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Severe Weather: March 23-25, 2015


brettjrob

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People are absolutely destroying OUN on their facebook page already. They had just posted about 20 minutes before the tornado that the storms will have little to no tornado potential.

I saw the same tweet. Said no warnings west of OKC and none expected, all storms were well behind cold front.

30 min later, tornado in Moore. Oops

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I saw the same tweet. Said no warnings west of OKC and none expected, all storms were well behind cold front.

30 min later, tornado in Moore. Oops

Yeah, the problem is they didn't expect the storms to catch the front. When you work in definite terms you corner yourself into getting it wrong more often than not. They should have seen the front slowing down and the storm accelerating eastward though. When that started to happen the tornado potential increased. 

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Yeah, the problem is they didn't expect the storms to catch the front. When you work in definite terms you corner yourself into getting it wrong more often than not. They should have seen the front slowing down and the storm accelerating eastward though. When that started to happen the tornado potential increased. 

 

9 out of 10 times the storms don't catch up to the front because the outflow reinforces the cold frontal surge, but the one time you say the storms are not going to catch up is the 1 out of 10 times that they do.

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Yeah, the problem is they didn't expect the storms to catch the front. When you work in definite terms you corner yourself into getting it wrong more often than not. They should have seen the front slowing down and the storm accelerating eastward though. When that started to happen the tornado potential increased.

Saw on Twitter that apparently the sirens went off in the city before the actual warning was issued. TV mets were all over it while Norman played catch up.

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Saw on Twitter that apparently the sirens went off in the city before the actual warning was issued. TV mets were all over it while Norman played catch up.

Yeah I was watching the feeds, pretty incredible. But the thing they have that NWS doesn't have is eyes in the sky, the choppers were on this thing very fast.

 

9 out of 10 times the storms don't catch up to the front because the outflow reinforces the cold frontal surge, but the one time you say the storms are not going to catch up is the 1 out of 10 times that they do.

Very true, but the big thing I have learned when it comes to making forecasts. Try not to use definite language. There is always that time it will not work out for you. If they had said the tornado thread was low/very low at the present time, that would have been better. It at least allows for the opportunity of ramping up if and when needed.

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No power here, tethered to my phone so limited bandwidth.  Not good.

Western AR needs to stay weather aware the next couple of hours.  I'm streaming some local news here in Tulsa, definitely some damage in/around the Sand Springs area.

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Wow... that's rather apocalyptic-looking.

 

Certainly more activity today than I anticipated, I'll admit.

I agree, I chose not to chase today...oops.

Wondering if we won't have an active spring though.  So far this year as a nation has been very very quiet.

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So I believe 2-3 confirmed today thus far? One thing I will say, which I saw by Stebo, it is hard to be 100% definite when issuing a forcast, no matter how experienced the forecaster(s) is(are). I didn't catch everything that went down in Moore as I was desktop chasing Tulsa region, but I and a few others I talked kind of thought those that were blowing up near OKC were going to be completely undercut and not yeild much other that wind and hail. Just goes to show how hard it is still to forecast/nowcast these systems given the unprecidented amount of data we can get these days. Thought's with those in the OKC and Tulsa regions.

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So I believe 2-3 confirmed today thus far? One thing I will say, which I saw by Stebo, it is hard to be 100% definite when issuing a forcast, no matter how experienced the forecaster(s) is(are). I didn't catch everything that went down in Moore as I was desktop chasing Tulsa region, but I and a few others I talked kind of thought those that were blowing up near OKC were going to be completely undercut and not yeild much other that wind and hail. Just goes to show how hard it is still to forecast/nowcast these systems given the unprecidented amount of data we can get these days. Thought's with those in the OKC and Tulsa regions.

This point confuses me a little. I've heard several times today that the cells were only able to produce strong mesos after they caught up with the front. What am I overlooking? Were there two distinct boundaries?

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This point confuses me a little. I've heard several times today that the cells were only able to produce strong mesos after they caught up with the front. What am I overlooking? Were there two distinct boundaries?

When the storms caught up with the front they were able to tap into moisture rich boundary inflow from the south.

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This point confuses me a little. I've heard several times today that the cells were only able to produce strong mesos after they caught up with the front. What am I overlooking? Were there two distinct boundaries?

Basically when they were behind the front the cold air at the surface creates an inversion and you can't get the surface buoyancy to produce the tornadoes, once the storm caught the front the air mass didn't have an inversion and had ample buoyancy to produce tornadoes. The Tulsa cells were ahead of the front as was the one in AR which is why it was able to produce tornadoes.

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Basically when they were behind the front the cold air at the surface creates an inversion and you can't get the surface buoyancy to produce the tornadoes, once the storm caught the front the air mass didn't have an inversion and had ample buoyancy to produce tornadoes. The Tulsa cells were ahead of the front as was the one in AR which is why it was able to produce tornadoes.

That makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.

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