Brick Tamland Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 I can't ever remember seeing forecasts fail so miserably so often in my life. Isn't technology supposed to improve accuracy? Go back and read the winter threads .... The same thing happened all last year with regards to the forecast for rain and storms here. I said it in the severe thread, but it seems just forecasting storms here is getting as difficult as forecasting snow, and they used to be a given here every spring and summer. So often last year on days we had severe storms in the forecast we didn't get anything, and on days where they didn't really focus on severe storms is when we got the strong and severe storms. It already happened again here last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Light rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 The same thing happened all last year with regards to the forecast for rain and storms here. I said it in the severe thread, but it seems just forecasting storms here is getting as difficult as forecasting snow, and they used to be a given here every spring and summer. So often last year on days we had severe storms in the forecast we didn't get anything, and on days where they didn't really focus on severe storms is when we got the strong and severe storms. It already happened again here last week.The models never handle gulf convection robbing the moisture transport correctly.If it isn't going to storm at least it should be sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 #Amateurhour in here. When are we going to stop complaining about the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 #Amateurhour in here. When are we going to stop complaining about the NWS?When they start getting forecasts right!Maybe instead of modelology, they do some meteorology ! Use some synoptic forecasting ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 I just hope we don't end up with 10 days of cloudy weather and little rain to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 There's a nice plume of moisture from TX to AL slowly moving NE. I don't know if it will make it this far north or if the convection will cut the moisture supply off, but it's nice to see. Still got some pollen that I would love to see get washed away and kept away for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 When they start getting forecasts right! Maybe instead of modelology, they do some meteorology ! Use some synoptic forecasting ! Thank you sir. Never go against a stubborn pattern. If its been dry, its gonna stay dry until the pattern changes. The same thing held true all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 The Big Wet 2015: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 It's going to take a 999 or lower MB low going through the Ohio Valley for areas east of the mountains to get any real rain and maybe change the large scale pattern. Even then, if CAD is in place ahead of the low, NC and SC could well stay dry. It will stay dry east of the mountains until the CAD pattern gets kicked out regardless of what any model says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 The Big Wet 2015: That's already wrong in south Al and miss. Just shows how bad the models are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 It's going to take a 999 or lower MB low going through the Ohio Valley for areas east of the mountains to get any real rain and maybe change the large scale pattern. Even then, if CAD is in place ahead of the low, NC and SC could well stay dry. It will stay dry east of the mountains until the CAD pattern gets kicked out regardless of what any model says. We need the gulf to be fully open and aimed squarely at the Carolinas. We need the troughs and the ridges to cooperate to make this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 The Big Wet 2015: Looks good for my neck of the woods. I've picked up just shy of 1/2 inch of rainfall since yesterday evening. It's been quite welcome. It's very muggy outside today, but the temp is relatively low. I like this CAD weather. I hope it sticks around all spring and summer long: cloudy days with showers here and there. Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 That's already wrong in south Al and miss. Just shows how bad the models are right now.Lol it's right. No one rain here for the next two days. It has to be right. It did miss the storms today though,but it's not like it rained in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 We finally got some decent rain around here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 We finally got some decent rain around here today. Want rain - my neck of the woods should be wet 3 out of 5 days from now until October (excepting sometimes May which can be dry/fire season) .... Rain has its issues. Frogs from Cuba, mosquitos, mold, horrific lightning at 4PM, lawn fungus .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Snowbird, Utah reporting 36" of snow in the past 24 hours. 25" since 5:00a.m. this morning ! I almost pulled the trigger and booked a flight yesterday morning for an evening departure, but after glancing at the NWS Cottonwoods Canyon forecast of 8-16", said, "Nah, I'll wait for a Two-Footer." Yes, that sound is me kicking myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Four years ago today. I will never forget how scary this day was. https://youtu.be/BTlxcuR5_TI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Liking this cool rain. We don't need some sun and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Four years ago today. I will never forget how scary this day was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Spring 2011 was very quiet around here in terms of severe weather. Spring 2008 was a different story, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 I almost got hit by an EF3 tornado March 3rd,2012 and then another tornado warning shortly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I was under tornado emergency south of Clayton, NC from that I-95 EF3 tornado on that day. Sanford/Raleigh EF3 ended up missing me by 10 miles to northwest and I-95 ended up missing by 10 miles to south. However, Sanford tornado barely missed my grandparents by a mile and I will never forget the damage I saw in Sanford when I visited my grandparents few days later. The funniest thing about the whole day was that I was supposed to visit NWS Raleigh until they called me and my mom off (as expected since high risk went up by that time). I visited NWS Raleigh a week later and they taught me how to use velocity radar to track down tornadoes by using Sanford cell as an example. Fitting that April 25-28 outbreak was the first time I looked at velocity radar in action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I almost got hit by an EF3 tornado March 3rd,2012 and then another tornado warning shortly after that.Dang, what might have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Spring 2011 was very quiet around here in terms of severe weather. Spring 2008 was a different story, however. Wasn't quiet here though. Had a few Tornadoes nearby plus a Derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Absolutely can't wait for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Here's a day I'll never forget! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Here's a day I'll never forget! Mack, That looks like the Euro way overdone clown map from the Feb. of 2014 storm. Euro clown maps should be banned until they're fixed imo. They don't even reflect what their underlying model runs are actually predicting. They spread like wildfire on Twitter and facebook, thus helping to spread the horribly inflated snow expectations for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Mack, That looks like the Euro way overdone clown map from the Feb. of 2014 storm. Euro clown maps should be banned until they're fixed imo. They don't even reflect what their underlying model runs are actually predicting. They spread like wildfire on Twitter and facebook, thus helping to spread the horribly inflated snow expectations for that storm. You are correct! I have it saved for posterity, and bring it up from time to time, it helps with the healing! ! That was my first real interaction/ heartbreak with the Euro clown map, and it was a good lesson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Dang, what might have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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