snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Might have to start taking this threat seriously as it's now less than 48 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Might have to start taking this threat seriously as it's now less than 48 hours away This is how I see the models in comparison to the GFS for wave 1 NAM/CMC/Euro Parallel: Slightly North UKIE: South Euro: Way North Until I see some more consistency, not ready to commit to the SN/ZR threat. At this point its not a great chance IMHO just based on the narrowness of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Over 150 water rescues in north-central KY and southern IN. Up to 8 inches of rain. Worst flash flooding here since March 1, 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 This is how I see the models in comparison to the GFS for wave 1 NAM/CMC/Euro Parallel: Slightly North UKIE: South Euro: Way North Until I see some more consistency, not ready to commit to the SN/ZR threat. At this point its not a great chance IMHO just based on the narrowness of the band. It's definitely a thread the needle event. A number of the GEFS are further to the north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It's definitely a thread the needle event. A number of the GEFS are further to the north as well. Even given the lower prob scenario, it would make for some shocked faces in the GTA if everything falls into place. The higher res guidance should help a lot, as they alluded to the north shift with that BZ band back in Feb I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Made it to 66° here today with 0.11" of rain. Bo - probably safe to say you're going to have snow cover for a few weeks yet. Especially with you being in the shadier woods. yeah, pretty common to have snow left in the wooded areas until Mother's Day and sometimes beyond. I'm guessing this year,early may it will be gone... especially if these below normal temps continue. Big difference from yesterday, with a high of 56... currently 23 and some light lake snow. Most likely wont see 30 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Went from 84 on Wednesday afternoon to 28 currently. Shock to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Over 150 water rescues in north-central KY and southern IN. Up to 8 inches of rain. Worst flash flooding here since March 1, 1997. That's crazy, the bad thing is the HPC 7 day QPF map shows widespread 4-5" more rain all around the same areas, and I wouldn't doubt that somebody gets way more than that if they get a tstorm train going again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That's crazy, the bad thing is the HPC 7 day QPF map shows widespread 4-5" more rain all around the same areas, and I wouldn't doubt that somebody gets way more than that if they get a tstorm train going again! Going back a month some areas around here have seen in excess of 15 inches of precip. 6 weeks ago we were 4 inches behind on the year for precip and nearing a moderate drought. Now we are 6 inches above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 loud and clear wet signal for the lower OV....could get wild if it holds for a month or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 loud and clear wet signal for the lower OV....could get wild if it holds for a month or two I HOPE as the season continues to change, the wetter weather shifts north for a bit. 23 degrees and light snow currently...yuk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I HOPE as the season continues to change, the wetter weather shifts north for a bit. 23 degrees and light snow currently...yuk! Lol, I take most of my vacations up to the UP. I have seen snow in the shady areas into the first week of June before a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Lol, I take most of my vacations up to the UP. I have seen snow in the shady areas into the first week of June before a couple times. I know! When I came and met with the previous owner of this place, they told me they usually have snow in areas of the woods here then, but I was talking "snowcover". May 1st last year, there was still 20"+ in my area... Don't think that will be the case this year obviously but, I know last year in early June there was areas of snow on my 20 acres still. Makes for a very short Summer. But that's ok. two seasons in the UP... swat and shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 12z Euro nudges south. It's now more in line with the NAM/GEM with the core of the snow from Oshawa/Newmarket through the Kawartha's and into Muskoka/Kingston area. The GFS is the furthest south with sig snow in and around the city of TO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Hardest hit areas of Louisville picked up another 1.5-2 inches of rain the last 2 hours. Storm totals are approaching 10 inches in spots. Flash-flooding rejuvenated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Really nice weekend on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Made it to 52° really early in the day here. Pretty cloudy all day. Chilly night tonight - down to 30° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 What a crazy day in Louisville. Close to 6.50 inches of rain fell at my house and a major fire broke out at the General Electric Appliance Park sending plumes of ashes up in the air. I could see the smoke from my house and I live a good seven to 10 miles away. Beargrass Creek is near my house and here's some photos I took this morning on my way to work. A lot of this had receded somewhat by the time I headed home. I've never seen the creek overflow its banks this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 sorry to hear about the flooding in KY. I dont mind as much in the "off season" but the models have been just horrendous here w/ the first several rain events of spring. Far worse than in winter. Last night I was expecting a dousing rain and hoping it would end as snow (as models showed in far