LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 SPC changed a lot of the Marginal area to Slight. Looks like some strong downbursts are possible with Large damaging hail. First legit SE threat of the severe weather season!!!! No NC isn't in the area so I don't expect a very active thread but we do have posters in these areas including the ATL metro. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA. MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS AXIS IS ALSO WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES...RESULTING IN A LONG...NARROW REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...OK/NORTH TX... STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OK AND NORTH TX...WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT...DESPITE WEAK FORCING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING FINALLY ELIMINATES THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE. A SUBTLE FEATURE OVER EASTERN CO IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONGEAL ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ...AR TO GA... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AR WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY...WHERE A RATHER WEAK CAP AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK CORRIDOR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I hope we get a nice thunderstorm today. March has been a dead lamb in that department this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1247 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL...CNTRL/SRN GACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 311747Z - 311945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOONFROM CNTRL AL INTO CNTRL/SRN GA. A FEW CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE OUT OFTHIS ACTIVITY...POSING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS ANDHAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OFTOWERING CU STRETCHING FROM BHM SEWD TO LGC...WITH A COUPLELIGHTNING STRIKES MORE RECENTLY NOTED. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVEINITIATION IS NOT READILY APPARENT...AS SFC OBS SHOW WEAK/NEARLYUNIFORM WLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOW-MIDLEVELPERTURBATION WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND WAS QUICKLY MOVINGEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPTICKIN CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WITH LITTLE TO NO CINHPRESENT...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEPMIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THE TRENDFOR INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW /WEAK IN THE LOW-LEVELS/ SUGGEST THATA FEW CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND COULD POSE ATHREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL. PRIMARYUNCERTAINTIES WILL REMAIN LACK OF OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR TSTMDEVELOPMENT...AS WELL AS THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY ACCOMPANYINGTHREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...ROGERS/HART.. 03/31/2015ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LAT...LON 31988693 32678842 34198817 34318773 34018606 3314829232628212 31578228 31348292 31418507 31758620 31988693 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL...CNTRL/SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 311747Z - 311945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL AL INTO CNTRL/SRN GA. A FEW CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY...POSING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF TOWERING CU STRETCHING FROM BHM SEWD TO LGC...WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES MORE RECENTLY NOTED. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT READILY APPARENT...AS SFC OBS SHOW WEAK/NEARLY UNIFORM WLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOW-MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND WAS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPTICK IN CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH PRESENT...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THE TREND FOR INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW /WEAK IN THE LOW-LEVELS/ SUGGEST THAT A FEW CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES WILL REMAIN LACK OF OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL AS THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY ACCOMPANYING THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..ROGERS/HART.. 03/31/2015 ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31988693 32678842 34198817 34318773 34018606 33148292 32628212 31578228 31348292 31418507 31758620 31988693 Yep first watch and probably warnings on tap for us. I am going to get the popcorn for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Okay, I have to ask. Considering the fact that people have lost their lives in severe storms and tornadoes, how can anyone hope for such severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Okay, I have to ask. Considering the fact that people have lost their lives in severe storms and tornadoes, how can anyone hope for such severe weather?It's going to happen , whether we wish for it or not, some people just enjoy watching and tracking the storms. Kind of like snow, it causes wrecks and people die, but I love snow/winter storms like a 5 year old does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Okay, I have to ask. Considering the fact that people have lost their lives in severe storms and tornadoes, how can anyone hope for such severe weather? This comes up every year with Severe and Hurricanes. I can wish all I want, it isn't going to make a storm or hurricane change anything. Storms and hurricanes are going to do what they are going to do. I just hope I'm lucky enough to document the carnage when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Regarding the severe wx threat for ATL, the 12Z GFS and Euro are miles apart. From ATL north into the N burbs: whereas the GFS has a solid 0.25" of qpf averaged out over that area, the Euro only has about 0.02". So, whereas the GFS is implying good coverage, the Euro is implying only very isolated at most for heavy thunderstorms. It will be interesting to see which one verifies more closely. On the side of the Euro are the wind flow at 500 mb (an often dry WNW flow) and the sfc (usually pretty dry W flow) as well as its higher quality overall. One can get isolated severe with those windflows but widespread storms with them are not easy to get. Dewpoints are down close to 50. The Euro and the NWS severe thunderstorm map both imply that the bulk of the activity will be SW of the city. We'll see. Will the GFS score a coup or will the Euro show it who is King? I assume that the shorter term models would have the best handle but the NAM among others generally sucks IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Severe storms erupting in the watch area, I think some of the storms in N. Alabama are going to break containment and head towards the metro ATL area. regardless we have an active day across the SE. People are being impacted as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Descrete cells popping up all over the watch area as Marietta stated. Watch the tor warned cell west of Gunnison, MS headed towards Benoit, MS. Broad circulation with a good bit of dust being lifted into the inflow notch per CC. This one could organize and be pretty potent. Anyone got a mesoscale shot of 1-3km shear and one of most unsable cape? Would love to see it since I am mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Cell popping to the south of the tor warned cell in MS will rob convection a bit blocking a part of the inflow and cooling the atmosphere a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Descrete cells popping up all over the watch area as Marietta stated. Watch the tor warned cell west of Gunnison, MS headed towards Benoit, MS. Broad circulation with a good bit of dust being lifted into the inflow notch per CC. This one could organize and be pretty potent. Anyone got a mesoscale shot of 1-3km shear and one of most unsable cape? Would love to see it since I am mobile. had trouble finding 1-3km shear.. any others you want to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 had trouble finding 1-3km shear.. any others you want to see? Thanks man that is perfect! GA looks very primed for descrete's to pop anytime. 