Winter, 2015-2016, after summer 2015..

[Typhoon Tip]

"....FROM MJJ 2015 THROUGH ASO 2015, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST, AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS OF NMME AND IMME GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY IN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT SPRING 2016 AND FOR LARGER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FROM JFM 2016 ONWARD, FOLLOWING OBSERVED DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. GREATER CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM JJA THROUGH ASO 2015 AND ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COAST FROM JAS THROUGH OND 2015, CONSISTENT WITH THE LONGER-LEAD SEASONAL FORECASTS OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED FOR ALL OF ALASKA THROUGH OND 2015, AND FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA INTO DJF 2015/2016. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT YEAR, DUE TO DECADAL CLIMATE TRENDS....."

 

Seems, though, that NCEP's been on a GW autopilot prediction tendency since ...oh, say 1998's whopper warm ENSO year. Finally, as of the more recent five years worth of seasons they've begun admitting that GL-NE climate is often modulated by adjacent polarward indices, that have intraseasonal stochastic behavior that that is both not entirely understood, but certainly far less than predictable, therein... So that's code for caveat emptor in those regions.  

 

One thing I found interesting about their write up is wrt to the PDO, 

 

"THE LATEST MONTHLY VALUE OF THE PDO INDEX FOR FEBRUARY 2015 IS +2.30 WITH HISTORICALLY HIGH POSITIVE VALUES RECORDED FOR DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, 2015. "

 

I am wondering if the season's propensity for sending the atmosphere into a -EPO block much of the time may have something to do with that -- or it could be the opposite, and the EPO and restoring flows imposed SS stressing that redistributed thermocline to some degree (no pun intended).  

 

Anyway, my mind's eye wants this summer to be of the dry NW flow variety... That doesn't mean cool necessarily, but I see a flattish PNAP in the means, which would tend to shunt higher DP events S.  Continental heat can climb into southern Canada around central U.S. ridges and come down searing (if you like heat)...other times, Canadian house cleaning.  Wind squall lines and derechos maybe preferred..

[CoastalWx]

Those GCM's love to torch everyone. As much as next winter is a WAG right now, you have a better shot at guessing ENSO state and going from there, vs those GCMs. I'm surprised they even reference those with a known bias.

[Go Kart Mozart]

They did a kick-azz job with the winter of 14-15, let me tell ya.

[CoastalWx]

The models did ok in Dec, but were generally too warm  for the rest of the time. This is why 500mb plots are a lot more telling. I can guess fairly accurately what the temp pattern looks like vs the horrible srfc temp depiction of those seasonal models.

[ORH_wxman]

Yep, the sfc temp forecasts were awful...it's why we say pay attention to the 5H anomalies.

 

They had New England solidly above normal on many of the climate model forecasts before the winter began.

 

Fail.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yep, the sfc temp forecasts were awful...it's why we say pay attention to the 5H anomalies.

 

They had New England solidly above normal on many of the climate model forecasts before the winter began.

 

Fail.

 

I thought this might be an interesting thread to follow from time to time/check in on, as we work through the summer and next winter starts coming into less than ludicrous range ...more like arrowhead range.  but seriously -

 

I wonder if NCEP grades/keeps track of their forecasts, and if so ... is it in quadrature, or the nation as a whole?  I bet if it is in quads, their worse section has got to be NE.  I don't recall really a winter where they scored better than C- up this way... But not certain of that - haven't been keeping that close of track. Just don't remember anything better. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fascinating observations in the Pacific bringing about needs for headlines...

 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/22/us/pacific-ocean-blob/index.html

 

Sorry for the bump but I did say I wanted to revisit this thread occasionally as the season(s) march(es) on...   I think these warm nodes in the Pacific are related to the EPO blocking biases observed during much of 2013 and 2014-2015 winter seasons, too.  

 

I would be curious to know what is the chicken and egg there.  The article implies that ridging over the west and far NE Pac is causing water to pool and not mix, such that a warm thermocline can be generated. Yeah...longer term patterns of SS stressing does play a role in surface distribution of oceanic heat content, but I'd also like to hear this echoed out of a peer -reviewed source before assuming the causality is pointed in that direction.   

 

Having warm nodes/+ heat content in the NE Pac in general would also promote immediate downstream atmospheric ridging response...  

 

This is why I think we may end up in a flat +PNAP pattern and tendencies of milder warmth, with heat tending to be shunted toward the MA and below back E.  Not all the time, of course... Being because I think the tendency for elevating heights in the W. fully decays ...similar to last summer.  

 

We may be stuck - so to speak - in some sort of multi year climate bias?

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, this may be more a climate forum ..but, I would suggest from a solar cycling perspective, this is probably telling...

 

In early April, officials measured the snowpack in California at a time when it should be the highest. This year it hit an all-time low at 1.4 inches of water content in the snow, just 5% of the annual average. The previous low for April 1 had been 25% in 1977 and 2014. (pdf)

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's hope for plenty of high dew point days . If the trough axis sets up over the Upper Midwest like many long range guys are saying this summer, that should open the door to some nice southerly glow and Bermuda blues as we move they middle and latter summer. So while we may not see much heat.. It may be remembered for its humidity .. With wet ground feedback helping that

[CoastalWx]

I've seen some back and forth on the warm pool. I agree with what Paul Roundy and some others have said regarding the warm pool. The warm pool is likely a  product of the anomalous ridging...and not necessarily causing the ridging out west. The ridging itself had been a nice product of tropical forcing remaining relatively in place in the WPAC between the maritime continent and the dateline. I'm sure the warmer waters make it easier to help feedback on the pattern to a point, but it won't be enough to overwhelm other atmospheric forcing and cause a ridge where otherwise troughing would be..etc.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've seen some back and forth on the warm pool. I agree with what Paul Roundy and some others have said regarding the warm pool. The warm pool is likely a  product of the anomalous ridging...and not necessarily causing the ridging out west. The ridging itself had been a nice product of tropical forcing remaining relatively in place in the WPAC between the maritime continent and the dateline. I'm sure the warmer waters make it easier to help feedback on the pattern to a point, but it won't be enough to overwhelm other atmospheric forcing and cause a ridge where otherwise troughing would be..etc.

 

I tend to agree the more I think about it...  The 100 meters of anomaly depth is probably the key evidence that it's mostly due to sea surface wind stress distribution(s)