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3/28/2015 IVT Discussion/Observations


SR Airglow

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Huh?  Really - I don't think so.  I just looked back over the more robust model types and they all have this a daylight thing that decays slowly toward dark and terminates mid evening as flurries...  

No..none of them had/have that.the most accumulations are expected after about 4:00pm..it's always been modeled as such

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White rain.   It's not even sticking to colder surfaces here anymore-raw nasty day 32 degrees

 

Yup, and we pounded this point over the last couple of days, that at this time of year, ...even an overcast that seems thick and imposing, you gotta really have some heftier fall rates and/or colder than this to get the job done.  

 

No surprises -

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Yeah I'm not sure what they were thinking? Maybe they thought just heavy snow all day..This has always been modeled as a 2 part event. One early morning thru midday..then a lull or where it lightened up and then the main show was always supposed to be after about 4:00 as the INV sets up. Scooter and I even brought this up yesterday. You can actually see signs of it now as there's echoes moving nw and se.

I just looked back through the 18z/00z/6z models over the past 24 hours and really can't find much of anything in the mesos (NAM/RGEM/WRFs/SREFS) along with the globals that strongly indicate what you are saying with a 2 part event. All have pretty steady light precip output every 3-hours throughout the day today into this evening, tapering off by 8pm.

What specifically did you see to think 2-part event aside from a showery look to the precip fields?

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I just looked back through the 18z/00z/6z models over the past 24 hours and really can't find much of anything in the mesos (NAM/RGEM/WRFs/SREFS) along with the globals that strongly indicate what you are saying with a 2 part event. All have pretty steady light precip output every 3-hours throughout the day today into this evening, tapering off by 8pm.

What specifically did you see to think 2-part event aside from a showery look to the precip fields?

I saw higher qpf in the morning hours..then what seemed like  bit of a lull..and then as the inv sort of takes over for western areas ..that's when they cash in..while over ENE it's more from the comma head. It seems like everything is still sort of evolving..and should "fill in "as the afternoon wears on

 

Most of the stuff looked to me like snowed at least thru midnight to varying degrees.  But as Tip trashed me..I'm not a met..so what do I know

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Yup, and we pounded this point over the last couple of days, that at this time of year, ...even an overcast that seems thick and imposing, you gotta really have some heftier fall rates and/or colder than this to get the job done.  

 

No surprises -

Yup.

Had that for a brief period this a.m, when it stuck, but now, just a late season white rain event.

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I saw higher qpf in the morning hours..then what seemed like  bit of a lull..and then as the inv sort of takes over for western areas ..that's when they cash in..while over ENE it's more from the comma head. It seems like everything is still sort of evolving..and should "fill in "as the afternoon wears on

 

Most of the stuff looked to me like snowed at least thru midnight to varying degrees.  But as Tip trashed me..I'm not a met..so what do I know

this is a fair assessment, only nitpick would be location of inverted trough developing more towards central regions before sliding southeast 

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Rap says watch out from about Ginxy up to ORH later on towards 00z and perhaps up towards Ray. Pretty strong inverted trough look.

The snow will begin to stick better as the sfc really cools down. Even up around 950mb cools a decent amount as we go through the next 8-10 hours.

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I saw higher qpf in the morning hours..then what seemed like bit of a lull..and then as the inv sort of takes over for western areas ..that's when they cash in..while over ENE it's more from the comma head. It seems like everything is still sort of evolving..and should "fill in "as the afternoon wears on

Most of the stuff looked to me like snowed at least thru midnight to varying degrees. But as Tip trashed me..I'm not a met..so what do I know

Yeah I could see *someone* seeing flakes fall until midnight but I doubt it's still widespread after like 8pm tonight. By then it may be a residual band or something over a few towns?

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Looking at the radar, it looks like you have the main precip shield slowly moving NE, and what looks like an inverted trough signature from ALB to HPN-BDR.  You have to wonder if that's how it goes and that inverted trough sort of slides from ALB down through western CT and Long Island...while the main precip shield slides northeast up the coast?

 

 

March_28_zpsybd5vdou.gif

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My folks near Albany just sent a picture and they were down to bare ground, but now it looks like the grass may be covered again.  Looks like at least 1-2" there and didn't even look wet (ie not pasting to trees and stuff).  Watch eastern NY come in with like 3-4" out of this.

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Looking at the radar, it looks like you have the main precip shield slowly moving NE, and what looks like an inverted trough signature from ALB to HPN-BDR. You have to wonder if that's how it goes and that inverted trough sort of slides from ALB down through western CT and Long Island...while the main precip shield slides northeast up the coast?

The rap weakens the western inverted trough stuff over the next few hours and redevelops one over central areas later in the afternoon.

This is def a nowcasting type event.

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Sticking to the trees now. Definitely seems colder as the snow is blowing around. Need the rates though, but pretty dam good for daylight on 3/28.

don"t tell Mr Met. There are spots thruout SNE with sticking snow and good rates and this was most definitely two parts, northern fringe of CCB then INVT. All models snow for most of us until midnight

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My folks near Albany just sent a picture and they were down to bare ground, but now it looks like the grass may be covered again.  Looks like at least 1-2" there and didn't even look wet (ie not pasting to trees and stuff).  Watch eastern NY come in with like 3-4" out of this.

Pointed it out earlier great divergence there

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Rap says watch out from about Ginxy up to ORH later on towards 00z and perhaps up towards Ray. Pretty strong inverted trough look.

The snow will begin to stick better as the sfc really cools down. Even up around 950mb cools a decent amount as we go through the next 8-10 hours.

I am watching, hate to Ginx myself but I can feel the cold getting established with the wind picking up, not surprised scooter is sticking well, ocean might as well be a refrigerator

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I was able to measure .25" this a.m. but since then nothing is sticking.  Snow is falling, but useless since I can't measure it so it = 0 accum since earlier today, unless something changes later.

 

 

Rap says watch out from about Ginxy up to ORH later on towards 00z and perhaps up towards Ray. Pretty strong inverted trough look.

The snow will begin to stick better as the sfc really cools down. Even up around 950mb cools a decent amount as we go through the next 8-10 hours.

Garth

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don"t tell Mr Met. There are spots thruout SNE with sticking snow and good rates and this was most definitely two parts, northern fringe of CCB then INVT. All models snow for most of us until midnight

From now on I ignore the deranged ,unstable met.

nice look again to radar as it's quickly filling back in over most of CT. Sky is darkening again. Still have very light snow falling.but heavier returns encroaching 30.3

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