metalicwx366 Posted April 11, 2015 Author Share Posted April 11, 2015 Unbelievable how bad our luck is. Just wow. Nothing else to say after today. Congrats Blackshear on the 2-3 inches of rain. 0.00 here. It was so dark and ominous earlier with intense lightning and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 0.00" 0.01" accum of pine pollen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 0.00" 0.01" accum of pine pollen. I've had more pollen accumulation in the last 3 days, than total snow accumulation all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 The highest chance of severe weather in the entire Southeast was, "slight". The forecast wasn't overdone, expectations were. I would say the forecast was overdone yesterday. Most local forecasters had us with between an 80-90% chance of rain and we saw nothing. In fact there were barely any storms that afternoon, a few showers and storms popped up then dissipated. It definitely was a bust as far as coverage goes and intensity, not even a single warning in NC from the few afternoon storms that managed to pop up. Coverage just wasn't there like it was forecast to be which in my opinion is a bust. We had more storms and severe the previous day under a marginal threat and essentially nothing form under a slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 "Woke last to the sound of thunder. How far off I sat and wondered." Then Boom, it was right on top of me. Got .47" out of that early morning storm. Currently it is beautiful out there. temp is 71, dew point 54. Windows are open and fresh air pouring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 I would say the forecast was overdone yesterday. Most local forecasters had us with between an 80-90% chance of rain and we saw nothing. In fact there were barely any storms that afternoon, a few showers and storms popped up then dissipated. It definitely was a bust as far as coverage goes and intensity, not even a single warning in NC from the few afternoon storms that managed to pop up. Coverage just wasn't there like it was forecast to be which in my opinion is a bust. We had more storms and severe the previous day under a marginal threat and essentially nothing form under a slight. My comment referred to the SPC. What local TV mets do with it is an entirely different matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 11, 2015 Author Share Posted April 11, 2015 79 and cloudy. It's not going to rain today. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 They claim 100% chance of rain tomorrow. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 My comment referred to the SPC. What local TV mets do with it is an entirely different matter. Considering we had no warned storms in NC and only one or two in VA and one or two in SC I hardly think we met the criteria for a slight risk, unless they changed it this year with the new categories? I know in prior years it would not have met the criteria for a slight risk and just goes to show the unpredictability of weather even at short ranges. The NAM and GFS all showed far more activity than happened as did the NWS Raleigh and the HPC. I still think it was a bust considering what all the main agencies had forecast and imo did not meet the criteria defined by the SPC for slight risk since there were so few severe storms and none in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 0.00. So much for an 80% chance. Let's try again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Comfortable and dry here today Currently at 72, dew point 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Considering we had no warned storms in NC and only one or two in VA and one or two in SC I hardly think we met the criteria for a slight risk, unless they changed it this year with the new categories? I know in prior years it would not have met the criteria for a slight risk and just goes to show the unpredictability of weather even at short ranges. The NAM and GFS all showed far more activity than happened as did the NWS Raleigh and the HPC. I still think it was a bust considering what all the main agencies had forecast and imo did not meet the criteria defined by the SPC for slight risk since there were so few severe storms and none in NC. No bust here. I simply kept one eye open and enjoyed my day outside because the risk was, "slight". slight adjective 1. small in degree; inconsiderable. "a slight increase" synonyms: small, modest, tiny, minute, inappreciable, negligible, insignificant, minimal, remote, slim, faint, razor-thin; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 No bust here. I simply kept one eye open and enjoyed my day outside because the risk was, "slight". slight adjective 1. small in degree; inconsiderable. "a slight increase" synonyms: small, modest, tiny, minute, inappreciable, negligible, insignificant, minimal, remote, slim, faint, razor-thin; SPC defines as the following: 2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. We failed to see either an organized area of storms form at all, southern GA and areas around them verified quite nicely but further north where the supposed greatest threat was we saw a few showers, nothing even remotely organized or even close to severe limits. I do agree that slight risks usually aren't super active but to see essentially no convection in a slight risk is quite unusual, from my experience That's why I say it's a bust, with model data and national agencies even thinking it would be more widespread. I guess we can agree to disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 SPC defines as the following: 2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. We failed to see either an organized area of storms form at all, southern GA and areas around them verified quite nicely but further north where the supposed greatest threat was we saw a few showers, nothing even remotely organized or even close to severe limits. I do agree that slight risks usually aren't super active but to see essentially no convection in a slight risk is quite unusual, from my experience That's why I say it's a bust, with model data and national agencies even thinking it would be more widespread. I guess we can agree to disagree Yep, we can. Actually our disagreement is caused more by our approach than anything else. You, and many on here, tend to take the statistical approach to a forecast. I moved from that years ago and now lean fairly heavily toward the practical approach. While I still am interested in stats, I am most interested in how the weather will affect my plans. So I take the "slight risk" to mean, that for any given spot, the risk is minimal and, while being aware of the possibility of a significant storm, not worth changing any plans for the day. So, for me, the forecast verified nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Yep, we can. Actually our disagreement is caused more by our approach than anything else. You, and many on here, tend to take the statistical approach to a forecast. I moved from that years ago and now lean fairly heavily toward the practical approach. While I still am interested in stats, I am most interested in how the weather will affect my plans. So I take the "slight risk" to mean, that for any given spot, the risk is minimal and, while being aware of the possibility of a significant storm, not worth changing any plans for the day. So, for me, the forecast verified nicely. What ??? Stats and analogs don't produce results?? What about this past blockbuster winter!?? I have a 90% chance of rain the next 2days, I will bet on the 10% occurring ! That's a very safe bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 Heavy rain. We actually are doing good today. I'm not home that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I'm just going to stick this in here for funsies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Yep, we can. Actually our disagreement is caused more by our approach than anything else. You, and many on here, tend to take the statistical approach to a forecast. I moved from that years ago and now lean fairly heavily toward the practical approach. While I still am interested in stats, I am most interested in how the weather will affect my plans. So I take the "slight risk" to mean, that for any given spot, the risk is minimal and, while being aware of the possibility of a significant storm, not worth changing any plans for the day. So, for me, the forecast verified nicely. Nothing wrong with that approach at all! That's what makes weather fun and interesting, the unpredictable nature of it and difficulty in forecasting. At times it can be quite frustrating but then rewarding when things work out as forecast. I found it odd that the days we weren't forecast to see severe weather, both Wednesday and Thursday, we had heavy rain and severe storms both time with golfball size hail and then Friday, the day with the best chance, we see nothing not even sprinkles. The difficult part is figuring out why those two days were so active with weak dynamics while Friday had excellent dynamics with anemic results. Looks like a wet and rainy week ahead for most, at least it will wash the pollen away briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 1.31 today. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 0.00" 0.01" pollen total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Was in Castleton all weekend. Came back to a full pond. 4+ inches since Thursday. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Dry and polleny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Dry and polleny Closing in on an inch of pollen and it's still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Rain shield activated on the SC GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 It's flooding here! Somebody shut of the spigot ! All this widespread rain needs to stop ! Currently 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Let me introduce you to the Simpsonville split! Living all day everyday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Let me introduce you to the Simpsonville split! Living all day everyday ! Scarlett's mam(maries)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Heavy rain right now I've been getting lucky the last couple weeks. My luck usually runs out right around July and I go on a run of getting fringed for 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Scarlett's mam(maries)?It's always good to talk to mammaries! 67 and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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