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3/28/2015 IVT Discussion/Observations


SR Airglow

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He's probably just been traumatized by climo.

Well there's certainly no shortage of lift and moisture in the CT river valley. He probably is thinking it won't fall heavy enough to get 4"+ snow totals the mesos have. Hopefully he isn't talking from a QPF perspective because that band is probably going to set up in that area at some point tomorrow. GFS has 0.5" qpf now and all the models have increased the QPF output. I think we can only go up with this one in terms of QPF. Don't see a reason why that aspect should bust on the low side for this event. 

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Well there's certainly no shortage of lift and moisture in the CT river valley. He probably is thinking it won't fall heavy enough to get 4"+ snow totals the mesos have. Hopefully he isn't talking from a QPF perspective because that band is probably going to set up in that area at some point tomorrow. GFS has 0.5" qpf now and all the models have increased the QPF output. I think we can only go up with this one in terms of QPF. Don't see a reason why that aspect should bust on the low side for this event. 

The problem is that it takes forever to fall, and the "heaviest" portion is during the day.

Good luck, dude.

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The problem is that it takes forever to fall, and the "heaviest" portion is during the day.

Good luck, dude.

Yea, well Norluns are hard to figure out. Might be only .1" liquid in a 6 hour period, which is what most models have, or it could be .3"+ liquid in a 6 hour period thanks to the lift and better snow growth that usually accompanies these types of events. Right now I'd say it's a 50/50 at which one happens, but its a fickle setup. 

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pretty much  :lmao:

He's probably just been traumatized by climo.

 

its late march it needs to snow at a good rate and this just wont have that in my opinion hope im wrong

Well there's certainly no shortage of lift and moisture in the CT river valley. He probably is thinking it won't fall heavy enough to get 4"+ snow totals the mesos have. Hopefully he isn't talking from a QPF perspective because that band is probably going to set up in that area at some point tomorrow. GFS has 0.5" qpf now and all the models have increased the QPF output. I think we can only go up with this one in terms of QPF. Don't see a reason why that aspect should bust on the low side for this event. 

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I expect areas where the heaviest bands set up to reach 3-5"..regardless of time of day. I'm assuming it will be falling heavy enough to overcome that in those areas. In most other areas, maybe 1-2" or less. It's anyone's guess as to where those bands set up.

I wouldn't assume a damn thing.

This has underachiever written all over it.

But I've said my peace.....knock yourself out.

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this has not been Euro's winter

 

0z (old Euro) made a big jump northwest vs. 12z, now 2-4" most of SNE east of I91, highest amounts southeast MA

 

excellent consensus for a widespread 2-4" event, only concern is how does that actually add up with non-heavy rates mid-day and low-mid 30s

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I expect areas where the heaviest bands set up to reach 3-5"..regardless of time of day. I'm assuming it will be falling heavy enough to overcome that in those areas. In most other areas, maybe 1-2" or less. It's anyone's guess as to where those bands set up.

 

I'll take the under.  I doubt anyone exceeds 3".  You're going to need some pretty good rates with wet snow and post-equinox sun to get anything higher.

 

And lest anyone brings up the October storm of a few years ago, remember the sun strength then was 5-6 weeks weaker than today's.

 

I've had about 5 flakes so far, though.

 

30.9/27

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I'll take the under. I doubt anyone exceeds 3". You're going to need some pretty good rates with wet snow and post-equinox sun to get anything higher.

I am usually on the conservative train but some of the model runs were impressive last night. Especially eastern Mass/RI area if they are cold enough.

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