......101.....77.9 1935...10......0.......95......78.0 1936...26......2......106.....77.6 1937...22......2......100.....77.9 1938...15......0.......96......79.5 1939...24......0.......96......79.9 1940...17......0.......98......78.6 1941...29......0.......98......76.5 1942...12......0.......97......76.7 1943...27......0.......99......79.2 1944...37......3......102.....80.3 1945...18......0.......97......75.5 1946.....9......0.......94......76.3 1947.....9......0.......95......76.9 1948...13......3......103.....77.2 1949...29......2......102.....79.8 1950.....6......0.......95......75.0 1951.....7......0.......94......77.0 1952...24......1......100.....80.7 1953...32......4......102.....78.8 1954...17......2......100.....76.9 1955...25......3......100.....81.6 1956...11......0.......99......75.1 1957...21......2......101.....78.6 1958.....6......0.......93......76.4 1959...27......0.......97......79.8 1960.....5......0.......91......75.0 1961...29......0.......97......78.2 1962...18......0.......99......75.6 1963...16......0.......98......76.5 1964...23......0.......99......76.4 1965...15......0.......95......75.7 1966...35......4......103.....81.0 1967.....9......0.......96......76.3 1968...17......0.......98......77.8 1969...16......0.......97......77.5 1970...22......0.......94......78.9 1971...18......0.......96......78.0 1972...15......0.......94......77.5 1973...18......0.......98......78.5 1974...17......0.......95......77.3 1975.....8......0.......98......77.2 1976...15......0.......96......75.8 1977...23......3......104.....80.2 1978...11......0.......95......76.7 1979...18......0.......95......78.3 1980...32......2......102.....82.5 1981...16......0.......96......79.2 1982...11......0.......98......79.5 1983...36......0.......99......80.9 1984...10......0.......96......76.7 1985.....9......0.......95......76.5 1986...11......0.......98......76.3 1987...22......0.......97......78.4 1988...32......0.......99......81.1 1989...16......0.......96......75.8 1990...13......0.......95......78.1 1991...39......2......102.....79.0 1992.....9......0.......93......74.4 1993...39......3......102.....81.2 1994...19......0.......98......79.7 1995...29......1......102.....81.1 1996.....3......0.......96......74.9 1997...12......0.......97......77.8 1998.....8......0.......93......78.3 1999...27......2......101.....81.9 2000.....7......0.......93......72.7 2001...15......1......103.....78.7 2002...32......0.......98......80.3 2003.....8......0.......94......77.0 2004.....2......0.......91......74.8 2005...23......0.......99......81.8 2006.....8......0.......97......80.1 2007...10......0.......92......75.9 2008...12......0.......96......78.8 2009.....7......0.......92......76.8 2010...37......2......103.....81.8 2011...20......2......104.....81.0 2012...19......1......100.....79.5 2013...17......0........98.....81.7 2014.....8......0........92.....76.6 First 90 degrees or above date... eight times since 1949 the first 90 came in April...six times it came as late as July... 2014...7/02 2013...5/30 2012...6/20 2011...6/01 2010...4/07 2009...4/26 2008...6/07 2007...5/25 2006...6/18 2005...6/08 2004...6/09 2003...6/24 2002...4/16 2001...5/02 2000...5/07 1999...6/07 1998...6/25 1997...6/21 1996...5/20 1995...6/18 1994...5/23 1993...5/11 1992...5/22 1991...4/08 1990...4/27 1989...6/01 1988...5/31 1987...5/10 1986...5/06 1985...7/14 1984...6/07 1983...6/12 1982...7/08 1981...6/16 1980...5/05 1979...5/09 1978...5/20 1977...4/12 1976...4/17 1975...5/24 1974...5/17 1973...6/09 1972...7/02 1971...6/07 1970...5/09 1969...5/29 1968...6/07 1967...6/10 1966...6/04 1965...5/04 1964...5/23 1963...6/24 1962...4/27 1961...6/02 1960...7/12 1959...5/20 1958...7/01 1957...6/15 1956...6/13 1955...5/05 1954...6/21 1953...5/11 1952...6/09 1951...5/16 1950...6/24 1949...5/05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The warm summer trend is more apparent at KPHL and KDCA, too lazy to run the numbers tho. Having lived in philly burbs before coming back home I could attest to the warming summers down there. North of Allentown makes a big difference! The warm summer trend is more apparent at KPHL and KDCA, too lazy to run the numbers tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acoolerclimate Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Funny, if you look at that list of summers in NYC, every 11 years it's over 80 degrees starting with 1944. 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 and then 2010. (Not that there aren't others). I wonder if that means 2021 will be be really hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 last years first 90+ day was July 2nd...only eight for the season...the warmest 30 days was 76.6...2013 warmest 30 days was 81.7...The max temp was 92 on Sept. 2nd... total 90+ and 100+ days and annual max.... year...90+...100+....max...warmest 30 days 1930...17......1......102.....78.6 1931...21......0.......99......78.7 1932...15......0.......96......77.5 1933...21......2......102.....77.5 1934...15......1......101.....77.9 1935...10......0.......95......78.0 1936...26......2......106.....77.6 1937...22......2......100.....77.9 1938...15......0.......96......79.5 1939...24......0.......96......79.9 1940...17......0.......98......78.6 1941...29......0.......98......76.5 1942...12......0.......97......76.7 1943...27......0.......99......79.2 1944...37......3......102.....80.3 1945...18......0.......97......75.5 1946.....9......0.......94......76.3 1947.....9......0.......95......76.9 1948...13......3......103.....77.2 1949...29......2......102.....79.8 