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April 2015 General disco


Geos

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Man, we are real close to turning to wet snow on Thursday. Just a few hundred meters of the near surface above freezing so heavy precip rates might do the trick.

I guess I'll take it cuz we need the precip, but that would be a kick to the junk after last week's 84F. But yeah, a period of heavy snow certainly looking possible right now.

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still dense fog and mist, with a couple rounds of elevated convection on tap over the next 48, i smell a high chance of warm front bust on thursday

 

Or one of those situation where it getting mild for like an hour or two before the cold front passage. 

 

Under performing up this way today - no fog though.

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I guess I'll take it cuz we need the precip, but that would be a kick to the junk after last week's 84F. But yeah, a period of heavy snow certainly looking possible right now.

 

MPX jumping on the idea...

 

 

SEVERAL FACTORS NEED TO COME TOGETHER FOR SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE

IN OUR CWA. FIRST...THE BEST CHC OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER

PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z THU TO 06Z FRIDAY. THE SFC

LOW REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE

OVER TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERMAL

PROFILERS REMAINED UNFAVORABLE OF THIS CHANGE OVER IN OUR

CWA...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING TO

CRITICAL LEVELS IN EC MN/WC WI THURSDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS A

VERY STRONG SIGNAL OF A TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPMENT IN

EC MN/WC WI THURSDAY EVENING. AS WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE

IS A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN A SMALL BAND IF ALL THE

WEATHER ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER. IN ADDITION...A CROSS SECTION OF

THE ATMOSPHERE FROM WC MN TO SOUTHERN WI HAS EC MN IN FAVORABLE

AREA OF CONVECTIVE STABILITY INDEX /CSI/ AND SLATEWISE

CONVECTIVE. THEREFORE...IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR SOMEWHERE IN

EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TO SEE A HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT THURSDAY

EVENING IF THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

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Guest ovweather

More heavy rain and flooding in southern IN and northern KY. Rainfall totals today between 1 to 6 inches. Amazing start to April.

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Have had thunder off and on for almost 2hrs now.  Have had a lot of sprinkling going on at times, with large rain drops.  So far only 0.01", as all the downpours have skirted around.  Nice to hear thunder again.

I wasn't sure and had to do some digging but yes it is Hogback. Hiking in from the public land, I didn't see the sign.

Not a lot different today in the weather dept. High was right around freezing again, especially on the shore where I spent most if the day... down right chilly.

Some models have a real heavy snow here on Thursday... some freezing rain in the meantime.

Coast has very little snow left.

from today:

snow at my house still pretty deep but some rocky areas starting to open up

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Over 24 hrs straight of fog and mist with storms unsurprisingly south of guidance

Champaign cashing in.

Fog and mist here in dupage county oak brook area. Can walk out in T-shirt to throw out garbage with little to no discomfort. Has a nice eerie Friday the 13th atmosphere to it at this time in the morning. Nice walking climo.

Give this morning's climo a thumbs up!

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12z NAM with advisory level snow from SC MN up to the south metro on over thru W WI tomorrow night. Interesting day shaping up for parts of the sub tomorrow.

 

Bo is going to get blasted again it looks like! Possibly warning criteria up that way.

 

Been holding steady between 38-40° all morning.

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I had my first thunder of the year this morning around 5am (only 1 lol) with some heavy showers. Hoping tomorrow I can get a decent thunderstorm to come through the area, I don't expect anything severe here though being on the very northern fringe of the SPC's slight risk area.

Any flakes? I saw one of the airports up by MBS was reporting light snow for several hours and was surprised by that.

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Any flakes? I saw one of the airports up by MBS was reporting light snow for several hours and was surprised by that.

None here, I was watching the intellicast radar and it was showing snow in some areas just a hair north of me, I couldn't sleep and kept looking outside wondering if there was a chance the 40-45dbz returns would turn into huge parachutes lol. It was a pretty intense 33 degree rain for a couple hours though. :D

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