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3/28/2015 IVT Discussion/Observations


SR Airglow

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Been following from a distance

 

Nice to see mesos ramp up as we get closer.

At least 2-3" east of I91 seems fair, with higher amounts contingent on better rates to overcome warm boundary layer.

 

Can anyone who's been following more closely explain:

 

1) why are models ramping up? 

Seems to me there's a larger synoptic reason for this, not just better placement of the IVT.

Some possibilities:

- mesos (at least RGEM) seems to be tracking surface low slightly more northwest every 6 hours

- GFS has been trending more intense vorticity southeast of us

 

 

2) how do we distinguish CCB snowfall from IVT snowfall?

Haven't looked at surface winds for signs of localized convergence, but it seems at least in southeastern SNE that we may actually get into CCB.

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That is a shift east of the best weenie band. Still solid 2-3 back this way. Nervous about weaker rates at this low elevation.

That scenario honestly ends up being nothing more than coating for you and I. Wise to be very cautious with this set up this time of year. I'm expecting nothing but wet flakes in the air tomorrow.

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