Roger Smith Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Call for forecasts for April 2015 predict anomaly (F deg) from 1981-2010 normal values DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Deadline for entries (no penalty) 06z Wed April 1st later entries subject to 1% penalty per 2h late through first 36h (to 18z Thurs April 2nd) then to a further 1% per hour penalty to expiry on April 6th. Good luck -- a tight cluster of scores appears to be developing for March. Too bad I am not in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +1.6 ____+1.0 ___+0.2 __ +2.0 __+1.6 ___+0.0 _______+3.3 ___-0.6 _____-1.5 EDITED: 10:30AM EDT, 3/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 DCA +2.7 NYC +2.9 BOS +1.7 ORD +2.3 ATL +3.1 IAH +1.0 DEN -1.4 PHX -0.6 SEA -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 DCA +2.0NYC +1.5BOS +1.0ORD +3.2ATL +3.5IAH +1.0DEN +1.6 PHX -1.2SEA -2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 DCA........NYC.......BOS.......ORD......ATL........IAH.......DEN.......PHX....SEA +1.6 +1.7 +0.4 +1.5 +1.9 +1.8 +0.5 +1.9 +0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA +1.2 NYC -0.5 BOS -0.7 ORD +2.1 ATL +2.2 IAH +0.8 DEN +1.8 PHX +0.5 SEA +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA __ -0.3__NYC __-1.1__ BOS __-1.6__ ORD __+1.4__ ATL __+2.2__ IAH __+1.1__ DEN __+0.9__ PHX __+0.6__ SEA__-0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA +1.5NYC +0.7BOS -0.1ORD +1.8ATL +2.4IAH +1.2DEN +1.1PHX +1.8SEA +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA +3.0 NYC -0.7BOS -1.9ORD +2.0ATL +3.9IAH +2.0DEN +3.0PHX +3.1SEA +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +1.2 ____-0.3 ___-0.6 ____ +2.0 ___+2.2 ___+2.2 _______+4.3 ___+1.2 ____-0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DC +1.0 NYC -.4 BOS -1.5 ORD -1.0 ATL +1.4 IAH +1.0 DEN +2.8 PHX +1.4 SEA +.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 1.8 -0.5 -1.6 0.7 2.4 0.9 1.3 -1.1 -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 DC +2.5 NYC +1.7 BOS +0.8 ORD +1.3 ATL +3.5 IAH +2.6 DEN +3.5 PHX +1.7 SEA +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksammut Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +2.2__+1.4___-1.3_____+1.8___+2.3__+1.4____-1.3____-1.2___-2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 DCA: +1.5 NYC: -1.0 BOS: -1.5 ORD: +2.3 ATL: +3.1 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +1.8 PHX: +0.6 SEA: -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 DCA ____ NYC ____ BOS _______ ORD ____ ATL ____ IAH _______ DEN ____ PHX ____ SEA +0.5 0.0 -0.6 0.0 +2.0 +1.0 +1.3 +1.0 -1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Call for forecasts for April 2015 predict anomaly (F deg) from 1981-2010 normal values DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Deadline for entries (no penalty) 06z Wed April 1st later entries subject to 1% penalty per 2h late through first 36h (to 18z Thurs April 2nd) then to a further 1% per hour penalty to expiry on April 6th. Good luck -- a tight cluster of scores appears to be developing for March. Too bad I am not in that. DCA+3.0 NYC:+1.5 BOS:+3.0 ORD:+1.0 ATL:+3.5 IAH:+2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 DCA +2.9 NYC +3.1 BOS +1.9 ORD +2.5 ATL +3.2 IAH +1.2 DEN -0.4 PHX -0.2 SEA -1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 1, 2015 Author Share Posted April 1, 2015 -1.5 _ -1.8 _ -2.2 __ -1.5 _ -1.8 _ -2.0 ___ -1.0 __ +3.3 _ 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 DCA +2.1 NYC -0.8 BOS -0.8 ORD +2.0 ATL +2.7 IAH +1.1 DEN -1.8 PHX -0.2 SEA -2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 Table of forecasts for April 2015 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Tenman Johnson _______________ +3.0__+1.5__+3.0__ +1.0__+3.5__+2.0Damage in Tolland ______________+3.0__--0.7__--1.9__ +2.0__+3.9__+2.0___+3.0__+3.1__+0.2blazess556 ____________________ +2.9__+3.1__+1.9__ +2.5__+3.2__+1.2___--0.4__--0.2__--1.3Stebo ________________________ +2.7__+2.9__+1.7__ +2.3__+3.1__+1.0___--1.4__--0.6__--1.1Midlo Snow Maker ______________ +2.5__+1.7__+0.8__ +1.3__+3.5__+2.6___+3.5__+1.7__+1.0ksammut _____________________ +2.2__+1.4__--1.3__ +1.8__+2.3__+1.4___--1.3__--1.2__--2.1bkviking ______ (-2%) __________+2.1__--0.8__--0.8__ +2.0__+2.7__+1.1___--1.8__--0.2__--2.1Maxim _______________________ +2.0__+1.5__+1.0__ +3.2__+3.5__+1.0___+1.6__--1.2__--2.0RodneyS _____________________ +1.8__--0.5__--1.6__ +0.7__+2.4__+0.9___+1.3__--1.1__--0.8Tom _________________________+1.6__+1.7__+0.4__ +1.5__+1.9__+1.8___+0.5__+1.9__+0.4Mallow _______________________+1.6__+1.0__+0.2__ +2.0__+1.6___0.0____+3.3__--0.6__--1.5 Consensus ____________________ +1.6__--0.3__--0.7__ +1.8__+2.3__+1.2___+1.3__+0.6__--0.8 wxallannj _____________________ +1.5__+0.7__--0.1__ +1.8__+2.4__+1.2___+1.1__+1.8__+0.2Isotherm ______________________+1.5__--1.0__--1.5__ +2.3__+3.1__+2.5___+1.8__+0.6__--1.1Donsutherland.1 ________________+1.2__--0.3__--0.6__ +2.0__+2.2__+2.2___+4.3__+1.2__--0.8Rjay _________________________ +1.2__--0.5__--0.7__ +2.1__+2.2__+0.8___+1.8__+0.5__+1.1N. of Pike _____________________ +1.0__--0.4__--1.5__ --1.0__+1.4__+1.0___+2.8__+1.4__+0.8SD ___________________________+1.0__--1.0__--1.0__ --1.0__+1.0___0.0___+1.5__+2.0__+1.0wxdude64 _____________________+0.5___0.0__--0.6____ 0.0__+2.0__+1.0___+1.3__+1.0__--1.0 Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Absolute Humidity ______________ --0.3__--1.1__--1.6__ +1.4__+2.2__+1.1___+0.9__+0.6__--0.5Roger Smith ___________________ --1.5__--1.8__--2.2__--1.5__--1.8__--2.0___--1.0__+3.3___0.0 ______________________________________________ Consensus for the first six stations is the mean of 10th and 11th ranked forecasts, then for the western stations, the 10th ranked. (20 entries so far, 19 western) All scoring updated in the March forecast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 One week into the month, with projections to end of second week (NWS seven-day used) ... _________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA __ (7d) ___ +5.9 _ +3.0 _ --1.4 ___ +3.4 _ +6.3 _ +5.9 _____ +2.9 _ +5.2 _ +0.1 __ (p14) __ +4.0 _ +2.3 _ --0.7 ___ +5.0 _ +7.0 _ +6.0 _____ +3.5 _ +3.2 _ +0.2 Beyond that, the GFS 12z appears to be quite warm for all but SEA and DEN which would still average near normal in a highly variable regime. So if that were correct, the 14th numbers would tend to remain fairly stable except with BOS rising to about +2 and DEN falling to about +1, by the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 11, 2015 Author Share Posted April 11, 2015 After 10 days ... _________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA __ (10d) __ +3.0 _ --0.2 _ --2.9 ___ +3.6 _ +8.4 _ +6.0 _____ +2.5 _ +3.4 _ +1.1 __ (p17) __ +3.0 _ +1.2 _ --0.1 ___ +3.5 _ +5.8 _ +4.5 _____ +3.0 _ +4.0 _ +1.0 Pattern from 18th to 27th on GFS looks colder than these values for all but western stations which look similar or a bit warmer. Possible that small positives would still exist for DCA, ATL and IAH, small negatives indicated for ORD, NYC and BOS on the GFS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 After 12 days, starting the countdown ... _________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA __ (10d) __ +3.0 _ --0.2 _ --2.9 ___ +3.6 _ +8.4 _ +6.0 _____ +2.5 _ +3.4 _ +1.1 __ (12d) __ +2.9 _ --0.1 _ --1.6 ___ +3.8 _ +7.6 _ +5.6 _____ +3.0 _ +3.3 _ +0.7 __ (14d) __ +3.5 _ +0.9 _ --0.1 ___ +4.2 _ +8.0 _ +5.5 _____ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ --0.1 __ (15d) __ +3.5 _ +1.4 _ +0.6 ___ +4.2 _ +7.7 _ +5.3 _____ +3.6 _ +3.7 _ --0.2 __ (16d) __ +3.7 _ +1.6 _ +0.7 ___ +4.4 _ +6.8 _ +5.2 _____ +2.6 _ +3.0 _ --0.1 __ (17d) __ +4.