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Severe Weather: March 23-25, 2015


brettjrob

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Note how small Moore is compared to the other cities though. Dividing the city size by total tornados and you get a 1 tornado for every 3 miles of city. Topeka sits at around 8, Dec Moines 15, and it goes up from there. Also getting some heavy rain and lightening here in NTX atm

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Just incredible

 

I don't think I've seen so many power flashes in one clip. 

 

 

 

 

 

This tornado here not being warned is a big sign that we still have a long way to go in forecasting tornadoes and as soon as the local affiliates showed a tornado on screen a warning should have been issued as to not get caught with their pants down, didn't something similar happen with the Springfield\Monson Massachusetts tornado happen when even though there was a tornado on the ground in Westfield Massachusetts there was no warning even so this one in Moore was much more clear cut and unintentionally embarrassing

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Track of the Moore Tornado:

 

PreliminaryMoore.png

 

 

Basehunters video of the Sand Springs (Tulsa area) tornado:

 

 

 

 

This is the graphic Tulsa released yesterday on their probs for a warning(s). It looks like they took the expected frontal position based on the data available at the time. However, the front never made it that far into NE OK, possibly due to outflow from previous storms earlier in the day which kept the front more along the Arkansas border. It was still a really good forecast though.

 

CA9JkM_UsAECltt.png

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It really sounds like they were too busy trying to discount the local media saying there was a tornado on the ground. Either way, not good. 5-10 minutes after the tornado was on the ground, the warning finally got issued, and now this. And I never bash the NWS, but this just looks bad...
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It really sounds like they were too busy trying to discount the local media saying there was a tornado on the ground. Either way, not good. 5-10 minutes after the tornado was on the ground, the warning finally got issued, and now this. And I never bash the NWS, but this just looks bad...

 

saw this earlier:

 

https://twitter.com/KOCOdamonlane/status/581100509303586817

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im shocked there was no warning issued and some of those tweets you can just shake your head at wow! Im actually surprised only one person was killed..

 

I don't believe anyone was killed in the Moore storm. The 'Tulsa' (Sand Springs) storm was where there was a fatality. 

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yeah sorry should have wrote after it was otg.. even if noone was killed people could have been because of what they posted before the tornado in oklahoma you should never put something out like that when storms are around because there is always that chance 

A warning was issued, it just took a little while after the tornado was on the ground.

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This tornado here not being warned is a big sign that we still have a long way to go in forecasting tornadoes and as soon as the local affiliates showed a tornado on screen a warning should have been issued as to not get caught with their pants down, didn't something similar happen with the Springfield\Monson Massachusetts tornado happen when even though there was a tornado on the ground in Westfield Massachusetts there was no warning even so this one in Moore was much more clear cut and unintentionally embarrassing

My understanding is that the delayed TOR for the Springfield tornado was due to range folding of the BOX radar and not having the ENX radar cued up, possibly due to NOAAPORT latency. The BAF metar reads tornado but I believe it may have been augmented with the manual ob a bit after the fact.

Also they probably did not have the Springfield affiliate stations. IIRC even after the tornado was seen on camera the warning did not come out. Only after the VCP change or until someone saw the beast of a sig on ENX. I would argue that was much more clear cut tornado than this one in Moore actually.

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My understanding is that the delayed TOR for the Springfield tornado was due to range folding of the BOX radar and not having the ENX radar cued up, possibly due to NOAAPORT latency. The BAF metar reads tornado but I believe it may have been augmented with the manual ob a bit after the fact.

Also they probably did not have the Springfield affiliate stations. IIRC even after the tornado was seen on camera the warning did not come out. Only after the VCP change or until someone saw the beast of a sig on ENX. I would argue that was much more clear cut tornado than this one in Moore actually.

 

Yeah, I would say the 2011 Springfield MA case was far more clear-cut. It was more of a traditional environment for surface-based tornadic supercells, I believe the SPC tornado probabilities were higher, and the radar signature itself was far more obvious for a longer period of time.

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I do not have a screencap, but during the Moore storm, one news station had a radar display up with those red circles signifying rotation/circulation: about 6-10 circles within a 10 mile stretch along the storm front, hadn't seen that many at once before in such a small area.

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Funnel above the airport (Tulsa?) with debris falling on the reporter from Newson6.

 

We were in our chase vehicle directly south of the airport on 244 at that time.

We got hit with high winds out of the south then slammed by very high winds out the north with the drivers side window being completely blown in and debris in the air as high as I could see above the highway. We immediately bailed onto the Mingo exit and sought shelter at a PIzza Hut.

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My understanding is that the delayed TOR for the Springfield tornado was due to range folding of the BOX radar and not having the ENX radar cued up, possibly due to NOAAPORT latency. The BAF metar reads tornado but I believe it may have been augmented with the manual ob a bit after the fact.

Also they probably did not have the Springfield affiliate stations. IIRC even after the tornado was seen on camera the warning did not come out. Only after the VCP change or until someone saw the beast of a sig on ENX. I would argue that was much more clear cut tornado than this one in Moore actually.

 

Ironically enough the radar was in VCP 212 to mitigate range folding issues, but the SZ algorithms do produce a band of range folding at the start of the second trip (guess where the tornado formed?).

 

As much as it pains me to say it there was probably a lack of situational awareness that day. At worst BOX can see the lowest 4 tilts from ALY in 8 bit resolution (more than enough to see that signature). They issued an initial TOR for a northern supercell that was also preoccupying forecasters. Plus there was definitely confusion about the BAF METAR funnel cloud report. If you take a look at the raw METAR there is a B23 E24 remark. Then later on there is another SPECI with E12, but no corresponding BMM to with it.

 

The TOR was issued at 2030z, the tornado was estimated to have touched down at 2017z, and the FC report was 2024z.

 

Honestly, it's probably not all the different from Moore. It certainly appears as if there was a lack of situational awareness regarding tornado potential given the social media posts before the event occurred. Although, I can only imagine what happens at OUN when the chasers start inundating the office with reports.

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