downeastnc Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Sitting out front of the Pitt County Courthouse waiting to fulfill my civic duty by sitting around on jury duty.....upside is work pays me full rate for the week. Hopefully we have short days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 No rain today. Tired of this BS. Its was supposed to rain all last week and nothing and now this week is starting the same way. Look at that radar. We're supposed to get it for the next week. If I could ship it all to you I would. My construction project has been nothing but a giant rain delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Looks like this week might turn out like last week. The rain isn't getting here again.... I'm glad I made the decision to water my trees yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 NAM, RGEM, and GFS already cutting way back on totals at 12z. No surprise there. I bet we struggle to get half inch totals. These 2-4" totals models show almost never happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 NAM, RGEM, and GFS already cutting way back on totals at 12z. No surprise there. I bet we struggle to get half inch totals. These 2-4" totals models show almost never happens here. NAM is still very juiced up: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_precip_p60.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p60&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150413+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 GFS not as good: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_084_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150413+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 NAM is still very juiced up: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_precip_p60.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p60&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150413+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 GFS not as good: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_084_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150413+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Hug the NAM! Like it was showing snow!I haven't had an inch of rain in an event since early march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Hug the NAM! Like it was showing snow! I haven't had an inch of rain in an event since early march I'm being short sighted, but give me a half inch of rain to just get this pollen out of the air. Cut the grass yesterday and thought I was going to choke to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 TWC went from 80% this morning down to 20% now. Unbelievable, last week repeating itself, only cooler. Forecasting continues to be an absolute joke this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 Lol we have heavy thunderstorm in the forecast from TWC and the NWS and both are at 90%. I don't see anything on radar. WPC is showing a widespread 5 inches of rain for almost all of the SE. Not sure what they are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 These models are useless that's for sure. And we will not get widespread rain in the Carolinas until we stop getting CAD. The same basic pattern we have had since Christmas keeps marching right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Seems like FL wet season has an early start? Afternoon SB rain/storms with day 3 underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 These models are useless that's for sure. And we will not get widespread rain in the Carolinas until we stop getting CAD. The same basic pattern we have had since Christmas keeps marching right on. Here's something to trust in; 12z GFS at day 15: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=360&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150413+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I can really pick the day for getting a new roof on my house. Something tells me there might be a delay. Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High near 72. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I'm gonna wing it and guess this is another case of gulf convection robbing us. We'll see if that continues tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The ridge is to strong once again, and the main storm track will follow the stationary front to the west. Its been happening all spring, and we end up with north easterly winds cooling us down and making us more stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The ridge is to strong once again, and the main storm track will follow the stationary front to the west. Its been happening all spring, and we end up with north easterly winds cooling us down and making us more stable. Yep until we get rid of this CAD crap it will stay fairly dry over most of NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I can't ever remember seeing forecasts fail so miserably so often in my life. Isn't technology supposed to improve accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Some of these local mets just baffle me. Ben Tanner on WIS just showed his animated forecast for tomorrow and there was literally no rain, just clouds. Then on one forecast page he shows 80% chance of rain tomorrow, and on the 7 day he shows 70% tomorrow. I can't even handle it. What I did find interesting is the week long precipitation model is down to .6" for Columbia. You could literally get.1-.15 a day and end up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Raleigh just dropped my forecast from 1 to 2 inches of rain down to 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch for tomorrow. So basically it is back to what it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I can't ever remember seeing forecasts fail so miserably so often in my life. Isn't technology supposed to improve accuracy? Go back and read the winter threads .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Some of these local mets just baffle me. Ben Tanner on WIS just showed his animated forecast for tomorrow and there was literally no rain, just clouds. Then on one forecast page he shows 80% chance of rain tomorrow, and on the 7 day he shows 70% tomorrow. I can't even handle it. What I did find interesting is the week long precipitation model is down to .6" for Columbia. You could literally get.1-.15 a day and end up with that. His animated map will probably be right. And the .60 for the week may be too high. We HAVE to get rid of the CAD pattern we are in to get rain in the Carolinas and that isnt happening anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 His animated map will probably be right. And the .60 for the week may be too high. We HAVE to get rid of the CAD pattern we are in to get rain in the Carolinas and that isnt happening anytime soon. Really sucks to live on the wrong side of the mountains...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Go back and read the winter threads .... Unfortunately i have read those. I feel we are going backwards as the technology "improves". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 His animated map will probably be right. And the .60 for the week may be too high. We HAVE to get rid of the CAD pattern we are in to get rain in the Carolinas and that isnt happening anytime soon. Im guessing the problem is the front was supposed to head back north and east, but the CAD is preventing that. We NEED that SW flow from the gulf to bring appreciable rains to the Carolinas and Georgia. Funny that Wxsouth is really hyping the next 10 days being so soggy. His forecast is looking really shaky at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Im guessing the problem is the front was supposed to head back north and east, but the CAD is preventing that. We NEED that SW flow from the gulf to bring appreciable rains to the Carolinas and Georgia. Funny that Wxsouth is really hyping the next 10 days being so soggy. His forecast is looking really shaky at the moment. Kind of like alot of his winter storm forecasts! Last I heard today was rain all day, I've picked up .006 from all the deluges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Kind of like alot of his winter storm forecasts! Last I heard today was rain all day, I've picked up .006 from all the deluges! More than most I would presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 More than most I would presume. I actually got .01 for the day. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Seems like FL wet season has an early start? Afternoon SB rain/storms with day 3 underway. Sure seems like that. Today would be day four assuming we get anyway rain with collison of the ECSB and WCSB. Really looking at it the next week or better will have a chance of pop up storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Well the GSP weather office canceled the flood watch as I knew they would and are now saying isolated showers at best. They had no business issuing that watch anyway, despite what the models were showing. They need to forecast by using only the radar until the models ever improve. The models may be decent on temps, but are useless on precip right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Well the GSP weather office canceled the flood watch as I knew they would and are now saying isolated showers at best. They had no business issuing that watch anyway, despite what the models were showing. They need to forecast by using only the radar until the models ever improve. The models may be decent on temps, but are useless on precip right now.I think they use the radar method to predict snow, but that doesn't work out too well either! What does it take to get A solid 2-3 inch widespread rain event around here? Hopefully not a tropical storm or hurricane remnant, cause this year is going to be a dud Atlantic hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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