eastern MI) instead I got just a few light rain showers. Cold morning, 25F at DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Yesterday morning we had very dense fog (what a fun commute that was), and then on the way home the ominous sky had a much worse bark than bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Nice pics, Josh! A beautiful Saturday morning in the north woods. walked the perimeter of my land this morning and no snowshoes needed. It's like walking on cement! Saw some wolf tracks and a few bear tracks from when the snow was soft during the thaw. No better way to wake up and start the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 The NAM sucks lol. After 6 runs in a row of it showing 3-8" of snow around MBY tonight through Easter day, it caved to the GFS at 12z and only shows 2" or so. 2-3" would still get me close to average for the season though, I guess it will be another nowcast scenario like the monday night storm was where I got 4 inches in 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 SPC is showing probs for severe for Day 6. Looks like something might be in the offing. in their synopsis, the exact placement of where the severe weather lies is difficult to forecast right now, but it looks like some sort of outbreak, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Had some snow last night. Not much more then 0.1" and the possibility of more snow tonight. Winter keeps winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 cool but still a top shelf day, windows open, big ass pot of gumbo on the stove best climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Some more for SPC, kind of odd to see something for a Day 6, but here's the synopsis. ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALLACUS48 KWNS 040858SPC AC 040858DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0358 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2015VALID 071200Z - 121200Z...DISCUSSION...LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT INTOTHE DAY 6 /THU. 4-9/ TIME PERIOD...PROJECTING THE WRN U.S. TROUGH TOBECOME PROGRESSIVE AND TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORESHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS DAY 6. FROM LATE IN THE DAY 6 PERIODONWARD...SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES SUCH THAT LOWFORECAST CONFIDENCE PREVAILS DAYS 7 AND 8.SEVERE-WEATHER RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD --BUT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN RISK EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH DAY 6APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. AS THE WRN TROUGH APPROACHES -- ANDEVENTUALLY REACHES -- THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS THEOK/ERN KS/MO/AR/N TX VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON DAY 4 /TUE.4-7/ WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WEAK RIDGING PERSISTINGALOFT -- AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SUBSIDENCE -- SHOULD PERMIT CAPPING ATTHE BOTTOM OF THE EML LAYER TO PERSIST IN MOST AREAS. THIS SUGGESTSTHAT STORM INITIATION /AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK/ SHOULD REMAINRELATIVELY ISOLATED.SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURINGTHE AFTERNOON ON DAY 5 /WED. 4-8/...AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AHEADOF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. WHILE EJECTION OF ANY APPRECIABLELEAD WAVE IS NOT EVIDENT ATTM...A LESS SUBSIDENT/MORE NEUTRALBACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE UVV SUGGESTS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CAPBREACHES/STORM INITIATION -- PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ERN KS/MO/OKVICINITY. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG SHEAREXPECTED...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED RISKFOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DAY 5 AND INTO EARLY DAY 6LIKELY...ASCERTAINING DEGREE AND LOCATION OF SEVERE RISK DAY 6PRESENTS SOME DIFFICULTY ATTM. WITH THAT SAID...THE ADVANCE OF THEWRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UVV INTO THE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINSDURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PERMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVEINITIATION -- FOCUSED INVOF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE ADVANCINGACROSS ERN KS/CENTRAL OK NEAR PEAK HEATING. WITH SUBSTANTIALINSTABILITY LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AND A FAVORABLY SHEAREDENVIRONMENT...A FAIRLY BROAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING ZONE OF RISK FORLARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES IS EVIDENT-- EXTENDING FROM IL SWWD ACROSS MO/AR INTO SERN KS/ERN OK ANDPOSSIBLY INTO N CENTRAL/NERN TX...GOSS.. 04/04/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Ive noticed that most snow piles in the sun, even the once-mountainous ones, are gone, but a few stubborn ones still hanging on in the shade, even after dewpoints in the upper 50s the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 The NAM sucks lol. After 6 runs in a row of it showing 3-8" of snow around MBY tonight through Easter day, it caved to the GFS at 12z and only shows 2" or so. 2-3" would still get me close to average for the season though, I guess it will be another nowcast scenario like the monday night storm was where I got 4 inches in 4 hours. If Tuesday's event is any sign (as the models overcorrected southward with that frontogenesis band of snow also), I think you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 You don't see these type of widespread lapse rates often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 You don't see these type of widespread lapse rates often... Definitely helps when there's no precip/convection to overturn all those LRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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