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3/28/2015 IVT Discussion/Observations


SR Airglow

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I am usually on the conservative train but some of the model runs were impressive last night. Especially eastern Mass/RI area if they are cold enough.

 

With diurnal spring events, that'll be essential.  You can see how the sun will melt ice well when the ambient temp is well below freezing.  Put temps near/above 32* and a 51* sun angle through overcast, you've got some obstacles to overcome.

 

Accumulations will be particularly challenging on paved areas.

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Not so sure of that. As I mentioned earlier, the environment is somewhat hostile and temps east of the hills are low-mid 30's will make things more challenging.

We'll see soon enough.

sn-

29.4/25

All about the rates. So far I like the radar trends. It has snowed and stuck midday in April in NYC of all places (2003?)

I think Kev does very well - hoping I do ok in the valley

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It will be interesting to see how 2m temps climb during the day, if much at all. MOS doesn't budge much. HRRR torches to near 40 in the Connecticut River Valley. I still don't think there's much accumulation outside of grassy areas and higher terrain through mid-afternoon, but that changes later on. General 1-3" east of I-91 with maybe some higher lollies if a weenie band sets up in eastern Connecticut?

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It will be interesting to see how 2m temps climb during the day, if much at all. MOS doesn't budge much. HRRR torches to near 40 in the Connecticut River Valley. I still don't think there's much accumulation outside of grassy areas and higher terrain through mid-afternoon, but that changes later on. General 1-3" east of I-91 with maybe some higher lollies if a weenie band sets up in eastern Connecticut?

check GFS Bufkit
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It will be interesting to see how 2m temps climb during the day, if much at all. MOS doesn't budge much. HRRR torches to near 40 in the Connecticut River Valley. I still don't think there's much accumulation outside of grassy areas and higher terrain through mid-afternoon, but that changes later on. General 1-3" east of I-91 with maybe some higher lollies if a weenie band sets up in eastern Connecticut?

I think the valley will have trouble on the roads..but will easily get 2-3 spot 4 on cold surfaces.  Hills will do better. I'd bet we see quite a few 4-6 inch amounts in places above 600 feet

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All about the rates. So far I like the radar trends. It has snowed and stuck midday in April in NYC of all places (2003?)

I think Kev does very well - hoping I do ok in the valley

 

Good luck.  Rates will be key to get things going.  Any let up will allow for settling and melting particularly on paved surfaces.

 

I'm prepared for seeing some nice views of snow falling through the window; the cruddy, dated snows getting a fresh coating of white; and not a whole lot more to show for it.  Perhaps down near Kevin it will be better, but the temps are worse there.  All of the Tolland stations outside of the spurious one on Old Post Rd are AOA freezing.  I imagine Hubb will do best since he'll be cooler and still have some good qpf.

 

Meanwhile, the flakes are looking good here attm with a light coating.

 

29.2/25

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