IWXwx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Gil Sebenste of NIU Weather thinks that all modes of svr could occur Sunday south of a Peoria-Rensselaer line including the possibility of some significant tornadoes. I wonder what he is seeing that SPC isn't at present. Strange. Highly sheared environment but instability is lacking to say the least. Sam Lashley at IWX perked my ears up this afternoon. He says to watch to warm front. I pay attention to what Sam says when it comes to severe, he knows his stuff. In fact, he was one of the mets that made the catch on the Henryville tornado, great video. ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2 WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. Maybe we'll be able to fire up the short term severe thread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Don't quote me on this but I think a warmer than average April (which seems likely as the upcoming below average temps probably won't be enough to erase the positive departures) leads to a greater likelihood of the upcoming summer being average to above average compared to when April is cooler than average. I think Tim or I looked into it before. I have some stats for Indianapolis (data for the airport, since 1943). Not much of a correlation, though I guess cooler than average Aprils would somewhat favor a cooler than average Summer. Warm Aprils favor "average" Summers (somewhere between +0.9˚ and -0.9˚). All this taken with a grain of salt of course. Warm Aprils (+1˚ or warmer) Above average Summer: 9 Average Summer: 13 Below average Summer: 8 Cool Aprils (-1˚ or cooler) Above average Summer: 7 Average Summer: 9 Below average Summer: 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 We hit 79 this afternoon. It was actually a little warm due to a higher dewpoint (50) and little if any wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Sam Lashley at IWX perked my ears up this afternoon. He says to watch to warm front. I pay attention to what Sam says when it comes to severe, he knows his stuff. In fact, he was one of the mets that made the catch on the Henryville tornado, great video. ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2 WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. Maybe we'll be able to fire up the short term severe thread again. I guess. Haven't looked at it much to be honest but events like 4/20/04 serve as a reminder to keep an eye on these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I have some stats for Indianapolis (data for the airport, since 1943). Not much of a correlation, though I guess cooler than average Aprils would somewhat favor a cooler than average Summer. Warm Aprils favor "average" Summers (somewhere between +0.9˚ and -0.9˚). All this taken with a grain of salt of course. Warm Aprils (+1˚ or warmer) Above average Summer: 9 (30%) Average Summer: 13 (43.3%) Below average Summer: 8 (26.7%) Cool Aprils (-1˚ or cooler) Above average Summer: 7 (26.9%) Average Summer: 9 (34.6%) Below average Summer: 10 (38.5%) Added some percentages for each grouping. Not huge as you said but a somewhat better chance of getting an average or warmer than average summer when April is on the warm side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 I guess. Haven't looked at it much to be honest but events like 4/20/04 serve as a reminder to keep an eye on these things.I could be wrong but I really don't see the threat area even being in central IN and IL on Sunday. There's really no instability to speak of on current guidance (18z NAM and GFS have basically 0 MUCAPE), as well as poor midlevel lapse rates. It's obviously a good rule of thumb to be wary of the warm frontal zone of a decently strong sfc low this time of year, but at this time it appears clouds and precip will preclude even minimal destabilization of the warm sector. Also, mid and upper level flow is actually pretty weak, so while there is good low level veering and decent turning with height, deep layer shear is a bit lacking. My thinking today was setup is more favorable for heavy rainfall than severe in most of the subforum, with focus of heavier rains depending on track of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 So it's Ryan, Ricky and the SPC vs. Sam and Gil. You guys are probably right due to lack of CAPE, but I'm jonesing for some action. In the meantime, I'll be enjoying my preview of summer tomorrow while trying to catch some fish. Then next weekend I'll try to find some morels, regardless of the cutoff low mucking things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 NWS has rain/snow in forecast for Mon/Tues... yes! 81F here this afternoon..i had the AC on in the car.. On Mon the furnace will be back on. 50Fs rest of the week ...with frost every night/freeze...who knows...trees are going to get smacked hard...if they are blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Actually wouldn't be shocked if we haven't seen the last flakes yet. Glad I have not plant any flowers yet then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 Mid 30s in the forecast for low next week, so it seems at least some more frosts are on the way. Haven't seen many flowering trees yet, except a few Magnolia's and some crab apple's in the immediate area. I'm sure further inland more trees have blossomed. Peaked at 76° today. --- 0z NAM has the low at 989mb near Terre Haute at 21z Sunday. 