3000 j/kg plus cape in S GA. 45 kt shear areas popping all over the SE. We have a good recipe for severe stoms to manifest, lets see if dewpoints and surface winds ingnite the gasoline soon! Once again like marietta said, no one wishes for severe but there is nothing wrong with covering and discussing the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 WOW - there are like 15 active WARNINGS right now. Awesome severe weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Lots of hailers so far, tornado risk seems limited....but big hail lots of 2-3" hail reports.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 West Central GA and the South ATL Metro are getting ROCKED. I missed out by about 25 miles but I love seeing the thunderboomers in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 As of now, it looks like the King is beating the GFS like a rented mule for the city of Atlanta north into the northern burbs. The GFS had a whopping 0.25" of qpf averaged out over that area for the period 2-8PM whereas the King only had about 0.02" with the bulk of metro activity just W and S of the city. We're not yet to 8 PM but the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Thanks man that is perfect! GA looks very primed for descrete's to pop anytime. 3000 j/kg plus cape in S GA. 45 kt shear areas popping all over the SE. We have a good recipe for severe stoms to manifest, lets see if dewpoints and surface winds ingnite the gasoline soon! Once again like marietta said, no one wishes for severe but there is nothing wrong with covering and discussing the possibility.Clearly that didn't do anything because nothing even popped up in S GA.This area sucks at everything. The GFS sucks.Euro ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Clearly that didn't do anything because nothing even popped up in S GA.This area sucks at everything. The GFS sucks.Euro ftw.Yep sometimes thats how the cookie crumbles. The ingredients were there but I assume there was an inversion cap that was able to contain the energy present & not allow parcels to reach their LFC (level of free convection). We have come a long way predicting severe weather but it still isn't an exact science. This was never much of a tornado theat but I am surpised that you completely missed out. I understand your pain though to an extent. Almost every afternoon in WNC I can look SW toward Brevard, NC and spot a nice thunderhead, only to watch it rain itself out over that area with little movement. There are areas in WNC that average 80" plus of rain a year, whereas Dry Ridge in the northern part of Buncombe Co. only sees around 20" of rain a year. I know this is due to the mountains and thier effect, but I still understand how you feel and experience it myself quite often. I will be driving up 95 tomorrow on my way home from FL so I would expect a pour down because thats how my luck works haha. Oh well, on to the next severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yep sometimes thats how the cookie crumbles. The ingredients were there but I assume there was an inversion cap that was able to contain the energy present & not allow parcels to reach their LFC (level of free convection). We have come a long way predicting severe weather but it still isn't an exact science. This was never much of a tornado theat but I am surpised that you completely missed out. I understand your pain though to an extent. Almost every afternoon in WNC I can look SW toward Brevard, NC and spot a nice thunderhead, only to watch it rain itself out over that area with little movement. There are areas in WNC that average 80" plus of rain a year, whereas Dry Ridge in the northern part of Buncombe Co. only sees around 20" of rain a year. I know this is due to the mountains and thier effect, but I still understand how you feel and experience it myself quite often. I will be driving up 95 tomorrow on my way home from FL so I would expect a pour down because thats how my luck works haha. Oh well, on to the next severe event.Haha yeah. SPC has actually extended the slight risk to include our area. They just issued a meso discussion talking about the threat for hail. I say 0.1% chance of actually seeing rain fall out the sky. Oh well, we got tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Haha yeah. SPC has actually extended the slight risk to included our area. They just issued a meso discussion talking about the threat for hail. I say 0.1% chance of actually seeing rain fall out the sky. Oh well, we got tomorrow!Yeah, let me know how that works out for you tomorrow !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah, let me know how that works out for you tomorrow !?You already know... Nasty line of storms to the N. Going to bypass us to the NE if it stays intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Haha yeah. SPC has actually extended the slight risk to include our area. They just issued a meso discussion talking about the threat for hail. I say 0.1% chance of actually seeing rain fall out the sky. Oh well, we got tomorrow! Yeah got a nice outflow boundary that you can see on radar heading due south off the line of storms to your north. I hope you get a nice storm but it might just do the Waycross shuffle and develop just after it passes you by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 1, 2015 Author Share Posted April 1, 2015 I've been watching lightning and hearing thunder for the past several hours but not more than a few showers hitting the ground here. Areas like peachtree city have been getting trained by heavy and severe storms for hours now. Very impressive imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 We've had close to an inch of rain, lots of hail and lightning/thunder today. I wasn't expecting this much activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah got a nice outflow boundary that you can see on radar heading due south off the line of storms to your north. I hope you get a nice storm but it might just do the Waycross shuffle and develop just after it passes you by.Or just dissipate as it enters the deathzone of storms in the SE. NWS put thunderstorms in the forecast. Should have left it as it was Lol. At least we will get some 25-35mph gusts with the outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 In SAV, we have been experiencing a pretty decent thunderstorm with a couple of strong gusts and light to moderate rain over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 1, 2015 Author Share Posted April 1, 2015 Rain, thunder, and lightning continue.... What a day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Although the GFS failed miserably vs. the King through the 2-8 PM period, the GFS has comeback to beat the King tonight due to the most rainfall yet by far for ATL and into some of the N burbs. Also, SAV has been getting pretty good rains. The King had virtually nothing for those areas overnight. What a turnaround for the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Here is a tweet from NWS. I was look at the CAPE plumes and it showed a couple of models over 1000. The median was 300 or so for this afternoon at GMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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