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 ___ +4.8 _ +6.3 _ +5.1 _____ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +0.1 __ (18d) __ +4.7 _ +2.8 _ +1.2 ___ +4.9 _ +6.2 _ +4.9 _____ +1.7 _ +2.5 _ +0.4 __ (19d) __ +4.7 _ +2.8 _ +0.9 ___ +5.0 _ +6.2 _ +4.7 _____ +1.3 _ +2.5 _ +0.8 __ (20d) __ +5.0 _ +2.5 _ +0.7 ___ +4.6 _ +6.1 _ +4.3 _____ +0.9 _ +2.7 _ +1.2 __ (21d) __ +5.0 _ +2.5 _ +0.9 ___ +4.1 _ +5.7 _ +4.0 _____ +1.0 _ +2.7 _ +1.3 __ (22d) __ +4.9 _ +2.5 _ +1.1 ___ +3.4 _ +5.5 _ +4.0 _____ +1.1 _ +2.7 _ +1.2 __ (23d) __ +4.4 _ +2.0 _ +0.8 ___ +2.9 _ +5.1 _ +4.1 _____ +1.4 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 __ (24d) __ +3.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.4 ___ +2.4 _ +4.8 _ +4.2 _____ +1.4 _ +2.1 _ +0.9 __ (25d) __ +3.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 ___ +2.0 _ +4.8 _ +4.3 _____ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +0.7 __ (26d) __ +3.0 _ +1.1 _ +0.1 ___ +1.6 _ +4.8 _ +4.3 _____ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 __ (27d) __ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 ___ +1.3 _ +4.5 _ +4.1 _____ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 __ (28d) __ +2.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.1 ___ +1.0 _ +4.1 _ +3.6 _____ +0.7 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ (29d) __ +2.6 _ +1.2 __ 0.0 ___ +0.8 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 _____ +0.9 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 __ (30d) __ +2.6 _ +1.1 _ --0.1 __ +0.5 _ +3.7 _ +2.9 ____ +1.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.1 (Friday May 1st) _ 0815h _ All stations now confirmed, scoring will be updated as final values are made available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 Final scoring for April 2015 FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ cla ____ ORD_ATL_IAH __ exp ____ TOTALS Midlo Snow Maker ______________98__90__82____270 ____ 84__96__94 ___ 274 ____ 544Tenman Johnson _______________92__94__38____224 ____ 90__96__82 ___ 268 ____ 492 wxallannj _____________________78__90_100____268 ____ 74__74__66 ___ 214 ____ 482 Tom _________________________80__90__90____260 ____ 80__64__78 ___ 222 ____ 482ksammut _____________________92__96__76____264 ____ 74__72__70 ___ 216 ____ 480Damage in Tolland _____________ 92__62__64____218 ____ 70__96__82 ___ 248 ____ 466 Maxim _______________________ 88__94__78____260 ____ 46__96__62 ___ 204 ____ 464 Donsutherland.1 _______________ 72__70__90____232 ____ 70__70__86 ___ 226 ____ 458Isotherm _____________________ 78__56__72____206 ____ 64__88__92 ___ 244 ____ 450 RodneyS _____________________ 84__66__70____220 ____ 96__74__60 ___ 230 ____ 450 Consensus ____________________80__70__88____238 ____ 74__72__66 ___ 212 ____ 450 wxdude64 ____________________ 58__76__90____224 ____ 90__66__62 ___ 218 ____ 442 Stebo ________________________98__66__64____228 ____ 64__88__62 ___ 214 ____ 442bkviking ______ (-2%) __________90__60__86____236 ____ 70__80__64 ___ 214 __ 450 (441) Mallow _______________________80__96__94____270 ____ 70__58__42 ___ 170 ____ 440blazess556 ____________________94__62__60____216 ____ 60__90__66 ___ 216 ____ 432 Rjay _________________________72__66__88____226 ____ 68__70__58 ___ 196 ____ 422 N. of Pike _____________________68__68__72____208 ____ 70__54__62 ___ 186 ____ 394 Absolute Humidity ______________ 42__54__70____166 ____ 82__70__64 ___ 216 ____ 382 Normal _______________________ 48__76__98____222 ____ 90__26__42 ___ 158 ____ 