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Spring Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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The SE corner of that box is about right on top of my house.

They expanded the watch. A little closer, we'll see.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 278   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   410 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      NORTHERN NEW JERSEY     EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL     1000 PM EDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE   SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER CENTRAL PA   WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO RISK...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT IS   PROBABLY DAMAGING WINDS.   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF   ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALLENTOWN   PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/SERN NY/FAR WRN MA AND CT

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 274...

VALID 082224Z - 090000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 274 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NY...FAR
WESTERN MA...AND PERHAPS AFFECT FAR WESTERN CT.

DISCUSSION...AT 2205Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM DELAWARE COUNTY NY TO
LUZERNE COUNTY PA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 30
KT. ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 274 HAS GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZED...GIVEN AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE SUGGESTS
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WLY 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 2-3.5 KM AGL AT BGM VAD.
HOWEVER...BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA/CT
AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS PER OKX/BOX SUGGESTS A TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS BAND OF STORMS ADVANCES EWD.

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Where is that t-storm line gonna set up this afternoon is the $64k question.  I need to get out and do a training ride for a few hours with my daughter because she's going into the state finals this weekend the point leader for her division.  Should we stay close to home, head south or east or...?

I think you're fine until after 4PM unless one of these rogue hit or miss storms happen to hit you.

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As much as I hate summer, nights like tonight still evoke a certain nostalgia for simpler times. Humid, breezy out of the south, perpetual distant thunder with occasional heavy showers.

 

I'm really hoping that line of storms to our west can maintain itself long enough to slosh across the river. It's been a couple years since I've had a good opportunity to snap some nighttime lightning photos. 00z soundings are extremely pedestrian on instability, but MLLRs might be steep enough to preserve some boomers.

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Just got back from my sons signing ceremony at his high school, he's going to play lacrosse at Lincoln Memorial University in the fall, and its rather humid out. Sorry for the brag post :-)

Why brag about humidity? Kinda weird.

Congrats, thats awesome.

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Why brag about humidity? Kinda weird.

Congrats, thats awesome.

Ever been to the New England forum?

 

Just got back from my sons signing ceremony at his high school, he's going to play lacrosse at Lincoln Memorial University in the fall, and its rather humid out.  Sorry for the brag post :-)  

Congrats from me too, that's great news!

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