CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah definitely in my top 2 or 3 storms that I wish I could have a time machine and go back and experience. On the other hand, I was very fortunate to experience the brunt of two other storms that I probably shouldn't have (just really good luck). 2/5/01 and 12/9/05. I still laugh at the account you gave in 12/9/05 with bolts hitting the Needham towers and the guy trying to wipe his windshield off from 6"/hr snow..looking up waiting to be hit by a CG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I still laugh at the account you gave in 12/9/05 with bolts hitting the Needham towers and the guy trying to wipe his windshield off from 6"/hr snow..looking up waiting to be hit by a CG. yeah...like he was going anywhere. Everytime a bolt would hit close he would look up at the sky as if the book of revelation was coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Really the only good one anyone missed here was 1888. All other big ones have been witnessed by one or more members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 yeah...like he was going anywhere. Everytime a bolt would hit close he would look up at the sky as if the book of revelation was coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 This was the super paste storm on Long Island. We missed out on some of the better rates but managed to get between 3-6" of the sloppiest paste I have seen to this date. It was stuck to absolutly everything pushed sideways by strong winds. You couldn't read signs or see stop lights. It was almost like rime ice. I was also in high school and will never forget the ultimate paste storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Every other scan from 18z on 3/31 to 18z on 4/1.1997Apr1.gif[/quoteThanks for this! Vies with Jan 2005 for my top. I too wish I had a time machine to re-experience this with the model forecast tools and digital photography we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Part of the fun was the bust with this storm. It would be fun to weenie out with models, but models are good and you'd probably lose the surprise factor which kind of stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Part of the fun was the bust with this storm. It would be fun to weenie out with models, but models are good and you'd probably lose the surprise factor which kind of stinks. I feel like most big ones though bust on the positive side...firehose storm was one of them. I was way more bullish than 99% of agencies and I was predicting 9-13" for ORH county.... 20"+ later... Even January of this year was more widespread (at least ORH eastward) with 30" than anyone thought....well maybe except NWS, they were pimping that one. Feb 2013 was a big positive bust in CT...I know most were excepting what they got in E MA/RI, but CT wasn't supposed to get that wide swath of 30"+. I do agree obviously that the level of bust isn't as high as it used to be, but the big ones usually offer surprises. February 2nd this year was actually probably the best one...well maybe that and Feb 7-9, lol...I don't think anyone would have predicted 20-25" for BOS metro before Feb 7-9....the general feeling was a long drawn-out 10-15" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 Part of the fun was the bust with this storm. It would be fun to weenie out with models, but models are good and you'd probably lose the surprise factor which kind of stinks.I couldn't agree with you more regarding the mystique that weather had when we were young being the main element that hooked me. I still think I'd develop interest today, though because of the advent of forums, so much more information being available, etc. Contemporary weather offers so much more to become immersed in, which we do. It was just meant to be, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I feel like most big ones though bust on the positive side...firehose storm was one of them. I was way more bullish than 99% of agencies and I was predicting 9-13" for ORH county.... 20"+ later... Even January of this year was more widespread (at least ORH eastward) with 30" than anyone thought....well maybe except NWS, they were pimping that one. Feb 2013 was a big positive bust in CT...I know most were excepting what they got in E MA/RI, but CT wasn't supposed to get that wide swath of 30"+. I do agree obviously that the level of bust isn't as high as it used to be, but the big ones usually offer surprises. February 2nd this year was actually probably the best one...well maybe that and Feb 7-9, lol...I don't think anyone would have predicted 20-25" for BOS metro before Feb 7-9....the general feeling was a long drawn-out 10-15" storm. Yeah true, the good ones usually do have a nice bust on the + side with them. I guess I mean more of the higher echelon of those busts. Your 4/1/97, 12/23/97...even ones on a smaller scale that we had...4-8" that sometimes came out of nowhere. Those always mystified me. We do get those from time to time, but tougher to do thanks to models being much better than say 15-20 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I feel like most big ones though bust on the positive side...firehose storm was one of them. I was way more bullish than 99% of agencies and I was predicting 9-13" for ORH county.... 