380 SD ___________________________68__56__82____206 ____ 70__46__42 ___ 158 ____ 364 Roger Smith ___________________ 18__40__58____116 ____ 60__00__02 ___ 062 ____ 178 Final scoring for western contest April 2015 FORECASTER ________________ DEN_PHX_SEA____TOTALS SD _________________________ 96__92__98 _____ 286wxallannj ____________________ 96__96__82 _____ 274Rjay ________________________ 90__78_100 _____ 268N. of Pike ____________________70__96__94 _____ 264Tom ________________________84__94__86 _____ 264 Midlo Snow Maker _____________ 56__98_ 98 _____ 252wxdude64 ___________________100__88__58 _____ 246 Consensus __________________ 100__80__62 _____ 242 Absolute Humidity _____________ 92__80__68 _____ 240 Isotherm _____________________90__80__56 _____ 226 Normal ______________________ 74__68__78 _____ 220 Damage in Tolland _____________66__70__82 _____ 218 RodneyS ____________________100__46__62 _____ 208Roger Smith __________________54__66__78 _____ 198 Donsutherland.1 _______________40__92__62 _____ 194 blazess556 ___________________ 66__64__52 _____ 182Maxim _______________________94__44__38 _____ 176Mallow ______________________ 60__56__48 _____ 164 Stebo _______________________ 46__56__56 _____ 158 bkviking ______ (-2%) _________ 38__64__36 __ 138 (135)ksammut _____________________48__44__36 ______128_______________________________________________________________________ (scores for BKViking are shown before 1 or 2 pt deductions, actual totals in brackets) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 <<<<<< === = (updated) ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-APR = === >>>>>> ... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow FORECASTER ________DCA_NYC_BOS__Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months Tenman Johnson ______274_285_217__ 776 ___259_204_322 __ 785 __1561_ 111 012_0_0__FEB Isotherm ____________ 263_248_242 __ 753 ___228_200_258 __ 686 __1439 ksammut ____________ 265_280_257__ 802 ___192_156_264 __ 612 __1414 RodneyS ____________ 258_182_169 __ 609 ___226_246_270 __ 742 __1351 _ 000 110_0_0 .. Consensus ___________269_186_209 __ 664 ___262_187_224 __ 673 __1337 .. Damage in Tolland ____ 281_216_229 __ 726 __ 234_206_170 __ 610 __1336 Mallow ______________ 273_198_202 __ 673 __ 200_209_254 __ 663 __1336 _ 110 000_0_1__ JANDonSutherland.1 ______ 264_192_213 __ 669 ___229_205_230 __ 664 __1333 _ 100 000_0_1__ MAR wxdude64 ___________ 207_203_202 __ 614 __ 213_193_263 __ 669 __1281Midlo Snow Maker _____ 225_188_166 __ 579 __ 272_157_266 __ 695 __1274 _ 100 011_1_1__APRTom ________________ 248_184_191 __ 623 __ 248_192_210 __ 650 __1273 wxallannj _____________256_192_201 __ 649 __ 257_158_196 __ 611 __1260 _ 001 000_0_0 BKViking _____________225_155_210 __ 590 __ 238_214_203 __ 655 __1245 Absolute Humidity* ____ 209_217_227 __ 653 __ 259_142_171 __ 572 __1225_ 011 000_1_0 blazess556 ___________ 264_156_147 __ 567 __ 256_164_195 __ 615 __1182 Rjay ________________ 208_148_163 __ 519 __ 196_166_182 __ 544 __1063 .. Normal_______________ 210_134_140 __ 484 __ 210_156_196 __ 562 __1046 .. Stebo ________________197_146_137 __ 480 __ 238_116_211 __ 565 __1045 _ 100 000_0_0 N. of Pike ____________ 218_148_159 __ 525 __ 196_126_140 __ 462 ___987 SD __________________ 200_ 84_110 __ 394 __ 226_186_166 __ 578 ___972 Roger Smith ___________ 97_157_216 __ 470 __ 110_164_160 __ 434 ___904 _ 000 110_0_0 Maxim*______________ 183_147_127 __ 457 __ 118_170_152 __ 440 ___897 _ 000 010_0_0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 hudsonvalley21* _______ 184_103_100 __ 387 ___136_ 83_ 134 __ 353 __ 740 _ 000100 metalicwx366 **________ 70 _ 92 _ 96 __ 258 ___ 66 _ 96 _ 42 ___ 204 __ 462 _ 001 010 _ 0 _ 1 mikehobbyst** ________101 _108 _ 71 __ 280 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 50 ___ 136 __ 416 Quixotic1** ___________ 76 _ 49 _ 60 __ 185 ___ 78 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 220 __ 405 Carvers Gap** _________ 63 _ 39 _ 38 __ 140 ___104_ 60 _ 80 ___ 244 __ 384Weatherguy701 *** _____54 _ 28 _ 29 __ 111 ___ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___ 250 __ 361 _ 000 001 _ 0 _ 1 SACRUS ***___________ 78 _ 36 _ 40 __ 154 ___ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___ 162 __ 316H2OTown__Wx ***_____ 56 _ 28 _ 20 ___104 ___ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____ 66 __ 170hockeyinc ***__________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ___ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____ 56 ___ 56Uncle W ***___________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ____00 _ 30 _ 10 ____ 40 ___ 40 _______________________________________ this completes the table above. * to *** have missed one to three months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 Western contest annual updates Jan-Apr 2015 FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL (all 9 in brackets, = ranks) __ best scores (west) Midlo Snow Maker ________234_257_327 ____ 818 ____ (2092) = 2 ________ 1 1 1 __ JAN Isotherm _______________270_255_293 ____ 818 ____ (2257) = 1 Roger Smith ____________ 230_209_293 ____ 732 ____ (1636) =12 ________ 0 1 1 Donsutherland.1 _________ 204_218_253 ____ 675 ____ (2008) = 3 Damage in Tolland _______ 200_247_219 ____ 666 ____ (2002) = 4 ________ 0 1 0 N. of Pike ______________ 217_191_200 ____ 608 ____ (1595) =13 wxdude64 ______________ 276_187_134 ____ 597 ____ (1878) = 6 ________ 1 0 0 Wxallannj _______________214_176_199 ____ 589 ____ (1849) = 7 Mallow _________________136_204_247 ____ 587 ____ (1923) = 5 .. Consensus ______________222_172_171 ____ 565_____ (1902) =6 ________ 2 0 0 .. Tom ___________________158_183_160 ____ 501 ____ (1774) =10 .. Normal _________________192_124_136 ____ 452 ____ (1498) =17 .. Absolute Humidity *_______ 130_140_160 ____ 430 ____ (1655) =11 Maxim*_________________ 134_149_141 ____ 424 ____ (1321) =20 blazess556 ______________ 118_137_164 ____ 419 ____ (1601) =14 ________ 0 0 1 mikehobbyst**___________ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _____ (830) =22 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR SD _____________________150_128_126 ____ 404 ____ (1376) =19 ________ 0 0 0 __ APR RodneyS ________________166_127_111 ____ 404 ____ (1755) = 9 _________ 1 0 0 ksammut ________________144_ 91_131 ____ 366 ____ (1780) = 8 Stebo __________________ 106_122_138 ____ 366 ____ (1411) =18 Rjay ___________________ 120_122_120 ____ 362 ____ (1425) =17 ________ 0 0 1 BKViking ________________ 97_116 _ 90 ____ 303 ____ (1548) =16 hudsonvalley21*__________ 105_ 67 _ 55 ____ 227 _____ (967) =21 H2OTown_Wx***_________ 70 _ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _____ (366) =28 Quixotic.1***_____________ 52_ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _____ (586) =24 Carvers Gap***____________94_ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _____ (556) =25 _________ 1 0 0 metalicwx366 ***__________ 00_ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _____ (590) =23 Uncle W ***______________ 26_ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _____ (130) =29 SACRUS***_______________ 04_ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _____ (392) =27 Weatherguy701*** _________00 _ 08 _ 30 ____ 38 _____ (399) =26 hockeyinc*** _____________ 00 _ 16 _ 08 ____ 24 ______ (80) =30 (not entered in western) Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (1561) =15 ======================================================= * to *** have missed one to three months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 1, 2015 Author Share Posted May 1, 2015 Extreme forecast table updated Jan-Apr 2015 From January to April these months and forecasts have qualified for an extreme forecast decision. 