986mb by 3z over South Bend. Totally soaker for north central and northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 DVN just posted this on their fb page. Appreciable rain amounts are hard to come by in the QCA here in 2015 apparently. "Like Bowling?? If you do, you know how frustrating a split can be! For those needing rain, Central Iowa will be wet Saturday and Sunday, while Illinois only sees rain likely on Sunday. If you live near the Mississippi river in Iowa or Illinois, it looks like a split is on the way! If you need rains over 0.25", then you may have to wait until sometime over a week from now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! GFS keeps 850s below 0C for 10 days here..10 days. Say bye bye to any warmth until May. GFS has shown this for what...20 runs now... ? pretty much a lock. Lot of stuff blooming here=game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Brisk day here, but pretty much classic April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 We are in the 70s again today despite little sun. It has been quite a stretch of weather this week. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get. Generally, models have the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City corridor on the line between solid rain to the west and dry pocket to the east. We could get an inch, we could get a couple tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Did about 3 hours of raking this morning so the blooming plants don't struggle to pop out. Clouded over now and up to 1" of rain in the grids. We need it badly. Previous owner of the house put a type of sod in the backyard that doesn't require as much moisture, but it's barely started turning green. The soaker tonight and tomorrow should do wonders. Currently 72 and will be feel a heatwave come next week. Snow flakes Monday/night. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 NE winds were whipping all day here. Stayed in the 50s all day, except it did pop up to 61° right after sunrise. Looks like the 12km NAM is favoring you Cyclone for the heavier rains. And off to the east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 We nailed 80° even today. It will be well into May before we see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 We nailed 80° even today. It will be well into May before we see that again. Nice. Managed 77 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 76F... my sweet cherry started blooming today... they'll be toast if the GFS holds. 5 days in the 70fs and 2 days in the 80fs... +5.9F for the month... warm april...although the next 10 should eat away at that. GFS cut rain amts pretty good for here..more like a quarter inch total.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 NE winds were whipping all day here. Stayed in the 50s all day, except it did pop up to 61° right after sunrise. Looks like the 12km NAM is favoring you Cyclone for the heavier rains. And off to the east as well. I'd be ok with this locally. Two 75F+ days in a row. Perfect weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Huge bust on the soaker for today. Dry slot FTL. Was looking forward to an all day rain too. The drought lives on, and the winter chill is about to return. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Huge bust on the soaker for today. Dry slot FTL. Was looking forward to an all day rain too. The drought lives on, and the winter chill is about to return. Good times. Dude, you and Brewers should have stayed in IL and WI. You've had a crappy winter that looks to turn into a summer drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 I ended up on the wet side of a sharp wet west/dry east line late yesterday through this morning. My gauge just passed a half inch. Another half inch is quite possible later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 0.06" from a dying shower yesterday evening. Looks like maybe another tenth or so if we're lucky later today. Iowa looks to get some decent convection again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 There are some thunderstorms over Lake Erie moving in our direction. DTX thinks they'll impact us this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Managing to be in a sunny wedge right now. Look like the steady rain will hold off till mid to late afternoon now. Looks pretty wet by dinner time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Today was unexpected, top shelf, mostly sunny, just cracked 70. I thought I'd be waking up to thick clouds and sprinkles.Today has been awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 There are some thunderstorms over Lake Erie moving in our direction. DTX thinks they'll impact us this afternoon... Didn't get any thunder here but there was a very solid downpour for about 10-15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Still nice out, but it has clouded over now. At the high of 58° right now. Can make out the comma shape to the storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Checking in from south Florida. It is WAYYY too hot and humid lol. Feels hotter than ANYTHING I felt last summer. Looks quite cold when I return to Michigan Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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