1950.....6......0.......95......75.0 1951.....7......0.......94......77.0 1952...24......1......100.....80.7 1953...32......4......102.....78.8 1954...17......2......100.....76.9 1955...25......3......100.....81.6 1956...11......0.......99......75.1 1957...21......2......101.....78.6 1958.....6......0.......93......76.4 1959...27......0.......97......79.8 1960.....5......0.......91......75.0 1961...29......0.......97......78.2 1962...18......0.......99......75.6 1963...16......0.......98......76.5 1964...23......0.......99......76.4 1965...15......0.......95......75.7 1966...35......4......103.....81.0 1967.....9......0.......96......76.3 1968...17......0.......98......77.8 1969...16......0.......97......77.5 1970...22......0.......94......78.9 1971...18......0.......96......78.0 1972...15......0.......94......77.5 1973...18......0.......98......78.5 1974...17......0.......95......77.3 1975.....8......0.......98......77.2 1976...15......0.......96......75.8 1977...23......3......104.....80.2 1978...11......0.......95......76.7 1979...18......0.......95......78.3 1980...32......2......102.....82.5 1981...16......0.......96......79.2 1982...11......0.......98......79.5 1983...36......0.......99......80.9 1984...10......0.......96......76.7 1985.....9......0.......95......76.5 1986...11......0.......98......76.3 1987...22......0.......97......78.4 1988...32......0.......99......81.1 1989...16......0.......96......75.8 1990...13......0.......95......78.1 1991...39......2......102.....79.0 1992.....9......0.......93......74.4 1993...39......3......102.....81.2 1994...19......0.......98......79.7 1995...29......1......102.....81.1 1996.....3......0.......96......74.9 1997...12......0.......97......77.8 1998.....8......0.......93......78.3 1999...27......2......101.....81.9 2000.....7......0.......93......72.7 2001...15......1......103.....78.7 2002...32......0.......98......80.3 2003.....8......0.......94......77.0 2004.....2......0.......91......74.8 2005...23......0.......99......81.8 2006.....8......0.......97......80.1 2007...10......0.......92......75.9 2008...12......0.......96......78.8 2009.....7......0.......92......76.8 2010...37......2......103.....81.8 2011...20......2......104.....81.0 2012...19......1......100.....79.5 2013...17......0........98.....81.7 2014.....8......0........92.....76.6 Crazy to see that between 1958 and 1976, there was only one summer (1966) that featured 100-degree temps and that, in that same year, it happened a (tied) record of four times. Great stats as always, Unc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Crazy to see that between 1958 and 1976, there was only one summer (1966) that featured 100-degree temps and that, in that same year, it happened a (tied) record of four times. Great stats as always, Unc! I remember 66 well...there wasn't much ac around back then...many highways buckled in the heat around July 4th...between 1956 and 1976 only one year had a 30 day period averaging 80 or higher...that happened three times from 2010-2013...last years max was only 92...it hit 100 three years in a row from 2010-2012...the 1950's had the most years hitting 100 degrees...it hit 100 on 17 days from 1948 to 1957... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Very nice research bluewave. It's clear we have entered the beginning of a new long term -AMO phase in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 with the upcoming -AMO, I'd venture to say we see less Atlantic blocking in the winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 with the upcoming -AMO, I'd venture to say we see less Atlantic blocking in the winter as well.-AMO corresponds with +NAO and +AO. In addition -AMO corresponds to a lower number of hurricanes and less intense hurricanes that do form. It also means that cyclones/nor'easters are less intense due to the cooler waters off the east coast. Cooler north atlantic waters and cooler atlantic tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 -AMO corresponds with +NAO and +AO. In addition -AMO corresponds to a lower number of hurricanes and less intense hurricanes that do form. It also means that cyclones/nor'easters are less intense due to the cooler waters off the east coast. Cooler north atlantic waters and cooler atlantic tropics Makes sense. Major canes were rare in the 80's and early 90's (with Hugo, Andrew and Gloria being exceptions) and the big noreaster's we've seen since 2000 also less common. Going to be a boring stretch coming up if that's what we're going back to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 -AMO corresponds with +NAO and +AO. In addition -AMO corresponds to a lower number of hurricanes and less intense hurricanes that do form. It also means that cyclones/nor'easters are less intense due to the cooler waters off the east coast. Cooler north atlantic waters and cooler atlantic tropics I don't agree with your first sentence. The correlation is a fairly weak one at that. The following list isn't totally inclusive, but are examples of numerous winters with a -AMO and -NAO or -AO: 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1984-85 1986-87 1993-94 Many of which on that list were some of our coldest/snowiest winters on record. Broad-brush type relationships don't work out that well, e.g. +PDO = cold east, -PDO = warm east, as an example. There are some many variables and perturbations that we rarely see a 1:1 correlation b/t a specific index and our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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