andyhb Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 A reminder that the 6th tornado forecasting lecture with Rich T. is about to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Signal for later today is a bit unclear. If a few (or any) storms can remain discrete/semi-discrete in central to northeast OK, they could take advantage of a fairly robust environment for late March. (Especially given seasonal trends) The high res models show a mixed convective mode going linear fairly quickly. The 8z HRRR pops a fairly strong, albeit cluster cell near PNC. Another cell fires near OKC shortly thereafter. Dews in the upper 50s are already being advected into SE OK and backed low-level winds. My guess right now would be a few storms with severe hail and damaging winds. Not 100% sold on the tornado threat yet, but think a brief tor or two is about a 50/50 possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Moderate risk out now... looks like for hail more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 New outlook brings all of OKC metro into moderate risk area and backs 5% tornado area into all of central OK. NWS Tulsa putting out interesting severe weather probability forecasts -- probability of a severe/tornado warning being issued. OUN doing a 20z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yeah that Tulsa graphic is very specific... (hotlinked so it will change and is time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yeah that Tulsa graphic is very specific... (hotlinked so it will change and is time sensitive) Comment from NWS Tulsa on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 FWD doing a 20z sounding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Springfield, MO doing an 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Mesoscale discussions about watches are coming out now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0139.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0140.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Springfield, MO doing an 18z Was a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 p.m. local time. Only a 20% probability of two or more tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 p.m. local time. Only a 20% probability of two or more tornadoes. Yet a strongly worded discussion (comparatively) mentioning the potential for a few tornadoes including a QLCS tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 p.m. local time. Only a 20% probability of two or more tornadoes. Main concern is for very large hail, just as was initially expected a couple days ago. Have to wait for better and deeper moisture for sig tors. Anyway, it is a start to this lackluster season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Main concern is for very large hail, just as was initially expected a couple days ago. Have to wait for better and deeper moisture for sig tors. Anyway, it is a start to this lackluster season. Has anyone else noticed the graphics put up by the Tulsa office with a 33% chance of a tornado moving to the west and north of Tulsa? Similarly there's > 60% of a SVR storm as well. I've never seen them try to nail down probabilities this specific with almost no convection ongoing. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image_full1.gif Pretty impressive prediction should this come anywhere close to panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Has anyone else noticed the graphics put up by the Tulsa office with a 33% chance of a tornado moving to the west and north of Tulsa? Similarly there's > 60% of a SVR storm as well. I've never seen them try to nail down probabilities this specific with almost no convection ongoing. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image_full1.gif Pretty impressive prediction should this come anywhere close to panning out. Rather bold on their attempt to highlight their concerns. Storms intensifying sw of Tulsa now. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Has anyone else noticed the graphics put up by the Tulsa office with a 33% chance of a tornado moving to the west and north of Tulsa? Similarly there's > 60% of a SVR storm as well. I've never seen them try to nail down probabilities this specific with almost no convection ongoing. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image_full1.gif Pretty impressive prediction should this come anywhere close to panning out. See the discussion on the previous page (and the top of this page). It's the probability of them issuing a severe/tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Sapulpa, SW side of Tulsa, is getting golf-ball size hail. I'm in downtown Tulsa, just crazy lightning and thunder right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 See the discussion on the previous page (and the top of this page). It's the probability of them issuing a severe/tornado warning. Right, like I said they usually don't get that specific before convection blows up. I like the more aggressive stance by htem this year just wondering what's driving the changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The supercell a few miles east of Springdale AR has a shot at being the first producer of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Right, like I said they usually don't get that specific before convection blows up. I like the more aggressive stance by htem this year just wondering what's driving the changes? They say they've been doing this "for a while" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Embedded supercell in the mess of convection WNW of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Embedded supercell in the mess of convection WNW of Tulsa. And there's the tornado warning for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 We may have problems in Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Tulsa storm: AT 519 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Looks like the shut out is broken CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TULSA...EASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CREEKCOUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...AT 519 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATEDNEAR WESTPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 113 WWUS54 KTSA 252221 SVSTSA SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 OKC037-113-117-143-252245- /O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150325T2245Z/ CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK- 521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TULSA... EASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CREEK COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT... AT 519 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Circulation getting its act together quickly west of Tulsa. Thankfully still not into densely populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 523 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 ARC007-015-087-252300- /O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150325T2300Z/ BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR- 523 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MADISON... WESTERN CARROLL AND EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT... AT 521 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HOBBS STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Large tornado live, www.newson6.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Looks like NWS Tulsa absolutely nailed it with their earlier predictions...Fantastic work by those guys wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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