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April 2015 General disco


Geos

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For this season I'm keeping track of every severe event that skips over the DVN cwa so we can look back at how many times it happens.  Seems like every season the eastern Plains/western MW cash in on severe, while we get sloppy seconds in the DVN cwa, and then areas to the east like eastern IL and IN cash in on severe potential.  I've set the over/under at 10.  I'm guessing we easily break 10, much like in previous years.  This early April event is event number 1.

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For this season I'm keeping track of every severe event that skips over the DVN cwa so we can look back at how many times it happens.  Seems like every season the eastern Plains/western MW cash in on severe, while we get sloppy seconds in the DVN cwa, and then areas to the east like eastern IL and IN cash in on severe potential.  I've set the over/under at 10.  I'm guessing we easily break 10, much like in previous years.  This early April event is event number 1.

 

 

always sucks to get stuck in a bad timing cycle

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This is the first real warm day since November, and it feels incredible. Windows are open, birds are chirping, nice breeze coming through my house, ahh, so good! I actually forgot what warmth felt like. I hope a true pattern change can happen soon.

 

acttemp_600x405.jpg

 

 

Oh man, I really don't think that happens. Even if it does a pattern change is coming soon.

 

 

Man, April 2003 ice storm redux on the 12z GFS.

I saw that. Next week looks ugly weatherwise. Still, JB has been going on about a pattern change around the 10th for about a month now. Fingers crossed that he is right as I'm tired of the cold now and want it to go away until November.

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Mid 60s now, but not tomorrow...

 

Caught this from the latest LOT discussion.

 

 

LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD OUT AHEAD OF IT. PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
BLOSSOM AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ALL RAIN AS THIS PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIMILAR
THOUGHTS CONTINUE WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLING AS
PERSISTENT CAA OCCURS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF A TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX.
HOWEVER...AM MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FORCING OWING
TO A STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS PLACEMENT VARIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...THE SIGNAL IS PRESENT FROM MOST GUIDANCE. THIS STRONGER
FORCING ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ALOFT
TO LIKELY BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT ENTIRE COLUMN
WILL BE DYNAMICALLY COOLED TO SUPPORT EITHER A RAIN SNOW MIX OR
EVEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IN THE
GRIDS...AND THEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINING CWA. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRENDS
BUT HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE OF SOME LOCATIONS OBSERVING AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX. DONT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS AS I WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE
DAY AND AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD AND IF TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW FRIDAY...THEN I WOULD ALSO BE
CONCERNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES.

RODRIGUEZ

 

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Guest ovweather

6 inches of rain at my house since yesterday. Major flash-flooding ongoing in Louisville.

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Guest ovweather

Media reporting 28 different water rescues. I-65 closed near downtown due to flooding.

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