2nd extreme is only cited where it can win under these rules. No entry there means that an extreme forecast has won the month. This was shown last year as an "A" type win and the others were shown as "B" -- this year I am changing the format but not the actual rules. To qualify, either the extreme forecast of same anomaly sign as actual, or second most extreme, must win high score (or tie). When second most extreme wins, the extreme value is assigned a loss in this table. Month __________ Location ___ Anomaly ____ Extreme forecast ____ 2nd extreme ___ W-L decision Jan 2015 _________ NYC ______ -2.7 _______ -3.5 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) RS _ (W) TJ Jan 2015 _________ BOS ______ -2.9 _______ -3.3 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 TJ, met ___ (L) RS (W) TJ,m Jan 2015 _________ IAH ______ -3.3 ________-5.9 Rodney S _____ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) Rod (W) TJ Jan 2015 _________ DEN ______ +3.2 _______+2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.5) ________ (W) Midlo Jan 2015 _________ PHX ______ +2.2 _______ +2.8 Midlo ________ +2.0 Damage __ (L) Mid (W) Dam Jan 2015 _________ SEA ______ +3.1 _______ +2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.4) ________(W) Midlo Feb 2015 _________ DCA ______ -8.7 _______ -3.7 Mikehobbyst ____ (-3.5) ________(W) Mikehobbyst Feb 2015 _________ NYC ______-11.4 _______ -5.3 Mikehobbyst ____ (-4.3) ________(W) Mikehobbyst Feb 2015 _________ BOS ______-12.7 _______ -5.9 Mikehobbyst ____ (-5.2) ________(W) Mikehobbyst Feb 2015 _________ ORD ______-13.1 _______ -4.5 Roger Smith ____ (-3.0) ________(W) Roger Feb 2015 _________ ATL ______ -6.8 ________-3.1 Tenman Johnson _(-2.0) ________(W) Tenman Feb 2015 _________ IAH ______ -3.8 ________-2.2 Tenman Johnson _(-2.1) ________(W) Tenman Feb 2015 _________ PHX ______ +5.9 _______ +4.9 Mikehobbyst ____(+4.7) ________(W) Mikehobbyst Feb 2015 _________ SEA ______ +5.3 _______ +4.5 Roger Smith ____(+3.9) ________(W) Roger Mar 2015 _________ NYC ______ -4.4 ________ -6.3 Mikehobbyst ____-4.6 Abs Hum __ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum Mar 2015 _________ BOS ______ -5.1 ________ -8.9 Mikehobbyst ____ -5.1 Abs Hum _ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum Mar 2015 _________ ATL ______ +3.3 ________+2.7 Roger _________ (+2.1) _______ (W) Roger Mar 2015 _________ DEN ______ +4.6 ________+3.0 Mikehobbyst ___ (+2.1) ________(W) Mike Mar 2015 _________ PHX ______ +7.0 ________ +4.0 Roger ________ (+3.6) ________(W) Roger Mar 2015 _________ SEA ______ +4.0 ________ +3.3 Blazes ________(+3.3, 5% pen) _(W) Blazes Apr 2015 _________ ATL ______ +3.7 ________ +3.9 Damage _______+3.5 (three) ___ (W) Damage, Midlo, Maxim, TJ Apr 2015 _________ IAH ______ +2.9 ________ +2.6 Midlo _________ (+2.5) _______ (W) Midlo Apr 2015 _________ SEA ______ +1.1 ________ +1.1 Rjay __________ (+1.0) _______ (W) Rjay __________________________________________________________________ Note: 23 out of 36 possible cases have qualified for this table. DCA just missed in April, fourth/fifth most extreme forecasts were best. Tenman Johnson _____ 6-0 Mikehobbyst _________ 5-2 Roger Smith _________ 4-2 Midlo Snow Maker ____ 4-1 Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0 Damage in Tolland ____ 2-0 metalicwx366 ________ 1-0 blazess556 __________ 1-0 Maxim ______________1-0 Rjay _______________ 1-0 RodneyS ____________ 0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.