Poll: 2015 Severe Weather in New England

[Quincy]

What are your thoughts on Day 1 MRGL, SLGT and MDT risk severe outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center in New England this year? The poll will close at 11:59 p.m. March 31st and I will post the entries. (Please include specific dates and exact numbers of each outlook to be entered into the contest)

 

Last year, the SEE TEXT outlook is equivalent to the MRGL outlook going forward. This poll considers only Day 1 outlooks and not outlooks from days 2-8, as they could be eliminated prior to a potential non-event.

 

2014 stats:

Date of first SEE TEXT outlook - May 10th 1630z (SW New England)

• 16 SEE TEXT outlooks (not including days that had prior or subsequent SLGT)

Date of first SLGT outlook - May 27th 1300z (W New England)

• 17 total SLGT outlooks

No MDT risk outlooks - Last was September 8th, 2012 (Much of New England)

 

The winner will simply have the least error points. There will be one error point for each day off and number of outlooks off. I'm still working out some thoughts for a potential tiebreaker. Any ideas? I toyed with the MDT risk category, but that may not help. Maybe total number of tornadoes in New England in 2015?

[Quincy]

I'll dive in first with my guesses:

First MRGL risk: April 22nd (pattern begins to break down)

First SLGT risk: May 4th

One MDT risk: July 8th

MRGL risks: 20

SLGT risks: 17

[weatherwiz]

1st MRGL:  April 17th

1st SLGT:  May 15th

MRGL risks:  22

SLGT risks:  17

[ineedsnow]

First MRGL risk: april 26th

First SLGT risk: may 17th

MDT risk: june 3rd and july 13th

MRGL risks: 16

SLGT risks: 11

[Damage In Tolland]

Since when do we have risks in April? lol.. And especially this year with the cold sst'.. Any S or SW wind will kill chances . Might have to wait till June

[Quincy]

Since when do we have risks in April? lol.. And especially this year with the cold sst'.. Any S or SW wind will kill chances . Might have to wait till June

4/28/2011

4/29/2002

For SLGT risks. Plenty of SEE TEXT outlooks in the month of April over the years.

[Damage In Tolland]

Better chance of snow in May this year than severe

[weatherwiz]

should have a question for a high risk 

[Quincy]

should have a question for a high risk 

It's only happened once and barely grazed western New England. It's more common to have snow in May in New England than a high risk at any point in the year.

[andyhb]

Since when do we have risks in April? lol.. And especially this year with the cold sst'.. Any S or SW wind will kill chances . Might have to wait till June

 

I think you mean SE.

 

Cold SSTAs off the Atlantic coast aren't going to prevent a severe weather chance if the setup is conducive.

[weatherwiz]

I think you mean SE.

 

Cold SSTAs off the Atlantic coast aren't going to prevent a severe weather chance if the setup is conducive.

 

He's right for CT.  Long Island Sound can be a killer

[weatherwiz]

It's only happened once and barely grazed western New England. It's more common to have snow in May in New England than a high risk at any point in the year.

 

if some areas can get 100'' in a 3-week span, we can get a high risk!

[codfishsnowman]

marginal risk may 10, slight risk may 25, mod risk june 15, high risk july 2nd....total marginals 12, total slight 8, total mods 3, total high 1

[BostonWX]

We got hail twice last summer here which was pretty impressive. Prob equates to a 100 inch snowfall in 3 wks

[Roger Smith]

So now I have to remember what I voted? Goes back to see ...

 

First marginal risk around April 11th.

 

First slight risk either then or April 12th.

 

Two moderate risks around May 25th and June 8th

 

Marginal risks 17 slight risks 13

 

In general quite an active season as rapid warming of central plains May-June pushes most active severe weather zone north into northern plains, Great Lakes, always a good recipe for New England to cash in.

 

Just a question though, is it not possible for the first marginal risk to be after the first slight risk depending on how they call them? How do you count it if a marginal risk is updated during the day to a slight risk? This is what I am foreseeing with my similar dates above.

[radarman]

It's less than 50/50 that the UMass anemometer gets a gust greater than it did twice last week, 13 hours apart, on CAA.

[Quincy]

Just a question though, is it not possible for the first marginal risk to be after the first slight risk depending on how they call them? How do you count it if a marginal risk is updated during the day to a slight risk? This is what I am foreseeing with my similar dates above.

Technically, the first MRGL and SLGT risks could fall on the same day. For the total counts, I consider individual days and the "highest" risk issued on that particular day.

[Quincy]

Voting continues for two more days! So far, most seem to think the season will start late and be quieter than average. With that said, 70% also believe there will be at least one moderate risk outlook covering New England at some point this spring/summer.

[Quincy]

First marginal risk verifies as 1633Z April 3rd for southwestern Connecticut.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol

[Quincy]

Since when do we have risks in April? lol.. And especially this year with the cold sst'.. Any S or SW wind will kill chances . Might have to wait till June

Lol

[Damage In Tolland]

There won't be a storm,, why a risk?

[radarman]

As if SW CT is New England.

[weatherwiz]

As if SW CT is New England.

[codfishsnowman]

i know ot but was watching june 27 1992 videos of the Fritch Tx tornadoes...esp no.2......pretty wild stuff!

[Roger Smith]

How is this going? Where I live, we have not seen a cumulonimbus cloud in the sky yet this year from what I can recall, so you must be ahead of that.

[Quincy]

Stats to-date:

 

First MRGL risk: April 3rd 1633z 

First SLGT risk: May 27th 0551z (same date as 2014)

No MDT risks

MRGL risks: 18 (does not include days that became SLGT and/or ENH risk)

SLGT risks: 10 (does include ENH risks)

ENH risks: June 23rd and July 20th 

 

Still some time to go and September can occasionally produce a higher end risk, such as an ENH or even MDT, as the last MDT risk was September 8th, 2012.

[Quincy]

Now up to 22 MRGL risks for the year, but none since October 28th.

[Quincy]

Now up to 22 MRGL risks for the year, but none since October 28th.

No changes since then, so the final tallies stand at 22 MRGL, 10 SLGT and 2 ENH risk outlooks.

 

Also "just" three tornadoes reported in New England in 2015, two below the 25-year average of five:

https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/665186624335048705

 

For further discussion on the 2016 season, visit Wiz's Countdown to May 1 thread.

[weatherwiz]

No changes since then, so the final tallies stand at 22 MRGL, 10 SLGT and 2 ENH risk outlooks.

 

Also "just" three tornadoes reported in New England in 2015, two below the 25-year average of five:

https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/665186624335048705

 

For further discussion on the 2016 season, visit Wiz's Countdown to May 1 thread.

 

2015 sucked.  Hopefully 2016 is much better.  Plus now that I have a car I can go whenever and wherever