20"+ later... Even January of this year was more widespread (at least ORH eastward) with 30" than anyone thought....well maybe except NWS, they were pimping that one. Feb 2013 was a big positive bust in CT...I know most were excepting what they got in E MA/RI, but CT wasn't supposed to get that wide swath of 30"+. I do agree obviously that the level of bust isn't as high as it used to be, but the big ones usually offer surprises. February 2nd this year was actually probably the best one...well maybe that and Feb 7-9, lol...I don't think anyone would have predicted 20-25" for BOS metro before Feb 7-9....the general feeling was a long drawn-out 10-15" storm. I'm not sure what happened during the Feb 9th event, It seemed like the first 2/3 of the storm underperformed, and the last batch over performed, or maybe I was just misreading the model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 On a side note, 3 of the 4 bigger storms ended up doing better than I thought say 24 hrs out. Although. I had a sneaky suspicion I would do well in the long duration Feb event. I posted liking my location for that one the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I'm not sure what happened during the Feb 9th event, It seemed like the first 2/3 of the storm underperformed, and the last batch over performed, or maybe I was just misreading the model outputs. That last batch that Monday morning went gangbusters...it was always predicted to be the heaviest part of the storm, but not to the degree that occurred. The Sunday morning snows were pretty good too before the lull...Sat evening/night was kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Every other scan from 18z on 3/31 to 18z on 4/1. 1997Apr1.gif That is fascinating. Everytime it looks like it may be moving out it cranks back up over eastern Mass, particularly BOS area and suburbs. Great radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I couldn't agree with you more regarding the mystique that weather had when we were young being the main element that hooked me. I still think I'd develop interest today, though because of the advent of forums, so much more information being available, etc. Contemporary weather offers so much more to become immersed in, which we do. It was just meant to be, regardless. That's why I love this area...can still get some really good surprise snowstorms. Though with the increase in mesoscale models, even that localized surprise snow is starting to wane. But always nice when 1-3" forecast turns into 6-12" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The real good storms always bust on the positive side....mostly because people don't forecast huge amounts of snow even when the facts are on the table. Unless you are Kevin or OKX/BOX/GYX this winter, most won't throw out 24-36" forecasts like candy...as it seemed in the past that even if models were spitting out 2-4" of QPF you'd still get a 1-2 foot forecast from NWS with locally higher amounts. Almost like forecasts were capped at 2 feet (18-24" range used to be the sort of NWS ceiling in the northeast), but this year they broke that and threw out 24-36" like candy. Really hard to get positive busts with 24-36" forecasts haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I feel like most big ones though bust on the positive side...firehose storm was one of them. I was way more bullish than 99% of agencies and I was predicting 9-13" for ORH county.... 20"+ later... Even January of this year was more widespread (at least ORH eastward) with 30" than anyone thought....well maybe except NWS, they were pimping that one. Feb 2013 was a big positive bust in CT...I know most were excepting what they got in E MA/RI, but CT wasn't supposed to get that wide swath of 30"+. I do agree obviously that the level of bust isn't as high as it used to be, but the big ones usually offer surprises. February 2nd this year was actually probably the best one...well maybe that and Feb 7-9, lol...I don't think anyone would have predicted 20-25" for BOS metro before Feb 7-9....the general feeling was a long drawn-out 10-15" storm. I was pretty confident on feb 13 we would miss the deformation zone. That morning I thought it was going to setup across E Mass and RI given forecasted mid level low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I was pretty confident on feb 13 we would miss the deformation zone. That morning I thought it was going to setup across E Mass and RI given forecasted mid level low tracks. I was pretty confident on feb 13 we would miss the deformation zone. That morning I thought it was going to setup across E Mass and RI given forecasted mid level low tracks. You went from toaster bath to elation in 3 hrs...lol. What an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 You went from toaster bath to elation in 3 hrs...lol. What an awesome storm. Yeah that morning when I got to work I was convinced I wouldn't get 15"... Especially after the GFS came out. Still seems sort of funny to me that the monster band set up so far west given the mid level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Yeah that morning when I got to work I was convinced I wouldn't get 15"... Especially after the GFS came out. Still seems sort of funny to me that the monster band set up so far west given the mid level features. Yeah I know...although I recall the NAM(?) destroying LI with what seemed to be the same kind of setup that smoked LI and up into CT...but it didn't quite nail CT with the band. I guess it did hint at it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Yeah I know...although I recall the NAM(?) destroying LI with what seemed to be the same kind of setup that smoked LI and up into CT...but it didn't quite nail CT with the band. I guess it did hint at it though. PF mentioned it last night but over the years lots of mets have trouble believing the highly anamalous outputs and are reluctant to go big, Oct 11 being another one. NWS Boston went big and stuck by its guns this year under withering doubters and were proved right . It takes a little