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Spring Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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Strong storm cell here. Heavy rain and CTG lighting. Wind gusts around 40-50 mph.  No hail

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
545 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NYC071-272200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150527T2200Z/
ORANGE NY-
545 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 544 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GARDNERTOWN...OR NEAR NEWBURGH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWBURGH...NEW WINDSOR AND GARDNERTOWN AROUND 550 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTONVILLE...ORANGE LAKE...FIRTHCLIFFE...CORNWALL ON HUDSON...
BALMVILLE AND VAILS GATE.

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Another round today.

 

A section of Upton's AFD

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT SHOW UP ON IR FROM ERN ME THRU THE
CWA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE THRU THIS MRNG...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTS IN MINUSCULE SBCAPE INVOF THE
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE.
AS A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MRNG.

THE SECOND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTN. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID
LVL SHRTWV SHOWING UP ON STLT ACROSS WRN NY STATE IS ON THE
DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SBCAPE INCREASES...THE WAVE
SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS
SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE FROM NERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO
INTERIOR CT AND THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE
LATEST DATA. LI AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING
WITH STORM MOTION SELY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BRN AROUND 45 AT
18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N
OF THE CWA ATTM WHERE THE EHI IS HIGHER.

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