gumption to go out on a limb sometimes. Being conservative usually is more correct but the times when its needed to be aggressive are usually the times when the impacts are the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 PF mentioned it last night but over the years lots of mets have trouble believing the highly anamalous outputs and are reluctant to go big, Oct 11 being another one. NWS Boston went big and stuck by its guns this year under withering doubters and were proved right . It takes a little gumption to go out on a limb sometimes. Being conservative usually is more correct but the times when its needed to be aggressive are usually the times when the impacts are the greatest. Oct 2011 was obvious. Tho clearly not to everyone as a lot of TV mets were reluctant to go big in that but IMHO it was almost impossible not to looking at the data. Jan 2015 was a tough call going 24"+. But it obviously worked out ORH eastward. But the 24-36 call was a pretty big bust to the west to keep it fair. OKX had some regrets going big too. March firehose event was another where there was a lot of hesitation going big. But even the most bullish forecasts in that were not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 PF mentioned it last night but over the years lots of mets have trouble believing the highly anamalous outputs and are reluctant to go big, Oct 11 being another one. NWS Boston went big and stuck by its guns this year under withering doubters and were proved right . It takes a little gumption to go out on a limb sometimes. Being conservative usually is more correct but the times when its needed to be aggressive are usually the times when the impacts are the greatest. Well I think we mentioned that someone would get smoked in that storm. However, sometimes mesoscale bands and freak phenomenon like over 5" of liquid equivalent and 30" of snow like at OKX simply can't be forecasted. I actually think we do a real good job at forecasting storms and talking about potential sweet spots. But, you have to also be sort of responsible and not go bonkers on a forecast because you also risk losing credibility. It's a game we play in our heads all the time. It's one thing when we talk about local jacks on the forum, it's a other thing when your azz is on the line for a forecast. There are times though to go in the face of modeling and be both bullish and bearish. I've done both and it's risky, but it's usually a setup where you just know when to call BS on models and go with your gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Oct 2011 was obvious. Tho clearly not to everyone as a lot of TV mets were reluctant to go big in that but IMHO it was almost impossible not to looking at the data. Jan 2015 was a tough call going 24"+. But it obviously worked out ORH eastward. But the 24-36 call was a pretty big bust to the west to keep it fair. OKX had some regrets going big too. March firehose event was another where there was a lot of hesitation going big. But even the most bullish forecasts in that were not enough. ironic OKXs biggest busts were on opposite sides of the spectrum,11 and 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The Feb 15 storm was the one BOX withstood the doubters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The Feb 15 storm was the one BOX withstood the doubters The feb 14-15 event with the awesome mid-level low? That was one where the mid level magicians won over the QPF queens. Big negative bust up in Maine too. Scott and I were discussing that storm last night actually. Very fascinating event from a modeling perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 The feb 14-15 event with the awesome mid-level low? That was one where the mid level magicians won over the QPF queens. Big negative bust up in Maine too. Scott and I were discussing that storm last night actually. Very fascinating event from a modeling perspective. That event provided one of the best learning experiences for me. I was going 12-20", and was pondering 1-2" in e MA right up until the day before, when I finally capitulated to relatively meager guidance, especially the EURO and GFS, and made a final call of 8-12". Still not a terrible call, but I blinked. The QPF finally got to me at the 11th hour. Never again will I prioritze QPF over the mid level layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The feb 14-15 event with the awesome mid-level low? That was one where the mid level magicians won over the QPF queens. Big negative bust up in Maine too. Scott and I were discussing that storm last night actually. Very fascinating event from a modeling perspective. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 April '97 is one for me. #2 Feb '15 #3 Feb '13 #4 Dec '92 #5 Blizz of '93 I'm So so glad that everyone feels this was a #1 (and if not a #2). If some of you remember, I did a project 2 months back ranking all the storms we have had since 1992 in overall impressiveness. This on my ranking scale, was #1. A 20"-36" Snowstorm is going to be an All-Timer regardless. A 20"-36" Snowstorm in APRIL?? Got to be #1. Would take a widespread 35"-45" Snowstorm across 3 states in normal winter times to detrown this storms overall impressiveness. Or a 20" Snowstorm in 6 hours. And Ray - 2015 was #2 to you?? I'm so Glad I came Home and talked to you during it! Didn't realize it ranked that high. Seeing all these Mets in the Video 18 years ago is so darned funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 82 was way more unique back this way. i can see for you folk out east how it ranks so high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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